This was asked for so here it is. This is simply who I believe each team should and should not draft with their first pick and why.
1. Los Angeles Rams via Tennessee (3-13) -
Do Draft: Jared Goff, QB, California
The Rams have shown their hand finally and will select Jared Goff with the first overall pick. This is the best case because they believe in Goff clearly so if they think he's their guy then he's their guy and I can't fault them for it. I do not understand it though. Goff is more ready now but his ceiling is lower than Wentz' by quite a bit and I just don't understand. I hope I'm wrong, I really do because I actually like the Rams but I believe this is a mistake.
Do Not Draft: Anyone other than a QB
If the Rams draft any position besides QB I'll be fucking floored and if you're a Rams' fan you may as well just quit.
2. Philadelphia Eagles via Cleveland (3-13) -
Do Draft: Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
Wentz should go #1 but since the Rams have made their decision the Eagles made their move. Both teams overpaid for these very uncertain Qbs when there are some much more capable options in next year's draft but the Eagles believe in Wentz, gave up a lot for him so they have to take him.
Do Not Draft: Anyone other than a QB
Same as the Rams, you don't make this move for a position that isn't a QB.
3. San Diego Chargers (4-12) -
Do Draft: Jalen Ramsey, FS, Florida State
Most say (myself included for a long time) Tunsil here but he doesn't fit the Chargers well plus they flat out don't like him. If the Chargers don't move down, taking Ramsey is the play which works out great because they need a replacement for Weddle and already have capable corners so they won't have to try and play Ramsey at corner.
Do Not Draft: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
Tunsil doesn't fit what the Chargers want to do on the OL and they already have a lot of money invested into the tackle positions. They need to draft a tackle but not here.
4. Dallas Cowboys (4-12) -
Do Draft: Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
Many have character concerns on Bosa but they're nothing compared to the concerns and suspensions and women beatings and.....yeah of the current and recent DEs for the Cowboys. Even without Lawrence's suspension the Boys still need another DE, they have a bunch of OK guys but no one who can be that dominate force which Bosa could be.
Do Not Draft: Ezekiel Elliot, RB, Ohio State
I saw this quote today “Jerry Jones wants the Cowboys to take Ezekiel Elliot” that's not a good sign for Zeke.
Seriously though, even if Zeke is a franchise RB (as I believe he is) who could carry your offense, the Cowboys got Morris, still have DMC and a few other guys, they have many other needs and don't need to take a RB here. If they hadn't got Morris then Zeke would be the Do Draft pick here but having him solidifies that backfield imo.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) -
Do Draft: Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
Myles Jack is my personal #1 overall player in this draft so getting him at #5 is a great pickup for the Jags. Plus he fills a huge need so it's a win win.
Do Not Draft: DeForest Buckner, DE/DT, Oregon
He doesn't fit well into what the Jags are doing and he's overrated to begin with.
6. Baltimore Ravens (5-11) -
Do Draft: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
Tunsil went from being the #1 overall pick to most likely falling to #6 in just a few days but the Ravens won't have any problem with this. They need a franchise tackle and Tunsil can be their guy. If he's available this is a no brainer.
Do Not Draft: Any cornerback
The Ravens are expected to draft a cornerback early in this draft but doing so here will be a reach. They can get a quality corner with their second round pick or if they really like someone can even trade back into the end of the first.
7. San Francisco 49ers (5-11) -
Do Draft: Talent
Frankly I don't care who the Niners take, just draft talent. They need talent. Just get the best fucking player you can. This will likely be DeForest Buckner and not just for the Chip/Oregon thing (I mean that too) but because he fits what they want to do and they still don't have a proper replacement for Justin Smith.
Do Not Draft: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
I'm actually a Lynch fanboy but the worst thing the Niners could do here is reach for a QB. They need to invest in a QB this draft but not until day 2 or 3.
8. Cleveland Browns via Philadelphia via Miami (5-11) -
Do Draft: Ezekiel Elliot, RB, Ohio State
The Browns have a bunch of dog shit at RB and Zeke is the kind of player you can build a franchise around, plus keeping him in the state will help morale for the fans. In the end though I believe the Browns will trade down yet again from this spot.
Do Not Draft: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
Again, I do like Lynch but the Browns moved down because they don't like any of the QB options in this draft and are going to give RGIII a shot which I believe is the correct move for them. Moving down just to take Lynch would be silly.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10) -
Do Draft: Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida
The Buccs could go with a DE or DT here but I think Hargreaves makes their team better. He's not my top corner in this draft but he is the consensus top corner. There are tons and tons of DL prospects that are super talented in this draft and the Buccs can address that later while Hargreaves will be a better value for them here.
