Quote (thesnipa @ May 31 2019 07:40am)
Obama convinced his mandate to make Obamacare a thing, the public responded by taking Obama's mandate in both houses. Obama emasculated the GOP with EOs. The GOP was mad about this, called it an overreach of power. Trump agreed, a lot, on twitter and later in the campaigning, "i'm a real negotiator" he said.
Trump did almost nothing legislatively with his dual mandate, his first 2 years will be remembered historically as undoing Obama's EOs with a racing stripe of justices appointed. Then he lost half his mandate because of repeated scandals, rather than a typifying event that the other side rallied around such as Obamacare. It was border scandals, WH staff turnover, trade concerns, referendum of character, etc. Grab bag of shit people voted one way or the other on, and he lost the House. Then as he realized that he could neither legislate with a half mandate or even a whole mandate, he pivotted from EOs being bad to EOs being the best thing there is.
Obama expanding EOs and the power of the executive branch, bad. Trump, worse. it's really that simple. he has expanded it more, with a mandate he's ignoring, and Obama never promised reconciliation, he promised change.
I'm just thankful Trump is such a disaster as a leader of the legislature. He can currently be undone in the stroke of a pen. The portions of the wall he builds, the conservative justice he appoints, and a move of embassy in Israel will be his entire legacy. Which is a really short list compared to his campaign. Thank goodness. The second a democrat gets in in 2020 or 2024 these tariffs disappear, the next day Mexico and China announce trade agreements or business investment. Trump will look like an idiot. Neither country will make notable concessions before 2020 or 2024. the entire plan was from the start only riding on face validity. It started with "china do bad stuff" and ended with "so this will work to make them stop" with literally nothing inbetween except "we think this will hurt them". it's the coloring book equivalent of economics. paint by number for 7 year olds with a wish and a dream.
He's given social conservatives some wins policy-wise. These aren't plastered headlines as wins for conservatives rather that they are "attacks on xyz", "rolling back rights" etc, the usual spin.
Your problem is you're too sure of the outcome when there are so many different things that can occur that would completely change the calculus of the game. It's not only plausible but likely that struggling economies would cave instead of having a drawn-out trade war with a massive importer of their goods if for example Trump wins in 2020
It's impossible to say for certain how the chips will fall, but if Trump wins again, which there's a decent chance he might, I can see China looking to settle this and end the pain.
This post was edited by ofthevoid on May 31 2019 05:42pm