If you have a 3% fixed mortgage and inflation is over 3% it doesn't make sense to pay it off. The mortgage itself is an investment.

That said, there is nothing good to invest in now. The Fed is planning to raise rates, so all those people buying on leverage are going to be in trouble soon and they are going to be forced to sell to make margin.

The Shiller P/E ratio is at 32.87 right now and the mean is ~17. The Fed has been keeping interest rates really low and running QE after QE. Buying bonds has been useless even though the stock market fundamentals are junk because bond rates were so low.

If bond rates start going up as fast as the Fed has said they are going to raise rates there may be a substantial move to bonds.

aka gambling? lol

You really think that investing in Proctor and Gamble, Raytheon, Waste Management, Colgate Palmolive, or Walmart is gambling?

I can’t say that I agree. Here over the next 10 years are going to be the best time to invest because you will be buying things at discounted rates. The same goes for real estate if you use cash.
You might not get a return for a while, but you will be glad you bought into them later in life.

i mean if you got time to manage your portfolio and watch over it until you want to retire...

edit: with that said, those are pretty solid choices

This post was edited by ChocolateCoveredGummyBears on May 4 2022 03:35am

How do you define a discounted rate? Shiller P/E is price divided by inflation-adjusted 10-year earnings.

33 now and the mean is 17. I would say that people are buying at sky high prices now.

Over the next ten years I expect that to drop significantly if interest rates keep climbing. That is the discounted rate I’m referring to.

Wow, I can't say I disagree. If that does happen, I predict a repeat of 2008.... I'm not looking forward to that. The Fed just raised interest rates 0.5 points and they claim they are going to pay down their balance sheet by $95 billion per month starting in June. I hope they aren't causing an unstable equilibrium by moving so fast. I sure wish they would have started doing this when times were good.

Oh it’s going to happen. It was bound to happen eventually though. It’s been a propped up house of cards since 08 and quantitive easing, but the Fed is running out of tricks.

I agree with this sentiment.
The good news is that if you are young you can buy stocks cheap and if you are old with a lot of capital you can buy homes with cash cheap.