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Oct 23 2019 06:24am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 23 2019 07:43am)
I gotta disagree that all these other, vanilla candidates would have won the general against Clinton - Trump was the only GOP candidate who tapped hard into anti free trade and anti (illegal) immigration sentiments, and without those, he wouldnt have won the crucial rust belt states.

It's very well possible that a candidate Marco Rubio or Huntsman would have gotten a higher share of the popular vote than Trump, particularly based on better margins in California and Texas - but probably while losing the electoral college!

Jeb Bush would have been crushed because he's a total loser and pushover, Ted Cruz would have lost handily because he's the most unlikable human being on the planet.


Just about any GOP candidate would have won due to the tide coming in from Obama. When a guy gets two terms the other party gets it next no matter how good of a job is done. This is maxim.
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Oct 23 2019 07:07am
Quote (Skinned @ 23 Oct 2019 08:24)
Just about any GOP candidate would have won due to the tide coming in from Obama. When a guy gets two terms the other party gets it next no matter how good of a job is done. This is maxim.


Quote (Skinned @ Nov 7 2016 07:07am)
Excited about tomorrow. First woman president elected. Pretty amazing.


oh okay lmao
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Oct 23 2019 09:02am
Quote (Skinned @ 23 Oct 2019 14:24)
Just about any GOP candidate would have won due to the tide coming in from Obama. When a guy gets two terms the other party gets it next no matter how good of a job is done. This is maxim.


Nah. GHWBush got elected directly after Reagan, and Gore would have been elected directly after Bill Clinton if he hadnt completely blewn it AND gotten very unlucky all at once.
Hillary's campaign was not great, but it wasnt horrible either. Certainly far better than the campaign Gore ran in 2000.

Hillary didnt lose because she made blatant mistakes or was a blatantly unsuitable candidate. She lost because she didnt see and cover her subtle strategical weaknesses - weaknesses that Trump was uniquely positioned to exploit.

Any other realistic GOP candidate would have done better in sun belt suburbs and worse in the rust belt, yielding a better popular vote share and a worse result in the electoral college.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 23 2019 09:02am
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Oct 23 2019 09:04am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 23 2019 10:02am)
Nah. GHWBush got elected directly after Reagan, and Gore would have been elected directly after Bill Clinton if he hadnt completely blewn it AND gotten very unlucky all at once.
Hillary's campaign was not great, but it wasnt horrible either. Certainly far better than the campaign Gore ran in 2000.

Hillary didnt lose because she made blatant mistakes or was a blatantly unsuitable candidate. She lost because she didnt see and cover her subtle strategical weaknesses - weaknesses that Trump was uniquely positioned to exploit.

Any other realistic GOP candidate would have done better in sun belt suburbs and worse in the rust belt, yielding a better popular vote share and a worse result in the electoral college.


just curious, what benchmarks are you using to compare Gore2000 and HRC2016?

i honestly hadn't thought about the two in comparison with each other before.
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Oct 23 2019 09:11am
Quote (thesnipa @ 23 Oct 2019 17:04)
just curious, what benchmarks are you using to compare Gore2000 and HRC2016?

i honestly hadn't thought about the two in comparison with each other before.




Gore was made to look like a total fool, a wannabe tough guy. And during the debates, he came across as very smug and condescending, often times trying to show off his superior knowledge in an in-your-face way. He came across as a jerk and a smartass who's full of himself. His campaign also was much less well-organized than hers.

When Hillary was debating Trump, she was clearly drawing on the lessons of these Bush vs Gore debates: "even if you are much smarter than the other guy, it just wont work to try to stress this point, to try to hammer home how dumb the other guy is - this will just make you look bad." She instead focused on the qualified vs unqualified angle, and only jumped on Trump's lack of knowledge when he gave her something tangible to work with.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 23 2019 09:12am
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Oct 23 2019 09:39am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 23 2019 10:11am)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAUcyfKESts

Gore was made to look like a total fool, a wannabe tough guy. And during the debates, he came across as very smug and condescending, often times trying to show off his superior knowledge in an in-your-face way. He came across as a jerk and a smartass who's full of himself. His campaign also was much less well-organized than hers.

When Hillary was debating Trump, she was clearly drawing on the lessons of these Bush vs Gore debates: "even if you are much smarter than the other guy, it just wont work to try to stress this point, to try to hammer home how dumb the other guy is - this will just make you look bad." She instead focused on the qualified vs unqualified angle, and only jumped on Trump's lack of knowledge when he gave her something tangible to work with.


some good points for sure, but Gore still only lost based on Florida. whereas Clinton lost by like 3-5 states. both of them felt like an "its their time" situation, and both propped up by Bill Clinton. lots of parallels for sure.
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Oct 23 2019 09:52am
Quote (thesnipa @ 23 Oct 2019 17:39)
some good points for sure, but Gore still only lost based on Florida. whereas Clinton lost by like 3-5 states. both of them felt like an "its their time" situation, and both propped up by Bill Clinton. lots of parallels for sure.


