Quote (GSG @ 17 Jul 2019 13:35)
seems blurry
The four contracts in the A-range are the second highest only to Carolina (no other teams have four or more), with the top line and Mark Giordano all coming in at or close to $4 million less than their worth. Those offer some big savings that can be used to complement talent well. The Flames falter though by having some ugly deals that mitigate that advantage. Calgary is top-10 in surplus value and cost per win, but 17th in positive value probability.
The James Neal one is, of course, the sketchiest deal after a dismal first season in Calgary. Without much power-play time to boost his value, Neal’s stock plummeted and he’s now being paid close to $6 million to provide fourth-line value with little hope for a return to form. Michael Stone is added dead weight as someone being paid $3.5 million to stay in the press box, though at least there’s only one year left there.
The most surprising grade likely comes via Mikael Backlund, with my model pegging his deal as the team’s second-worst contract. Backlund has long been a fancy stats darling and his contract looked like it could be a bargain as a result, but his impact on play-driving has lessened over the last few seasons (with the emergence of linemate Matthew Tkachuk softening the blow of his actual results) and at age 30 things likely only get worse from here. He’s still a solid player, but I’m a little skeptical at how that deal ages.