4/6 - 3 Round what I think will happen mock
4/20 - 7 Round what I think should happen mock with explanations/analysis
4/25 - The Draft
Well, a few days early to my expected date but that's good.
Do me a solid and try to read what I have written in this first part so you don't ask a question that has been answered already and make yourself look foolish. I started this on Sunday, March 31 so any events, trades, etc that take place after that will not be reflected in this mock.
This is my “what I think will happen mock” meaning, I am throwing my rankings of players out the window, my team needs out the window and attempting to look purely at what has been said by teams, what the “experts” are saying about teams/prospects, etc. I have included a few trades listed below as well.
Trades
1) Jacksonville trades the #2 overall pick to the Miami Dolphins for the #12 and #79 overall picks in the 2013 draft and the Dolphins’ second round pick in 2014.
2) Detroit trades the #5 overall pick to the Buffalo Bills for the #8 and the #105 (round 4) overall picks.
3) Tampa Bay trades the #13 and #44 overall picks to the New York Jets for CB Darrelle Revis.
4) Cleveland trades the #6 overall pick to the New York Jets for the #9 and #106 (round 4) overall picks.
5) New England trades the #29 overall pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for the #35 and #136 (round 5) overall picks.
Round 11. Kansas City (2-14) – Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Every year, eventually the first overall pick becomes obvious and this year is no exception. The Chiefs are going to grab Joeckel and try to trade Albert and is not, play Albert at LT and Joeckel at RT this year and allow Albert to walk next year while Joeckel can step into that starting LT spot with ease.
2. Miami – from Jacksonville (2-14) *1 – Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
TRADE: Miami has a handful of picks and in this scenario, Jacksonville isn’t exactly all that in love with someone so when Miami comes knocking, Jacksonville is happy to take this trade (if Jacksonville doesn’t want to make this move and they do not select Fisher, look for Miami to turn to Oakland next and attempt the same trade which I believe Oakland would jump at with little hesitation). Miami lost Jake Long, that’s OK, he was quickly declining and asking for way too much money, so they move up, assure themselves a top talent and solidify the left tackle spot for years and years to come with Eric Fisher.
4/1 Update: Seems as if Jacksonville is quite interested in Sharrif Floyd so this trade may happen with Oakland.
3. Oakland (4-12) – Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
As you can see 2 picks down, Buffalo wants to move up to secure Geno. They may move here to leap frog Philly so it seems like it’s not needed now. The Raiders just need talent. They need talent at almost every single position on an NFL roster. Floyd is arguably the top talent overall in this draft so the Raiders actually make a smart decision.
4. Philadelphia (4-12) – Star Lotulelei, NT, Utah
Philly doesn’t get a top offensive lineman, they have shown more interest in EJ Manuel than Geno Smith, they’re switching their defense and they desperately need a true nose tackle to fill the middle of their DLine. Star has recently received nothing but positive new about his heart condition and he is the top talent overall in this draft imo so the Eagles make a great move, get a great talent and fill a need to make this transition to a 3-4 easier.
5. Buffalo – from Detroit (4-12) *2 – Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
TRADE: It seems that Detroit has their hearts set on one of those top offensive linemen. Well they don’t get one and when Buffalo wants to move up, Detroit is happy to drop down only a few slots and add an extra pick. Buffalo added Kevin Kolb recently but that isn’t going to stop them from doing whatever it takes to get Geno Smith. I was a little generous with this trade, having Buffalo only give up a 4th rounder (although it is only a move of 3 spots so it’s not a major one) but I believe they have set themselves up for a major asking price when they start asking to move up simply because teams know how interested they are in Geno now. Anyway, they want to leapfrog Cleveland and Arizona to make sure they get the QB they want and they do.
6. New York Jets – from Cleveland (5-11) *4 – Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
TRADE: See trade #3/*3 as well for more info here. Cleveland is in kind of a tough spot here. There really isn’t a great fit for them. Milliner would be a nice addition to their defense, they could add a piece on offense, but when the Jets want to move up to get Milliner as a replacement for Revis (again, see trade #3/*3), the Browns happily drop back a few spots to see how the next few picks play out and give themselves another pick later on. The Jets however, find themselves with a few picks after trading Revis (*3) along with a need for a new corner. They take the plunge, sacrifice a 4th round pick and replenish their secondary, at least a little bit, with the selection of Milliner.
