Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 12 2020 12:10pm)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/Fivethirtyeight showing Trump with a 29% probability of winning reelection. Exactly the same number their model gave him on election day in 2016. Feels like a déjà vu.
It should be noted, however, that a lot of Trump's win probability comes from the tremendous amount of uncertainty (of various sorts) that is still accounted for in the model. The more Biden can run out the clock, the more his odds will automatically improve.
Polls can be accurate in current state and not be relevant to the election date.
We're still ~3 months out. A lot can happen. All that matters is the polling the day of, and polling the week of the election last time had Trump within margin of error.
However, this time Trump isn't going to get the last day push from Comey, and he can't play himself off as an outsider fighting the scary politician. People tend to want those "career politicians" when shit hits the fan. So this time the predictions against Trump are more likely to be valid all the way to the end.
This post was edited by Thor123422 on Aug 12 2020 11:16am