Quote (Black XistenZ @ 21 Jan 2021 06:46)

Why are you focusing on deaths? They're the indicator with the largest delay...
In case you didnt know: reported infection numbers lag 1-2 weeks behind the actual infection events taking place (incubation period, getting the test, the positive test result being reported to the public health authorities). Reported deaths lag behind the respective infections by 3-6 weeks.

https://i.imgur.com/n24pL6U.jpg

The deaths that are being reported from the UK these days correspond to the infections which took place during their peak back in late December/early January. In some sense, these people were "dead man walking", their deaths were already baked in weeks ago. <_< :(

The more important message is that lockdowns seem to be similarly effective at containing the new variant which is dominant in the UK as they were at containing the older strains. One or two weeks ago, European heads of government and also some virologists and public health experts were concerned that even very strict lockdowns would barely be able to hold off the spread of this new variant, but not able to get cases down effectively. The concern was that the R-factor with the new variant could only be brought to around 1 with even the harshest restrictions viable in democratic societies. This fear seems to have been overblown. Don't get me wrong, this new variant is still a big problem, and it being more infectious complicates a lot of things - just not so badly that we would now need a Wuhan-style total lockdown, mere months from summer and vaccine-induced herd immunity.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 20 2021 11:54pm)

Cruel, disgusting, selfish... and probably true.


Like I've said before: if it were not for the threat of a collapsing healthcare system, most Western societies would have told their elderly that protecting themselves from the virus is their problem, and then went on with life. Some 10k or so deaths among the sub-60 group on the way to herd immunity would have been an acceptable sacrifice.

Quote (Thor123422 @ 21 Jan 2021 06:58)

If it was only serious for the elderly we would have just locked down nursing homes and called it a day. Focused shutdowns, masks, etc just for nursing homes and such would have been pretty easy if we didnt have to dedocate resources to everything else at the same time.

Quote (Saucisson6000 @ 21 Jan 2021 06:57)

"why are you focusing on deaths" ? That question seriously...

https://i.imgur.com/FXCbQy6.png

Quote (Black XistenZ @ 21 Jan 2021 07:10)

What is there not to understand? Yes, deaths are horrible and we want to prevent them, but like I just explained, death numbers are the wrong metric for the purpose of assessing the course of the pandemic and adjusting countermeasures.
By the way, that's a mistake most Western countries made back in October and early November: "oh look, we have 20k covid cases per day, but this time, the deaths are still very low, so I guess this infection level is actually fine". I'm myself guilty of falling for this kind of thinking back in October.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 21 2021 12:54am)

Cruel, disgusting, selfish... and probably true.


Like I've said before: if it were not for the threat of a collapsing healthcare system, most Western societies would have told their elderly that protecting themselves from the virus is their problem, and then went on with life. Some 10k or so deaths among the sub-60 group on the way to herd immunity would have been an acceptable sacrifice.

Quote (Kamahl16 @ Jan 22 2021 03:42pm)

Quote (Mangix @ Jan 22 2021 03:21pm)

I guess the good news is your bosses care enough to get a professional cleaning.
we still dont even have a mask mandate at work lol.
Just "go home if you have a fever and come back when its gone" with 66% of your pay if you have proof of testing positive, and 0% if you left but test negative.

Hope you're safe though.