Gore would just have needed to win New Hampshire or his home state of Tennessee to win the election, even without Florida.

Also note the fundamentals: the Cinton years saw an unprecedented economic boom and very little foreign conflict - Gore ran as a continuation of those times.
The Obama years, on the other hand, saw a huge recession followed by years of sluggish recovery; and the wars in Iraq and Syria going nowhere, coupled with the rise of ISIS and high-profile terrorist attacks all across the Western world. Hillary ran as a continuation of all of that.

Therefore, a plausible case can be made for her campaign to have been better than Gore's despite ending with a worse electoral result.
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Oct 23 2019 10:59am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 23 Oct 2019 10:21)
the PKK is considered a terrorist organization in America and all of Europe, and for good reason - because they ARE a terrorist organization.

overall, the kurds are the victims of the developments of the last century, they are the ones being oppressed and the terrorism they suffered far exceeds the one committed by the PKK. all well and good, but none of this changes the fact that the PKK did carry out terror attacks and atrocities of its own, doesnt change the fact that the PKK, and the Kurds at large, are not the completely innocent, peaceul lambs as whom they portray themselves.

I am sympathetic to the Kurdish cause, but this statement you posted is nonetheless pure propaganda crap and should rather be taken with a mine than a grain of salt.


what an utterly simplistic take. you are considered a simpleton - simply because you ARE a simpleton. how's that for an 'argument'?

yeah right, let's just ignore the massive political and economic effort behind the classification, let's ignore that the UN does NOT consider them a terrorist organisation, let's ignore the fact that they were formed AFTER turkey undertook several efforts to violently oppress the kurds, leading to massive casualties and injustices, let's just ignore the fact that all their 'terrorism' is aimed at achieving basic human and political rights for millions of people, and that they do not commit random acts for the sole purpose of spreading fear...

it's like they say: one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter.

you claim to sympathise with the kurdish cause, but happily lump the pkk together with groups like isis or al-quaeda and perpetuate simplistic justifications like 'they are not peaceful innocent lambs' - so much for 'propaganda crap'. nuance exists, you know?
if your peaceful attempts at political freedom and basic rights had resulted in your people being slaughtered, disenfranchised, and driven off their land for decades, it'd be understandable if you resorted to other means to make your oppressors and the world listen...

let me ask you something, would you have called the french resistance in WWII 'terrorists' too? because technically...
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Oct 23 2019 11:29am
Quote (fender @ 23 Oct 2019 12:59)
let me ask you something, would you have called the french resistance in WWII 'terrorists' too? because technically...


Resistance against what was it oh right the desires of bloody conquest by your reich ancestors. who only started two out of two world wars within 25 years (lost them both in a landslide too)

This post was edited by excellence on Oct 23 2019 11:29am
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Oct 23 2019 11:44am
Quote (fender @ 23 Oct 2019 18:59)
what an utterly simplistic take. you are considered a simpleton - simply because you ARE a simpleton. how's that for an 'argument'?

yeah right, let's just ignore the massive political and economic effort behind the classification, let's ignore that the UN does NOT consider them a terrorist organisation, let's ignore the fact that they were formed AFTER turkey undertook several efforts to violently oppress the kurds, leading to massive casualties and injustices, let's just ignore the fact that all their 'terrorism' is aimed at achieving basic human and political rights for millions of people, and that they do not commit random acts for the sole purpose of spreading fear...

it's like they say: one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter.

you claim to sympathise with the kurdish cause, but happily lump the pkk together with groups like isis or al-quaeda and perpetuate simplistic justifications like 'they are not peaceful innocent lambs' - so much for 'propaganda crap'. nuance exists, you know?
if your peaceful attempts at political freedom and basic rights had resulted in your people being slaughtered, disenfranchised, and driven off their land for decades, it'd be understandable if you resorted to other means to make your oppressors and the world listen...


I used this simplistic non-argument because I didnt want to to go into too much detail. The tldr is that the PKK has committed various bombings against the Turkish state, has engaged in political killings and followed a militant doctrine for the longest time. (Not sure about their current stance on the use of violence for political purpose.)


Quote
you claim to sympathise with the kurdish cause, but happily lump the pkk together with groups like isis or al-quaeda


I never did that. Of course "terrorist organization" is a wide category, and differentiation within this category is possible and recommendable. I consider the PKK one of the less "evil" terrorist organizations, certainly well below ISIS or Al-Quaeda. Their goals, methods and ideology still clearly fit the definition of a terrorist organization.

Quote
let me ask you something, would you have called the french resistance in WWII 'terrorists' too? because technically...


No, since their guerrilla warfare was targetting invasors from a homicidal, fascist dictatorship which was waging wars of aggression. The Kurdish territory within Turkey, on the other hand, has never been autonomous, so the Turkish state representatives in there are definitely not invasors. Turkey is far from a perfect democracy, but not really a fascist dictatorship either. And while Turkey has committed genocides before (e.g. against the Armenians), their genocidal tendencies are far lower than those of Nazi Germany.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 23 2019 11:45am
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