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#11
Jun 14 2019 11:37pm
Feeder 2 doors
Samurai 3 doors
Paladin 3 doors
Monk 4 doors
Ninja 4 doors
Warlock 5 doors
Headhunter 5 doors
Alchemist 6 doors

2 doors 1/2
3 doors 1/6
4 doors 1/24
5 doors 1/120
6 doors 1/720

Total 1/1022


Hope that helps

This post was edited by Meridius on Jun 14 2019 11:37pm
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#12
Jun 15 2019 01:44am
Quote (Meridius @ Jun 15 2019 12:37am)
Feeder 2 doors
Samurai 3 doors
Paladin 3 doors
Monk 4 doors
Ninja 4 doors
Warlock 5 doors
Headhunter 5 doors
Alchemist 6 doors

2 doors 1/2
3 doors 1/6
4 doors 1/24
5 doors 1/120
6 doors 1/720

Total 1/1022


Hope that helps


Door odd calculations are trivial, but thank you for the #door info.

Out of random curiosity, what do you mean by "Total 1/1022"?
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#13
Jun 15 2019 01:55am
Quote (Casey @ 15 Jun 2019 09:44)
Door odd calculations are trivial, but thank you for the #door info.

Out of random curiosity, what do you mean by "Total 1/1022"?


he means 8/1022 ( so one pass as feeder / one as samu / pala and so on till you finally pass the alch which is the 8 )




i just sumuirized my statistic

feeder -> 10/86 ( 1/6 chance )
samu -> 9/ 58 ( 1/6 chance )
pala 7/53 (1/6chance )
monk 4 / 98 ( 1/24 chance )
ninja 3/ 51 ( 1/24 chance )
wl 0/83 chance


my best class is ninja, which i already knew but worst is mage XD need around 50% more compared to the odds :thumbsup:

This post was edited by killerkrug on Jun 15 2019 01:56am
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#14
Jun 15 2019 02:35am
Quote (killerkrug @ Jun 15 2019 02:55am)
he means 8/1022 ( so one pass as feeder / one as samu / pala and so on till you finally pass the alch which is the 8 )


Er.....hate to break it to ya, but the chance of passing everything in a row (including alchemist) with absolutely no fails is:


.000000000023 Percent.......roughly 23/23000,00,000 (23 out of a trillion)


.......not 8/1022 (in which ladder would be resetting at least once a week) :o

2.3 x 10^(-12) if anyone wants to check if I missed a zero or not:

(1/2)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/24)*(1/24)*(1/120)*(1/120)*(1/720) = 2.3x10^(-12)

Waaaaaaaay better off going for the real life lottery, the odds are better.

This post was edited by Casey on Jun 15 2019 02:46am
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#15
Jun 15 2019 04:25am
well we talk about avg... so

first is a 50/50 chance to pass

so in matts example you need 2 mqs to pass next is samu which is 6 mqs with one pass... those 2 relates to a passrate to 2 passes /8 ( mqs or tries overall )
next one is 3/14
4/38
5/62
and so on
and at the end you get 8/1022


so 8 passes in 1022 tries overall and not about the 8/8 which you described ( highest/ best pass rate which i saw was a 5/5 and 8/~90 or so )

This post was edited by killerkrug on Jun 15 2019 04:27am
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#16
Jun 15 2019 05:47am
Quote (Casey @ 15 Jun 2019 10:35)
Er.....hate to break it to ya, but the chance of passing everything in a row (including alchemist) with absolutely no fails is:


.000000000023 Percent.......roughly 23/23000,00,000 (23 out of a trillion)


.......not 8/1022 (in which ladder would be resetting at least once a week) :o

2.3 x 10^(-12) if anyone wants to check if I missed a zero or not:

(1/2)*(1/6)*(1/6)*(1/24)*(1/24)*(1/120)*(1/120)*(1/720) = 2.3x10^(-12)

Waaaaaaaay better off going for the real life lottery, the odds are better.


you frogot that you dont need the passes in a row, that is why you don't need to multiply chances

the chance to reset, if you pass on every statistical average is 1 in 1022 tries
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#17
Jun 15 2019 07:31pm
Quote (Meridius @ Jun 15 2019 06:47am)
you frogot that you dont need the passes in a row, that is why you don't need to multiply chances

the chance to reset, if you pass on every statistical average is 1 in 1022 tries


Ahhhhhh shit.

I thought you guys meant all in a row.

Sorry lol. :wallbash:
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#18
Jun 15 2019 08:08pm
Quote (Meridius @ Jun 15 2019 06:47am)
you frogot that you dont need the passes in a row, that is why you don't need to multiply chances

the chance to reset, if you pass on every statistical average is 1 in 1022 tries



Sorry though, I'm not trying to be troll, but where do you get the 1/1022?

What does the bolded mean? That....isn't even a math/statistical phrase..."pass on every statistical average". What is that?

If it's what I think you're (trying) to say, then we'd need sample data. For you to come out with a number like that is......bizarre. I want to know how you came up with that (and what it actually means). Just wondering.

Maybe we have a different parameter in mind, I don't know :unsure:

This post was edited by Casey on Jun 15 2019 08:22pm
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#19
Jun 15 2019 09:30pm
Quote (Casey @ Jun 15 2019 10:08pm)
Sorry though, I'm not trying to be troll, but where do you get the 1/1022?

What does the bolded mean? That....isn't even a math/statistical phrase..."pass on every statistical average". What is that?

If it's what I think you're (trying) to say, then we'd need sample data. For you to come out with a number like that is......bizarre. I want to know how you came up with that (and what it actually means). Just wondering.

Maybe we have a different parameter in mind, I don't know :unsure:



Feeder 1/2
Sammy 1/6
Pally 1/6
Monk 1/24
Ninja 1/24
Warlock 1/120
Headhunter 1/120
Alchemist 1/720

If you are feeder and do 2 climbs, statistically you should pass.
If you are on warlock and do 120 climbs statistically you should pass.

2 + 6 + 6 + 24 + 24 + 120 + 120 + 720 = 1022

If you climb 1022 statistically you should have reset the ladder.
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#20
Jun 16 2019 05:40pm
Quote (hasteful @ Jun 15 2019 10:30pm)
Feeder 1/2
Sammy 1/6
Pally 1/6
Monk 1/24
Ninja 1/24
Warlock 1/120
Headhunter 1/120
Alchemist 1/720

If you are feeder and do 2 climbs, statistically you should pass.
If you are on warlock and do 120 climbs statistically you should pass.

2 + 6 + 6 + 24 + 24 + 120 + 120 + 720 = 1022

If you climb 1022 statistically you should have reset the ladder.


I'm confused....that is like saying "If you flip a coin twice, you should statistically get a head"

This post was edited by Casey on Jun 16 2019 05:40pm
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