Quote (Saucisson6000 @ 20 Jan 2021 21:31)
IMO you are horribly wrong, like few days ago when you were so "optmistic" with Uk that their numbers were going down; today 1.8k deaths.
Curfew seems ridiculous in some rural areas, clearly, but is pretty good in suburds or even small towns with alot of young people, especially week-end.
I guess it's harder to implement in germany with Landers. Mein freedom.
Why are you focusing on deaths? They're the indicator with the largest delay...
In case you didnt know: reported infection numbers lag 1-2 weeks behind the actual infection events taking place (incubation period, getting the test, the positive test result being reported to the public health authorities). Reported deaths lag behind the respective infections by 3-6 weeks.
The deaths that are being reported from the UK these days correspond to the infections which took place during their peak back in late December/early January. In some sense, these people were "dead man walking", their deaths were already baked in weeks ago.
The more important message is that lockdowns seem to be similarly effective at containing the new variant which is dominant in the UK as they were at containing the older strains. One or two weeks ago, European heads of government and also some virologists and public health experts were concerned that even very strict lockdowns would barely be able to hold off the spread of this new variant, but not able to get cases down effectively. The concern was that the R-factor with the new variant could only be brought to around 1 with even the harshest restrictions viable in democratic societies. This fear seems to have been overblown. Don't get me wrong, this new variant is still a big problem, and it being more infectious complicates a lot of things - just not so badly that we would now need a Wuhan-style total lockdown, mere months from summer and vaccine-induced herd immunity.