Quote (thesnipa @ 25 May 2023 21:43)
correct, that's my point. his "advantage" would be that's he's less brash, and therefore could in theory draw more bipartisan support. but these days bipartisan support doesnt exist, so he has no advantage over trump in a primary.
I think there's two logical flaws with this.
1. You are assuming that the GOP primary electorate is making an informed and strategic choice to pick the candidate which they think has the higher chance of winning the general election. I disagree with both points. A big chunk, probably the majority, of Trump's die-hard supporters are deluded about his actual electability and genuinely believe that he's more electable than DeSantis. And a big chunk of the entire primary electorate will imho vote for the candidate they personally like more, rather than the candidate they think the rest of the country will like more.
2. There is almost no more bipartisanship, true. What there still is, however, are persuadable swing voters. We saw that in both 2020 and 2022. In 2020, Trump's base showed up in full force, but Biden still won because a critical mass of voters, particularly in the suburbs, abandoned Trump and switched over to him. And they did that because Biden was inoffensive enough. Had Bernie won the Dem nomination, I think Trump pulls it off and wins reelection for this exact reason. And in 2022, we saw a notable underperformance of pretty much every single GOP candidate who was perceived as an election denier or extremist. Likewise, there were a few races in which ideologically extreme Dem candidates unexpectedly lost re-election. 2022 was a really bad cycle for all sorts of wackos and crazies.
So in this sense, DeSantis presenting himself as a sane, drama-free Trump-clone should benefit him. Definitely in the general election, should he make it that far, but probably also in the primary. He's still the underdog for the primary though since Trump starts with such a high floor that DeSantis needs to consolidate almost everyone else.