Independents are leftists who have no party to vote for so they vote Democrat because they're the furthest left party available, or fake libertarians who want credit for not calling themselves Republican.

Biden's approval has been remarkably steady:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
This makes sense because the electorate is hyper-polarized so you're looking at disapproval ratings between 40-45% no matter what.
Compare with Obama: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-obamas-rising-approval-ratings-compare-with-recent-presidents/
Compare with Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

It seems to me that Biden is about as popular as it gets given the environment that we're in. Like I said, I think you need to look for CHANGES in the approval/disapproval as opposed to the absolute amount. Biden will be in trouble if he sees a dip in support but there's no evidence of that at this time.

His approval has seen some very slight erosion over time, and in recent weeks, his disapproval has picked up. No big movement yet, but if the current trendlines - as flat as they might seem - hold steady for another 15 months, the midterms would be a disaster for Democrats.

It should also be noted that his polling average contains a lot of polls with D+10 samples and stuff like that. So as in 2020 and 2016, the current polls probably overstate his standing somewhat. (Not dramatically, but by 2-3 percentage points.)

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 28 2021 07:02pm

Nice dress..

I'm more concerned about Biden's demented facial expression. Might just be a bad pic, but he looks like an advanced-stage Alzheimer's patient in this one.

I'm trying to root for him, since we need to win against our enemies.

But yes, his mortal frame is showing wear and tear..

You won't win against your enemies if you root for a proponent of CRT, LGBTQ+ and female empowerment. Don't you find it fatiguing to lie this much to make yourself look tactful?

what you dont want to do is count the crowd size he draws. better of sticking with hocus pocus polls

The expectation should be that the House will be a disaster for the Dems because of redistricting. Only a handful of blue states DON'T have independent redistricting commissions and they don't really have many districts when you combine them all. Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania now use independent commissions so it's possible that things will be a bit more fair.

The Senate is difficult to predict because it really depends on who is up for reelection. I'd say that Democrats have an advantage there because so many Republicans in purple/pink states are retiring. It's not a terribly big advantage though. Ultimately, Biden isn't going to be the one who makes or breaks Dem success during the midterms. Much of it is preordained.



Crowd size is meaningless. You only get 1 vote no matter how excited you are.

This post was edited by thundercock on Jun 28 2021 11:18pm

I dont think the bolded part is true. Biden is the leader and public face of this administration, his raw and net approval ratings capture how satisfied/dissatisfied Americans are with their Democratic government - and that will set the tone for the midterms. Trump's skyhigh disapproval and middling approval ratings definitely set the tone for the 2018 midterms, didn't they? I see no convincing arugment why the same shouldnt be the case for Biden and the 2022 midterms.

Sure, based on redistricting, we would assume a House result of R+10seats in a repeat of the environment from 2020, but Biden's popularity can make the difference between Republicans barely capturing a majority and them getting to 240+ seats. In the Senate, with lots of close races being expected, he can make the difference between losing the chamber or gaining enough seats so that Manchin (and Sinema) can no longer block his agenda.

According to 538, the generic congressional ballot and the president's approval ratings are the two biggest predictors of how a midterm election will go.