7. Arizona (5-11) – Dion Jordan, OLB/DE, Oregon
This pick could very easily be Lane Johnson but the Cardinals have been true to their word about drafting the BPA (that makes sense though) over the past few drafts. They stick to their guns here and take Dion Jordan. They need pass rushing help across from Sam Acho since Schofield has been less than effective and has trouble staying healthy.
8. Detroit – from Buffalo (6-10) *2 – Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
TRADE: This trade was discussed above at Buffalo’s pick (#5). Detroit has a few needs they could address here. They could easily go Ziggy Ansah and add a dynamic pass rusher, Lane Johnson or Chance Warmack to help their OLine but they go with Tavon Austin knowing that this draft class is much deeper at pass rush and oline than it is at receiver. Austin has been receiving quite a bit of top 10 buzz lately and Detroit confirms that here. They need help at receiver with Titus Young going bat shit crazy and Austin is the absolute PERFECT complement to Calvin Johnson. If Reggie Bush can produce just a little bit in the run game and with the addition of Austin, the Lions can very easily have the most explosive offensive in the entire NFL.
9. Cleveland – from New York Jets (6-10) *4 – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
TRADE: Trade was discussed above at New York’s pick (#6). Cleveland is again in a tough spot here. There’s really just no player that truly fits great for them. If I was in charge of the Browns, I would select Chance Warmack here and be happy to have one of the best guard prospects to ever enter the NFL. But, I believe the Browns will go in a different direction and select Patterson to give Weeden/Mallett a weapon rather than protection. Can’t fault the Browns at all here though. Patterson has the highest ceiling of any receiver in this year’s draft and he could be an incredible talent with a little bit of time to develop. With Horton in charge of Cleveland’s already pretty solid defense and their offense starting to gain some nice pieces, the AFC North better be on high alert.
10. Tennessee (6-10) – Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
Tennessee has said they wanted a corner but with Dee off the board, they will go with Chance Warmack and boost their offensive line even more. The interior of their line was absolute garbage last year and was a contributor of CJ’s failures (CJ being a hunk of shit doesn’t help either but that’s for another time.
) They signed one of the best guards in the NFL (Andy Levitre) and now they add the top guard prospect to ever enter the NFL draft and they turn one of the worst offensive lines into one of the best very quickly.
11. San Diego (7-9) – Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
This one is easy. San Diego’s oline is garbage, they must improve it, there isn’t another player on the board who makes sense, whichever top offensive lineman is available at this pick, that will be the selection.
12. Jacksonville – from Miami (7-9) *1 – Ziggy Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU
TRADE: Trade was discussed above at Miami’s pick (#2). Well well well, would you look at this. Jacksonville may have taken Ziggy Ansah #2 overall. They pass on him to make a trade with Miami, add a pick and look what happens, Ziggy falls. What happens at the #2 overall pick will drastically alter where a few different players go in this draft and in this scenario, the Jaguars are rewarded by Ziggy’s fall.
13. New York Jets – from Tampa Bay (7-9) *3 – Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU
TRADE: The Jets take Tampa’s offer of this year’s first and second round picks for Revis, they move up from their pick to replace Revis and now they turn to their need for a pass rushing presence. It’s weird; to see good, intelligent moves being made by the Jets. Maybe Rex Ryan decided he better start doing something right if he wants to keep his job?
14. Carolina (7-9) – Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
Carolina desperately needs help at DT, Richardson is a dynamic and incredibly talented player, it’s a match made in heaven.
15. New Orleans (7-9) – Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
The Saints are making the move to a 3-4. They don’t exactly have the talent on their roster to support that move fully. They need a player who can put constant pressure on the opposing QB. Jones had some medical red flags but the Saints will take the risk to get the once thought to be best overall player in this draft. Jones has the ability to put pressure on the QB every down and drop back into coverage.
16. St. Louis (7-8-1) – Kenny Vaccaro, FS, Texas
St. Louis has a few needs and could go in a few directions with this pick. Safety is one of their largest needs so they address it immediately with the best safety from this class in Vaccaro.
17. Pittsburgh (8-8) – Bjoern Werner, DE/OLB, Florida State
Pittsburgh has a few needs they need to address and their aging defense is one of them. I’d love to see them take Jonathan Cyprien to be Troy’s successor but they won’t. They don’t take secondary needs early in the draft. So, they go with the top pass rushing option in Werner (which still isn’t a bad choice, just not what I’d like to see) and add a new, young, talented name to fall in line with the long list of names that have been a part of the Steelers’ historic defense.
