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#51
Jun 19 2021 04:40pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 19 2021 05:37pm)
As the saying goes: "the devil is in the details" - it's not hard to find majority support for a vague, good-sounding policy in a poll. Finding majority support for a concrete bill which spells out all the costs and downsides, the winners and also the losers, is an entirely different story.


This would be true if we didn't have examples of support still being high when we do exactly that.

Obamacare polls insanely well literally everywhere as long as you call it The Affordable Care Act. Spell out the individual provisions and it still polls incredibly high even in rural Kentucky where Mitch McConnell polls the highest.

Florida passed a $15 state minimum wage while voting against Biden.

Every candidate last election cycle that supported medicare for all won their seats, including in Republican leaning districts.

Conservatives in America live and breathe on voter ignorance and especially when you don't include details. When you include details these things typically get even more support because "Give everybody health insurance and pay for it with a % tax on the highest earners" polls insanely well.

This post was edited by NetflixAdaptationWidow on Jun 19 2021 04:41pm
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#52
Jun 19 2021 04:54pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 20 Jun 2021 00:40)
This would be true if we didn't have examples of support still being high when we do exactly that.

Obamacare polls insanely well literally everywhere as long as you call it The Affordable Care Act. Spell out the individual provisions and it still polls incredibly high even in rural Kentucky where Mitch McConnell polls the highest.


That's just not true. More detailed polls show that the parts of the ACA which give people free stuff poll well, while the individual mandate - which in theory finances all the free stuff - is way underwater.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/obamacares-unpopularity-suggests-medicare-for-all-may-be-a-hard-sell/

The same article also highlights how the ACA had a negative net-favorability rating until late 2016, i.e. until the election of Trump. Its increased polling since then is respondents signalling "do not strip us of our current healthcare" (and probably also the obligatory anti-trump virtue signalling) more so than genuine excitement about the ACA.

Quote
Florida passed a $15 state minimum wage while voting against Biden.

Fair point, but not exactly supporting your argument that it's particularly the conservatives who rely on populism and the ignorance of their voters. Leftists like to do the same, and a $15 minimum wage in low tax, low income, lots of service jobs Florida is a prime example of that.

Quote
Every candidate last election cycle that supported medicare for all won their seats, including in Republican leaning districts.

How many medicare for all supporting Dem candidates were there actually who ran in R-leaning districts?


Quote
Conservatives in America live and breathe on voter ignorance and especially when you don't include details. When you include details these things typically get even more support because "Give everybody health insurance and pay for it with a % tax on the highest earners" polls insanely well.

Duh. ANY question of the type "give everybody free X and pay for it with higher taxes on the super rich" polls insanely well.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 19 2021 04:57pm
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#53
Jun 19 2021 04:58pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 19 2021 05:54pm)
That's just not true. More detailed polls show that the parts of the ACA which give people free stuff poll well, while the individual mandate - which in theory finances all the free stuff - is way underwater.
https://i.imgur.com/eF5G8qA.jpg
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/obamacares-unpopularity-suggests-medicare-for-all-may-be-a-hard-sell/
The same article also highlights how the ACA had a negative net-favorability rating until late 2016, i.e. until the election of Trump. It's increased polling since then is respondents signalling "do not strip us of our current healthcare" (and probably also the obligatory anti-trump virtue signalling) more so than genuine excitement about the ACA.
Fair point, but not exactly supporting your argument that it's particularly the conservatives who rely on populism and the ignorance of their voters. Leftists like to do the same, and a $15 minimum wage in low tax, low income, lots of service jobs Florida is a prime example of that.
How many medicare for all supporting Dem candidates were there actually who ran in R-leaning districts?
Duh. ANY question of the type "give everybody free X and pay for it with higher taxes on the super rich" polls insanely well.


Now poll the package as a whole and see where it stands. Even in Kentucky it remains more favorable than unfavorable when you poll the whole bill.

You are trying to split part of the bill and say "Oh this part polls bad". Yeah no shit if you take all the good parts out of something and poll the cost it polls poorly. You don't get to separate everything out to cherry pick a negative result. You literally just did what you are trying to accuse me of.