Do Not Draft: Offense
Outside of maybe Tunsil I can't see any offensive piece that helps the Buccs here. Even Tunsil wouldn't be that great of a pick over the defensive prospects.
10. New York Giants (6-10) -
Do Draft: Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
I know they just took Flowers last year but he's more suited for the right side and Stanley can be your franchise LT. If not Stanley take Conklin, I've heard some teams rank Conklin higher than Stanley, I don't care personally, take whichever tackle you want and keep Eli upright.
Do Not Draft: Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida
They just invested in Jenkins and still have DRC so the starting spots are filled, they still need depth but most of the time you don't draft a depth guy in the first round.
11. Chicago Bears (6-10) -
Do Draft: Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
The Bears could draft a lot of guys here and be making a wise decision. Ronnie Stanley, Ezekiel Elliot, Vernon Hargreaves III, Jack Conklin, William Jackson III, and Jarran Reed would all be very very solid moves for the Bears but Stanley (or Conklin) will lock down that LT position, protect Cutler and help their running game.
Do Not Draft: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
There was a lot of rumblings about the Bears possibly taking a QB early in the off season but that's been put to rest now so I'd hope the Bears don't do that. Take someone later on to develop if they want but run with Cutler for now and get a better piece for the team than a QB here.
12. New Orleans Saints (7-9) -
Do Draft: Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
There's a number of guys the Saints could draft here that would be a good move but as far as who will likely be available and need, Lawson fits the bill. He'll fit in perfectly on the Saints defense and address a major need of theirs. Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville is another viable option here but there are a lot of very strong Dts in this class so that can be addressed on day 2.
Do Not Draft: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
The Saints showed interest in Treadwell for a bit of the draft process but I believe that interest has since faded. They do need to draft a receiver this year but not here, they have much more pressing needs to address in the first round.
13. Miami Dolphins via Philadelphia (7-9) -
Do Draft: Ezekiel Elliot, RB, Ohio State
If the Browns do not take Elliot at #8 then there is a legitimate chance he does fall to 13 for the Phins. The only other team that may draft him (barring any trades) is the Bears at 11. If Zeke does make it to the Phins pick then this will be a no brainer, they have to address the RB position at some point in this draft.
Do Not Draft: Derrick Henry, RB, Alabam
The worst thing the Phins could do is to panic and draft Henry this early. While they do need to sure up the RB position in this draft, reaching for Henry here is not a wise move. They need to draft top tier talent here, not second tier talent just because of the position need.
14. Oakland Raiders (7-9) -
Do Draft: Front 7
The Raiders did a lot of good things in free agency and if they continue to make smart decisions in the draft they could take the division from the Broncos. In round 1 they should focus on drafting another edge rusher to pair with Mack, someone to slot inside on the DL or 1 more LB to finish off their starting LB group. That's most likely where the true value will be for this position. If someone falls of course you always take the talent but assuming things go as they likely will, front 7 will be the best move for the Raiders.
Do Not Draft: Ezekiel Elliot, RB, Ohio State
While I believe Zeke on the Raiders would be a really good move I don't like it simply because the Raiders' don't really need it. Murray is a great RB and they do need to find someone to compliment him but taking Elliot means that Murray isn't your guy which could discourage him and cause him to regress which lands them in the same boat next year.
15. Tennessee Titans via Los Angeles (7-9) -
Do Draft: The Best Player Available
The Titans have already won the 2016 draft so as long as they don't reach for some shitty player they're likely going to get an A+. There will be a lot of talent available for them here at 15 so I can't really pick 1 that they should draft but I have one that they shouldn't.
Do Not Draft: Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
The Titans never hid their interest in Tunsil before changing that to Ramsey to create the trade market for that #1 pick. That interest in Ramsey at #1 seemed like smoke but Tunsil was legitimate. They have now said, after moving down, that they are targeting Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State which would be a good move to put Conklin in at RT, leave Lewan at LT and move Poutasi inside to guard. If Conklin, Stanley and Tunsil are all gone, the Titans must not reach for Decker. Personally I believe Spriggs is the #3 OT after Tunsil and Stanley but Conklin is a close 4. Then there's a rather large drop off to Decker as the #5 OT so if they reach for Decker they'll be making a big mistake.
16. Detroit Lions (7-9) -
Do Draft: Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
I had a difficult time picking between Conklin and Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama but there is so much DL depth in this draft it made the decision clear. If Conklin is available the Lions would be wise to solidify their offensive line and focus on the DL in round 2.
Do Not Draft: Any wide receiver
The worst thing the Lions could possibly do is panic after Calvin's retirement and draft a mediocre wide receiver in the first round. No receiver is worthy of a first round selection this year (including my personal #1 Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh) and the Lions would be hurting themselves if they selected one here. Go with DL if there is no OL available but do not go WR.
