The New Hampshire primary is February 11th and there are 24 delegates up for grabs. The two congressional districts have 8 delegates each and there are 8 statewide delegates (3 PLEOs and 5 based on statewide vote). Keep in mind that this is an ESTIMATE since the 8 statewide delegates aren't elected until April 25th! New Hampshire has 9 super delegates and they are not allowed to vote on the first ballot of the convention. The New Hampshire primary is run by the STATE so this should run much smoother than Iowa which was run by the IDP.

New Hampshire is an OPEN primary meaning registered Independents can request a Democratic ballot. Given that the Republican primary is the same day and Trump will be the winner, you could have right-leaning independents throw their vote to candidates like Yang, Gabbard, etc. You could also have right-leaning independents vote for Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden or they may sabotage and vote for Sanders/Warren. While we have quite a bit of polling data in New Hampshire, they might not be entirely accurate so don't be surprised if there's a surprise! We'll start getting results 5 PM PST!

Currently, Sanders has a commanding lead in New Hampshire and Buttigieg is a pretty far second. Both Buttigieg and Klobuchar have had considerable increases in their polling average over the past week so the race may be closer than . Warren has stagnated and Biden has dropped as expected. It seems that positions 1 and 2 are set but 3-5 are quite fluid. I believe that the herd will be culled after New Hampshire and we're only going to have a handful of serious candidates left. If Klobuchar manages to beat Biden, she may stay in the race but I think she drops out if she's in the single digits. Warren will stay in through Nevada I think but if she has a poor showing, she may drop out after New Hampshire as well. Biden is going to hang on until South Carolina since that's where his strength lies.

Current unofficial delegate count:
Buttigieg: 14
Sanders: 12
Warren: 8
Biden: 6
Klobuchar: 1

Iowa Caucus Thread: https://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=82619910&f=119

great summary t-cock

this is Barnie’s backyard so I expect a strong performance from him, and same with Buttigieg who is now in possession of old momentum.

real question for me is how will Biden perform. he’s polling 5th? Lol in any event i think if he makes it Super Tuesday though, he will do well there. and uh, does Bloomberg not even bother with primaries?

This post was edited by excellence on Feb 10 2020 03:03pm

Bloomberg has dropped over $350 million in ads already, and it's taking a huge toll on Biden. Biden might not survive SC. Bernie should win in NH, but can his momentum hold across the land? That's a good question.

Bloomberg isn't even on the SC ballot. He's all-in on Super Tuesday and he's hoping he has a strong showing there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire%27s_congressional_districts
I think Bernie does significantly better in the CD-2 than CD-1. CD-2 is more rural and much more "Vermont-esque" than CD-1. Granted, CD-1 could be split up quite a bit by establishment candidates so who knows? The 15% rule AND the rounding rules still apply so you're probably going to have some very angry people lol.

It's true, but pollsters are asking his name anyways.

If Biden loses SC, he's in serious trouble....to the point where he should consider dropping out. I won't even predict what that'd do to the race because it'd be an unmitigated disaster.

I really don't understand Bloomberg's thinking here. Is he hoping to grab enough delegates and push for a contested convention? Why is he splitting the moderate lane up if his goal is to stop Warren/Sanders?

Hillary Clinton

They will probably try to assassinate Bernie.

Wow, Amy Klobuchar is in first place with nearly 30% of the vote. Andrew Yang is in 4th place, just behind Sanders and Warren.

What's the source.