d2jsp
Log InRegister
d2jsp Forums > Off-Topic > General Chat > Political & Religious Debate > November 2018 > Elections
Prev15657585960120Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll
Views: 17747Replies: 1195Track Topic
Member
Posts: 51,333
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,400.67
#571
Oct 22 2018 10:33pm
Quote (ThatAlex @ 23 Oct 2018 06:21)
Considering where Republicans were in the generic congressional ballot just a few months ago, can they really ask for a better set of circumstances leading into the midterms?

-Fantastic economic numbers
-Brett Kavanaugh enthusiasm surge
-Upward Trump approval rating trend
-Visible group of thousands of brown people trying to cross border
-Elizabeth Warren 1/1024 gaffe

Not sure if the last one really moves the needle at all but included it for the luls. But seriously, this has been a timely surge for the GOP. Democrats are falling behind in key Senate races and the House doesn't even look like as sure of a thing anymore. Even if Dems take the House, these last few weeks probably mean the margin will be thinner, which could matter on key votes.


hmm, are the democratic house prospect really looking less sure?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo

on their forecast, the Democrats' chances in the House are continuing to go up, and are at the highest theyve been so far in this cycle.

Im expecting the points you mentioned to cause the forecast to tighten any day now, but so far, this late GOP surge hasnt materialized in the polls and fundraising numbers yet.
Member
Posts: 61,389
Joined: Mar 14 2006
Gold: 10.77
#572
Oct 22 2018 10:35pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 22 2018 09:33pm)
hmm, are the democratic house prospect really looking less sure?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo

on their forecast, the Democrats' chances in the House are continuing to go up, and are at the highest theyve been so far in this cycle.

Im expecting the points you mentioned to cause the forecast to tighten any day now, but so far, this late GOP surge hasnt materialized in the polls and fundraising numbers yet.


It's showing up in early voting exit polling in some swing states like Florida and Arizona.
Member
Posts: 104,195
Joined: Apr 25 2006
Gold: 10,655.00
#573
Oct 23 2018 05:19am


And....the Reps are still 6 points ahead on the Senate race, and catching up, again, on the House race.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html












Member
Posts: 12,379
Joined: Jul 14 2008
Gold: 2,620.00
#574
Oct 23 2018 06:27am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 22 Oct 2018 23:33)
hmm, are the democratic house prospect really looking less sure?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo

on their forecast, the Democrats' chances in the House are continuing to go up, and are at the highest theyve been so far in this cycle.

Im expecting the points you mentioned to cause the forecast to tighten any day now, but so far, this late GOP surge hasnt materialized in the polls and fundraising numbers yet.


I think it's a closer contest than FiveThirtyEight's model suggests. Vegas betting odds have the GOP's chances of retaining the House around 36%, which is more than double and almost triple what 538 says (13.5%).

I watched Trump's rally last night, and I think he's delivering a strong message right now. Meanwhile Democrats are flopping around with no coherent message and little political talent. To me, this has a lot of the makings of a midterm disaster for Democrats.

This post was edited by ThatAlex on Oct 23 2018 06:35am
Member
Posts: 51,333
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,400.67
#575
Oct 23 2018 08:59am
Quote (ThatAlex @ 23 Oct 2018 14:27)
I think it's a closer contest than FiveThirtyEight's model suggests. Vegas betting odds have the GOP's chances of retaining the House around 36%, which is more than double and almost triple what 538 says (13.5%).

I watched Trump's rally last night, and I think he's delivering a strong message right now. Meanwhile Democrats are flopping around with no coherent message and little political talent. To me, this has a lot of the makings of a midterm disaster for Democrats.


Yup, I think the 538 model is overrating the importance of the Democratic fundraising edge. But even at 36% as the Vegas odds are implying, the Dems would still be 2:1 favorites to retake the House...

Well, if the Dems fail to retake the House and Trump has 2 more years of unified control, their meltdown will be EPIC.
popcorn.gif.
Member
Posts: 12,379
Joined: Jul 14 2008
Gold: 2,620.00
#576
Oct 23 2018 09:16am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 23 Oct 2018 09:59)
Yup, I think the 538 model is overrating the importance of the Democratic fundraising edge. But even at 36% as the Vegas odds are implying, the Dems would still be 2:1 favorites to retake the House...

Well, if the Dems fail to retake the House and Trump has 2 more years of unified control, their meltdown will be EPIC.
popcorn.gif.


I think a 36% chance is pretty large, considering all the talk of a blue wave over the past two years. Can you imagine if Republicans held the House? It would feel like a death blow to this Democratic party.

And even if Democrats take the House, the signs are pointing toward a smaller majority. They have been running on impeachment, and there will probably be a handful of moderates Democrats in Trump states that don't want to pull the trigger on the vote. So every seat counts.
Member
Posts: 51,333
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,400.67
#577
Oct 23 2018 09:28am
Quote (ThatAlex @ 23 Oct 2018 17:16)
I think a 36% chance is pretty large, considering all the talk of a blue wave over the past two years. Can you imagine if Republicans held the House? It would feel like a death blow to this Democratic party.

And even if Democrats take the House, the signs are pointing toward a smaller majority. They have been running on impeachment, and there will probably be a handful of moderates Democrats in Trump states that don't want to pull the trigger on the vote. So every seat counts.


well, the impeachment talk might just be a ploy to get their base excited. by far the most important thing for democrats is to take at least one chamber, i.e. the house, so that they can stop Trump's policy agenda dead in its tracks.

everything else would be a cherry on top, but this is by far their biggest priority. winning the senate as well might be great for the Dems since they could then stop trump's judicial nominations (which he is dishing out in record numbers on the sub-SCOTUS-level!), but that's a real stretch with this year's map.
Member
Posts: 70,459
Joined: Feb 3 2006
Gold: 28,296.69
#578
Oct 23 2018 01:41pm
massive early turnout in early texas voting

and we know who that benefits
Member
Posts: 51,333
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,400.67
#579
Oct 23 2018 01:47pm
Quote (Beowulf @ 23 Oct 2018 21:41)
massive early turnout in early texas voting

and we know who that benefits


remember when the massive early voting in 2016 sealed off the deal for clinton and left trump with no room for a late comeback?
Member
Posts: 70,459
Joined: Feb 3 2006
Gold: 28,296.69
#580
Oct 23 2018 01:48pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 23 2018 12:47pm)
remember when the massive early voting in 2016 sealed off the deal for clinton and left trump with no room for a late comeback?


this is texas and it's about beto and cruz

have fun with that dream
Go Back To Political & Religious Debate Topic List
Prev15657585960120Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll

© 2003-2024 d2jsp  Contact