17. Atlanta Falcons (8-8) -
Do Draft: Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State
Lee is versatile, fast, strong, can cover, can rush the passer when needed and can help in run defense. He'll be a great piece for the Falcon's defense.
Do Not Draft: Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
Ragland is being overrated by most (myself included). He's slower than you'd like and more of an old school LB you'd have seen years ago. A thumper who you will remember hit you haha. He's a liability in coverage but still talented so I won't blame a team for taking him in round 1 if Jack and Lee are gone.
18. Indianapolis Colts (8-8) -
Do Draft: A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama
Robinson would be a great value for the Colts here. Having no offensive lineman available worth taking at this spot in the first round the Colts will likely look towards defense and Robinson will likely be the best combination of talent and need for the Colts.
Do Not Draft: Kamalei Correa, OLB, Boise State
Rumors say the Colts are interested in Correa in round 1 if the top 3-4 prospects on their list are gone. This would be a massive reach for a player who might not be able to be an effective pass rusher in the NFL.
19. Buffalo Bills (8-8) -
Do Draft: Offensive Line
The Bills could go in a number of directions here but if there's a viable offensive line option available it would be in their best interest to improve the OL. They need better protection for Tyrod and whoever they have in the backfield (Willaims, Shady, etc). Lucky for them they don't need a LT so they have the luxury of being able to take a guy like Taylor Decker would wouldn't be a good fit for a lot of teams.
Do Not Draft: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
I keep having Lynch as a do not draft. Not because he's a bad prospect but just because he's a bad fit for a lot of these teams. The Bills are reportedly interested in a QB early in the draft and some think that Lynch could be that QB in the first round here but that'd be a huge mistake. Tyrod played pretty damn well overall for the Bills and if they continue to build the team around him they could have something great. If they don't believe in Tyrod the way I do then they need to establish dominance at other areas of their team (OL) and draft a QB later to develop or next year where there is a lot more talent.
20. New York Jets (10-6) -
Do Draft: Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama
Ragland will fit into what Todd Bowels is doing well. Fill up the inside of that defense with a big thumper of a LB who can stop the run well. Ragland will need to prove he has the speed to play in the NFL though to really do what Bowels would like him to but Bowels has proven in the past to get the most out of his players on defense.
Do Not Draft: Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech
I had a difficult time picking a don't draft for the Jets but I think Butler fits the bill. The Jets need quite a few things but Butler would be a poor selection. Unless someone falls, at this point taking most DL pieces is a bad decision but this draft is super deep at DL but it's more tiered. There's the group of guys who are in that elite category for the top 15 or so picks and then there's a bunch of guys who are second rounders so you'll see some second round DL talent still available in the fourth. That said, with the Jets needing a bunch of other stuff, outside of someone falling, DL isn't the way to go.
21. Washington Redskins (9-7) -
Do Draft: Keanu Neal, S, Florida
If Darron Lee or Reggie Ragland are available then the Redskins better go with one of them because they are in desperate need of an ILB but if both are gone, rather than reaching for someone they should address another area of concern at safety. Neal is a very talented player and will likely be available here but not long after this.
Do Not Draft: Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State
The Skins are reportedly in love with Thomas and even if they covet him they better not draft him here. In all likelihood he will be available in the second round for them. He was once the top rated receiver and now he's not even top 5 so passing on him here would be wise.
22. Houston Texans (9-7) -
Do Draft: William Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
The Texans addressed their most pressing concerns via free agency so they almost have a luxury pick here in the first. Fuller will be a great compliment receiver to DeAndre Hopkins and will give Brock all of the tools possible to succeed.
Do Not Draft: Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
If Fuller is gone the Texans supposedly have interest in Coleman as their backup plan. I'd rather see them take Treadwell or Doctson.
23. Minnesota Vikings (11-5) -
Do Draft: Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
This one is pretty simple for the do and don't. Doctson and Diggs will make for a very solid 1-2. If Doctson is gone I'd like to see the Vikings either pull the trigger on Karl Joseph or Keanu Neal to pair up with Harrison Smith or Jarran Reed to throw some young blood into that DT mix.
Do Not Draft: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
Doctson fits with Diggs better than Treadwell imo but the Vikings have done so fucking well the past few years in the draft and FA that whoever they go with I'm going to just assume is the right move for them.
24. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) -
Do Draft: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
Finally a team that Treadwell will thrive on. AJ and Treadwell will be like a new age Fitz and Q combo. It's been pretty well confirmed that Dalton can't really make his teammates better so the Bengals must surround him with talent. The temptation to draft DL will be there for the Bengals but there's so much talent at DL in this draft, short of someone falling, the Bengals can wait to address the position.