Yeah, when you tell people that the rich are going to pay their fair share it polls well. Biden doesn't support that kind of thing, and so he's further right. Biden doesn't even want to go back to Obama era taxes. Economically, he's further right than Obama was. He's barely further left than Trump, and those are the policies people actually vote on, which is why he didn't excite anybody.

This post was edited by NetflixAdaptationWidow on Jun 19 2021 04:59pm
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#54
Jun 19 2021 05:04pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 20 Jun 2021 00:58)
Now poll the package as a whole and see where it stands. Even in Kentucky it remains more favorable than unfavorable when you poll the whole bill.

You are trying to split part of the bill and say "Oh this part polls bad". Yeah no shit if you take all the good parts out of something and poll the cost it polls poorly. You don't get to separate everything out to cherry pick a negative result.


The first result I got from a quick search:


42% favorable with 31% unfavorable and 27% dont know is not exactly a public endorsement of a bill. Yes, it's technically more favorable than unfavorable, but your previous description that
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow)
Obamacare polls insanely well literally everywhere

was clearly hyperbole.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 19 2021 05:05pm
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#55
Jun 19 2021 05:06pm
About as expected.

The only thing affecting me is living in a blue state that completely fucked themselves responding to Covid and created a lot more political division.

I will say it's funny seeing all the liberals who claimed Joe would unite the nation quiet AF.
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#56
Jun 19 2021 05:09pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 19 2021 06:04pm)
The first result I got from a quick search:
https://i.imgur.com/YGtLJHF.jpg

42% favorable with 31% unfavorable and 27% dont know is not exactly a public endorsement of a bill. Yes, it's technically more favorable than unfavorable, but your previous description that

was clearly hyperbole.


Bruh, that's Kentucky. It rivals Alabama with its irrational hatred of Democrats. I'd say a Democrat attempt at national healthcare having a 42/31 split on approval is insanely good polling.
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#57
Jun 19 2021 05:19pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 20 Jun 2021 01:09)
Bruh, that's Kentucky. It rivals Alabama with its irrational hatred of Democrats. I'd say a Democrat attempt at national healthcare having a 42/31 split on approval is insanely good polling.


Kentucky is an ancestrally blue state though with traditionally strong union influence. It has a Democratic governor and was won by Clinton twice while Alabama flipped to red almost 2 decades earlier.
Maybe I'm wrong, but classical social democratic policies should fall on much more fertile ground there than in arch-conservative Alabama.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 19 2021 05:19pm
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#58
Jun 21 2021 10:14am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 18 2021 07:21am)
Btw: if 2024 is indeed a Biden/Trump rematch, then Trump and the GOP will lose in a 2008-style semi-landslide.


Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and New Hampshire all have republican state legislatures. That's a warning sign to democrats that these states will turn red PERMANENTLY and soon. That's a known political trend. Before a state flips to a different party at the national level, it flips that way at the state level. Trump just flipped most of those states red SUPER EARLY in 2016. But by 2024, its not so far fetched to see them permanently in the GOP camp.

An example in the other direction is Colorado. Colorado used to be reliably republican. But then its state legislature turned all democrat. Then it started voting democrat at the federal level.

Looking at state legislatures, the democrats are screwed. The map is going deep red when the federal level elections catch up to what is happening at the state level with all the new red state legislatures out there.

This post was edited by Kuggergug on Jun 21 2021 10:17am
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#59
Jun 21 2021 10:16am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 19 2021 04:19pm)
Kentucky is an ancestrally blue state though with traditionally strong union influence. It has a Democratic governor and was won by Clinton twice while Alabama flipped to red almost 2 decades earlier.
Maybe I'm wrong, but classical social democratic policies should fall on much more fertile ground there than in arch-conservative Alabama.



Kentucky's state legislature is deep red by a landslide. There is no chance of that state going blue. Just stop. Get educated before talking politics.
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#60
Jun 21 2021 10:20am
Quote (fuzzy159 @ Jun 19 2021 04:06pm)
About as expected.

The only thing affecting me is living in a blue state that completely fucked themselves responding to Covid and created a lot more political division.

I will say it's funny seeing all the liberals who claimed Joe would unite the nation quiet AF.


That was a dumb assumption to make from the start. We knew there would never be any uniting with terrorists, or working with them.
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