The Nevada Caucus is today and polls should close in about 2 hours. The process is very similar to Iowa but hopefully without the massive incompetence. There are 23 delegates from the 4 congressional districts and 13 state-wide delegates up for grabs (8 at-large and 5 PLEOs). The results today are estimates and we won't get an "official" count until the state convention on May 30th. The county convention will be held on April 18.
https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/NV-D

One thing to note is that Nevada is notoriously difficult to poll. Currently, the front-runner by delegate count is Mayor Pete but that should end today. This will likely be a big day for Bernie Sanders as he has invested HEAVILY into getting Latinos to come out and vote for him. Bernie should get about 35% of the SDEs and if he gets below 30%, that would be a pretty big disappointment for him. On the other hand, it's possible for him to break 50% which would be a big win and he'd be the undisputed front runner. As for Biden, he needs a strong second here so that he can dominate South Carolina next week. If he gets another 3rd or 4th place finish, that would certainly hurt him.

Current ESTIMATED delegate count:
1. Buttigieg - 23
2. Sanders - 21
3. Warren - 8
4. Klobuchar - 7
5. Biden - 6

New Hampshire Thread: https://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=82653483&f=119
Iowa Caucus Thread: https://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=82619910&f=119

Tcock should probably create a consolidated thread for the race instead of doing state by state.

But on topic I don’t really understand Buttigiegs appeal tbh.

It’s such a weak pool. If I was center left Warren would be my choice.

Sanders will win this decisively.

Andrew Yang just summed up the entire primary race on CNN: Bernie is doing well, but he's still only getting 20-30% of the vote in those states that he's winning because the rest of the field is just so goddamn fractured.

Yang said that after tonight, it will be clear that things cant keep going like this, that there will have to be very tough talks between the other candidates to consolidate the field, and that the big question then will be about the share of the vote Bernie can get against 1 or 2 consolidated opponents.

I think everyone is trying to hang on until Super Tuesday. If nothing happens before then, we'll definitely see a shakeup after then. Klobuchar is definitely trying to coattail at least one more state with MN that day (either win outright, or get enough solid showings in a few others) to be able to justify keeping her campaign going to donors.

God it's just like the Republican process last time lol

That's how Trump stayed out in front the whole time

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Feb 22 2020 04:45pm

It's starting to look like the number for precinct chairs to call in results somehow got leaked, as the lines are jammed, and calls from precincts aren't getting through.

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1231336362382508037

What a shit show and you only have Bernie to thank for that one. I imagine that caucuses, as much as I like them since they are closest to ranked choice voting, will be eliminated for the 2024 primary.

Did you forget Bloomberg, or did you just think he'll get 0?

There are two important differences: first, Trump was getting ~35%, while Bernie is polling at around ~25% nationally. For a factional candidate running against a fractured field, this makes a huge difference. And second, the GOP is using winner-takes-(almost)-all allocation in much more primaries than the Democratic party, which is using a very proportional allocation (among candidates above the viability threshold of 15%).

Due to the winner-takes-all nature of the early contests in 2016, Trump was able to very quickly run away with the delegate number. By the time the party establishment had realized that Trump was for real and that their preferred candidate JEB! was a complete and utter failure, it was basically already too late to rally around a single Trump-alternative. And then, the GOP establishment had to weigh the damage to the party inflicted by a Trump candidacy against the damage inflicted by stopping the front-runner who's got a majority of the delegates and the most passionate following at a highly contested and swampy convention.

Due to the more proportional allocation, the DNC in 2020 has much more time before Bernie approaches a delegate majority. If Bernie heads to the Democratic convention with say 35% of the delegates, they can still stop him.