If Bernie wins and then beats Trump I'll convert to Christianity, probably Mormonism (I mean, not really, but yeah)

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Feb 11 2020 08:09pm

Yeah, both Iowa and New Hampshire imho havent been showings of strength by Sanders. He's performing fine, according to expectations, but hasnt shown particular strength imho.
On the other hand, Biden bombing and the "moderate lane" being fractured between Buttigieg/Klobuchar/Bloomberg is a huge strategical advantage for Sanders.

I'm not a professional pundit, but if I had to make a prediction based on the preliminary results, I would say tonight's result has greatly increased the chances for a contested convention.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 11 2020 08:13pm

I mean, Sanders winning vote counts in both is pretty good.

What would you consider a "showing of strength" in those states?

I agree. Granted, if Sanders doesn't start doing better, I'm not sure who the nominee will be during a contested convention. I think you need to have AT LEAST 40% support in order to come out as the nominee. Sanders hasn't even hit 30% in one of his strongest states which isn't a great sign. He could still get the most delegates but maybe he'll be FORCED to pick Klobuchar, Harris, or some other establishment/moderate candidate to balance the ticket.

Biden needs to win SC by double digits in order to have a shot at Super Tuesday. Bloomberg and Steyer may make that difficult for him. However, there's a bright side to all of this. Warren did far worse than Biden did according to expectations so that should take some heat off of him. Warren polling in the single digits is really bad given that Massachusetts is right next door.

Pete and Bernie are roughly in line with expectations but the big surprise is Klobuchar. She's going to get A LOT of attention.

Well in 2016 he got 60.14% of New Hampshire so

Winning Iowa by at least 3%.
Winning New Hampshire, the state next door to his own and where he absolutely murdered Clinton in 2016, by at least 10%.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 11 2020 08:34pm

I was low on Biden coming into the primary season, but damn. He has flopped really hard.

Klobuchar is a surprise tonight. She's doing well enough to justify keeping her campaign going for a while longer. Probably long enough to continue to split moderate votes with Buttigieg and give Sanders the nomination.

I think it will be difficult for Sanders to win the nomination if Warren stays in through Super Tuesday. I'm with Black in that a contested convention is looking more and more likely.

I now think Biden is UNDERRATED given that people are so down on him. It's no surprise that white people want to disenfranchise black folks.

What's really interesting to me is that all 3 of Buttigieg/Bloomberg/Klobuchar are strong with whites, but struggle with blacks (and to a lesser degree latinos). If blacks stick with Biden's dying campaign, Sanders will be almost impossible to stop. Dito if they split evenly among the remaining "moderates", or if a significant chunk of them now jumps ship to Bernie.

Another idea that came to my mind: what if Warren drops out after tonight, endorses Bernie, and Bernie announces that he picks Warren as his VP? The progressive lane would instantly be unified, and with joint forces, they could probably steamroll the fractured field.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 11 2020 08:59pm

Warren is too establishment to do that IMO. Unlike Bernie, Warren has very deep connections with the DNC and Washington. If anything, she may stay in and hope to be Biden's VP as part of a unity ticket.

57% of precincts reporting so far:
Sanders - 26.4%
Buttigieg - 23.7%
Klobuchar - 19.9%
Warren - 9.5%
Biden - 8.4%