Do Not Draft: Noah Spence, DE/OLB, Eastern Kentucky
The Bengals have never been ones to shy away from character concern guys. It worked out well with Burfict for awhile but cost them big last year (not all his fault I understand). They need help at DE and many say Spence is the top pure pass rusher in this class but there are so many red flags with this kid that he's just not worth the risk in the first.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) -
Do Draft: Secondary
Doesn't really matter who, so long as the value fits. Neal, Jackson, Fuller, Apple, Joseph, Howard, Alexander, Bell, Cravens, any of those guys are worthy of a late first rounder and the Steelers have to address that. Like everything else, if someone falls then shying from the secondary will be OK but they have to address the secondary eventually.
Do Not Draft: Kamalei Correa, OLB, Boise State
Rumors say the
Colts Steelers are interested in Correa in round 1. This would be a massive reach for a player who might not be able to be an effective pass rusher in the NFL.
26. Seattle Seahawks (10-6) -
Do Draft: Germain Ifedi, OT/G, Texas A&M
The Seahawks have to fix the offensive line. They've made a few meh signings but lost Okung. They really like Ifedi, he's versatile and should be available here and fits their system so it's a perfect fit.
Do Not Draft: Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama
I'm not sure why the Seahawks are so interested in Henry when Rawls looked great. They definitely should draft a RB this year to pair with Rawls but not in the first round and not Henry.
27. Green Bay Packers (10-6) -
Do Draft: Beniquez Brown, ILB, Mississippi State
This may be a bit of a shocker but it makes a lot of sense. The Packers need a LB, Brown is well worth a first round pick but is flying very far under the radar and the Packers have already said they like Brown. I highly doubt he lasts until their second round pick and he can come in and start week 1. They could go with one of many NT that will be available here but there will be more of them available in later rounds than quality ILBs.
Do Not Draft: Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame
This won't happen, no one will draft Smith prior to round 4 (maybe late 3 but I doubt it) but I'm seeing some still saying the Packers should lock him up in the first. That's just a waste of a pick. Smith is an amazing talent but his unfortunate knee injury will keep him out all of 2016 and maybe even into 2017. Right now he's a long term investment that won't pay off for at least a year, maybe more and you can't spend a first rounder on that when you're a contender who needs a piece or two.
28. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) -
Do Draft: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
Alex Smith won't get the job done. Lynch might fall this far and Andy Reid loves him, you can't really argue this pick. I think the Chiefs will have to trade up if they actually want Lynch but if he's here, take him.
Do Not Draft: Offensive Line
In all likelihood there will not be any OL prospect here worth taking so don't reach to build the trenches like Reid does. Take a chance like they did last year and maybe grab another corner since they lost Smith or a receiver they like or a fucking QB.
29. Arizona Cardinals (13-3) -
Do Draft: Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama
Center is the weakest position on the Cardinals roster at the moment (small argument can be made for CB2) so draft the best one in this draft and build for the future.
Do Not Draft: Robert Nkemdiche, DE/DT, Ole Miss
I will be pretty upset if we draft this over-hyped, mental case fuck up who takes plays off and doesn't give a shit about playing football. Inb4wedraftnkemdicheconfirmed.
30. Carolina Panthers (15-1) -
Do Draft: Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana
Spriggs is ranked anywhere from the #2 OT to the #5 OT, he's the #3 imo and will likely be taken as the #5 OT which is fine by the Panthers who desperately need help at the position.
Do Not Draft: Cornerback
Do not overreact to losing Norman. If there is a good corner here worthy of the pick then fine, grab him but most likely there won't be another first round worthy CB left so take the smart pick and fill out the corner need later on.
31. Denver Broncos (12-4) -
Do Draft: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
I still say that the Niners take a QB on day 2 and then trade Kaep to the Broncos. I think this deal is already done and in place and now both teams are just waiting to see if the Niners do in fact land the QB they want on day 2. But I might be wrong and if Lynch somehow falls this far the Broncos should jump at the opportunity to snatch him up.
Do Not Draft: Any other QB
Reports still say the Broncos like Prescott and Cook. There are only 3 Qbs to consider in the first round and neither Prescott or Cook are part of those 3. The Broncos will be much better off running with Sanchez and using this pick to bolster the OL or replace some defense.
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60. New England Patriots (12-4) -
Do Draft: Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State
I understand the Patriots aren't in dire need of a receiver and signed Hogan and yada yada but Miller is a special talent who could bring an entirely new element to the Patriots that they haven't had in a long time now.
Do Not Draft: A running back
Not just at this pick but at any pick. I don't understand why so any reports are coming out saying that the Pats want to add another RB to their roster in this draft. Between Lewis, White and Blount they have everything they need. Add in the Donald Brown signing and if they draft another back then someone is left out. Assuming Lewis comes back healthy he's like the perfect back for the Pats so I just don't get it.