was laughing about that I've had several places with spray on while being in top tax bracket guess I'm just spending too much on wages and not enough on myself?

Not just that. On top of Trump's great performance in Florida, the NYT needle was showing Trump comfortably ahead in GA. Trump carried Iowa and Ohio with ease, and with margins close to his 2016 benchmarks. He also carried Texas far more comfortably than most pundits and pollsters predicted. GOP senators overperformed. GOP House candidates won the tossup races. Even with everyone expecting Trump to open a lead in MI/WI/PA, his 700k++ lead in PA seemed spooky.

Only late into the night did the good news for Biden come in: he has a huge lead from the mail ballots in Arizona, Trump will have a really tough time closing this gap with election day votes. Wait a minute, turnout in metro Atlanta is really high and the margins for Biden are there; he could still eke this state out in the end. Wait a minute, turnout in Detroit and Philly is really good too. Etc.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 4 2020 07:39pm

If you played these odds properly a lot of money to be made on both sides with good hedges

Just damn lol

Yea the model was tied DIRECTLY to the FL results as a whole as opposed to the suburban vs. Cuban trend that we saw specifically in FL.

This has nothing to do with the models. Independent from any models and any results out of Florida, there were a ton of good news coming in for Trump from all over the country. Things didnt start going in Biden's direction until hours later. The huge movement in the betting markets was justified based on the available info at the time.

Oh, I was just talking about the NYT needle thing. I feel like the "good news" was expected though. Maybe they didn't expect in-person turnout to be this high though and that's why we had all that action.

Can someone plz post betting odds for just Georgia, PA, NV, AZ?

damn I wonder whos doing this rn

You hedged 1:2 trump at ~4pm today ...

This is not what I was referring to. I was referring to the big boy swings like -400 -> +500 swings that both candidates have had over the last 24 hours

Biden is the 4.5-1 favorite in PA
Biden is the 6.5-1 favorite in NV
Biden is the 7.75-1 favorite in AZ
Trump is the 1.6-1 favorite in GA