Agreed. I still think that the polls will tighten the closer we get to election day. Particularly as reluctant Republican-leaning voters will eventually come home. At least to me, the Democratic base seems more solidified atm than the Repubican base.

The elephant in the room is of course the pandemic. If cases surge for a third time, Trump is toast no matter what.

To expand on my last two posts from today, Nate Silver from 538 made pretty much the same points in the following article (which I just read a minute ago, I swear to god):
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-way-too-soon-to-count-trump-out/

Some key points:

- Most of Trump's 29% win chance come form the uncertainty still in the model, like I said. If the election was held today, the model would give Biden a 93% chance vs Trump's 7%.
- This uncertainty has a lot to do with the pandemic and the wild ride of the economy. And it cuts both ways, the high uncertainty means that there is also a fairly large chance for a proper Biden landslide.
- Trump still has an edge in the Electoral college according to current polls and their model, but it has narrowed down to around 1.8%, lower than the 2.9% edge he had in 2016.

In my mind it's inevitable that Trump and/or Barr pull some desperate shenanigans in the next few months. If Trump can steal this election somehow, he will.

Steal? 😆 funniest thing I've seen all day. Biden has zero chance of winning.

this

This post was edited by Warlock316 on Aug 14 2020 08:46pm

according to that user 'russia' went and "hacked the election" while Biden was in the executive branch as VP.

You have to be really ignorant to reality to think that the candidate who has been consistently ahead by 6-8% in polling averages throughout the entire race would have "no chance of winning" against an incumbent with historically high disapproval ratings who's presiding over both the worst public health crisis and economic crisis in a century.

Given the environment and the huge mistakes Trump made along the way, it's rather surprising that his position isnt even worse; that he still has something like a 29% chance of winning according to the models.

Dumbest thing I've read all day. Same polling had Hillary beating him by much larger percentages. Biden is a far worse canidate than Hillary and yes he has zero chance of winning.

This post was edited by Landmine on Aug 15 2020 06:59am

The Democrats have put cheating into overdrive by shutting down rallies and mail in voting. I have him at 50/50

huh?