Quote (Cransational @ May 17 2022 02:02am)
You are missing risk from your equation.
Okay but if he just invests it into a market ETF that mimics the S&P his beta is essentially one and if his risk-free rate is considered his mortgage rate whatever the difference is in the return of the S&P 500 lets say compared to that risk-free rate of 2% (probably got his mortgage at a low rate given the historical rates) is his risk premium.
Sure there's market turbulence right now, but we have historical averages to work with and with very rudimentary math its obvious if he has borrowed cheap money the risk premium of investing into a S&P fund returns more than paying down cheap money.
So unless you're highly risk-adverse in which case you're not going to invest into the market anyway even if you pay down your home or you're open to pulling margin on your investments of which is significantly more risky than debt on a home there's little argument here unless you think you can actually time the market of which historical data again suggests people absolutely cannot.
If anything having cheap money borrowed on a home at such a low rate is a prime period to invest. Essentially 4x leverage on something that has no risk of being margin called at lower than margin rates.
This post was edited by SBD on May 17 2022 08:05am