18. Dallas (8-8) – Datone Jones, DE/DT, UCLA
Dallas is changing to a 4-3, Datone Jones can play a DE or a DT in the 4-3, I mean how can you not want him on your team? They need both positions, this allows them to see what falls to them later and select a better DT or DE in the later rounds rather than being forced to take one of the other.
19. New York Giants (9-7) – D.J. Fluker, OT/G, Alabama
The Giants realize they have offensive line issues here. There are a few defensive pieces they could take here but Eli is their franchise and they need to protect him. He has the weapons, he needs the protection, Fluker can step in from day one and play RT or either guard position.
20. Chicago (10-6) – Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State
Chicago needs help on the offensive line and at the linebacker position, even with their acquisitions through free agency; they need to address those positions early in the draft. Arthur brown is a great pick for the Bears because he can play inside our outside linebacker in the 4-3 very successfully.
21. Cincinnati (10-6) – Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
They resign Maualuga even though he was awful last season. Burfict was fantastic but they need that third guy. Ogletree is a lot like Burfict in the sense that they both can play inside our out in the Bengals system. So, this will allow them to move Rey back outside and then mix and match Burfict and Ogletree as they see fit and give their defense a new dynamic.
22. St. Louis - from Washington (10-6) – Keenan Allen, WR, California
They took care of a major need on defense with their first pick now the Rams address another glaring issue. Sam Bradford, even when they had Amendola, has no weapons! He has no one to throw the ball to. Keenan Allen was once regarded as the top receiver in this draft (and still can make a case for that title). This pick is going to make Bradford a very happy man.
23. Minnesota (10-6) – Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
The Vikings need someone better next to Kevin Williams, Sylvester Williams is one of the top talents on the board, it’s a good pick that makes sense.
24. Indianapolis (11-5) – Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
This pick could be a couple of things. It will either be a RT, pass rusher, corner or NT. It will all depend on who is available. The top of those needs is a tackle to protect Luck but next in line is a corner. Indy’s corner play was less than good last year so they jump at the chance to select Rhodes with this pick
25. Minnesota - from Seattle (11-5) – DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
They signed Greg Jennings but they still need receiver help. Hopkins is a very solid talent and the fact that he won’t have to be the #1 yet will only help him become an even better player because he’ll have time to learn.
26. Green Bay (11-5) – Jonathan Cooper, G/C, North Carolina
Green Bay is absolutely cumming in their pants because Cooper has fallen. That’s no bad mark on Cooper, there’s just not a lot of demand for interior offensive linemen. Saturday retired, they need a center, Cooper is an elite talent, this is a great matchup.
27. Houston (12-4) – Tank Carradine, DE/OLB, Florida State
Houston could do in a number of directions here but I have them adding another dynamic pass rusher to go along side Watt and give them an incredibly powerful pass rushing unit.
28. Denver (13-3) – Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
This is just another smart selection, taking a good talent to fill a position of need. Not much to say here.
29. Philadelphia – from New England (12-4) *5 – E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida State
TRADE: Remember I said the Eagles are showing more interest in Manuel than Geno? Well here you go. There’s always a few teams who jump back into the end of the first round and the Patriots are a typical trade partner for those teams. Chip Kelly pushed for Manuel hard at Oregon and he’s going to do the same here in the NFL. It’s a good fit; Manuel can run Kelly’s system very well. Vick isn’t the answer, Dixon is a backup of course, bring in EJ and move forward.
30. Atlanta (13-3) – Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
Atlanta needs quite a few pieces on defense. Trufant is an incredible talent and is going to immediately bolster the Falcons’ pass defense. He has good instincts so when the Falcons run into the read option again, they won’t be toyed with like they’re a bunch of pop warner kids playing in the NFL. Trufant is a guy who can read and react very quickly and realize he can leave his coverage assignment to go knock the shit out of the QB.
31. San Francisco (11-4-1) – Jonathan Cyprien, SS, Florida International
The Niners have been linked to Cyprien on a few occasions. Although they have a number of draft picks, I believe, with the fear the Ravens may want to snatch up Cyprien, they’ll go ahead and make this selection before addressing other needs.
32. Baltimore (10-6) – Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State
Ravens have said they want to attend to needs on the offensive line a few times. Although they have some more pressing needs on defense, they’ve made some solid FA moves to stop the bleeding and they can afford to make this selection now. Watson is an incredible talent who can immediately step in and play RT as good as anyone and if the Ravens are feeling ballsy, he could start at LT from day one and learn on the job.
Post too long, round 2 and 3 in the next post.