Its expected value and percentages. Anyone that has basic knowledge of statistics can tell you this, yes, you are expected to pass within two climbs each being 50/50. Obviously there are variances, but yeah

In your case, yes, statistically you should hit heads once out of two flips being 50/50.

This post was edited by Pick on Jun 16 2019 05:47pm

That is the AVERAGE pass rate. The probability of it happening is 63.37 percent...........that is a far cry from "should pass".

That is close to the satistical average of something happening with a given probability: 1 - (1/e) = 63.2 percent (Example: Probability of getting shot in a day is 1/7. That doesn't mean you will get shot after 7 days. You have probability of 66.00 percent of getting shot in the week. Notice that it approaches the 1 - (1/e)

Statistics tell you that each time you perform the MQ as feeder, you should have a 50% chance of passing. Obviously, this isn't reality, but as your sample size approaches infinity, you should reach that limit.

I know.

Obviously he is mistaken, and did not mention he was thinking what's called "expected value"

I haven't done the calculations, but I find a value of 1/1022 (or whatever he said) intuitively wrong unless we have data. (I mean the TRUE value, not the theoretical mathematical value....in fact, that's the entire point of this post.....gather data, and see if the sample matches the null hypothesis)

This post was edited by Casey on Jun 16 2019 06:03pm

The 4 HC alchemists have 862 attempts between the 4 of them. I bet if the data was out there and you could look at all the characters to reach alchemist over all the seasons, it would be somewhere close to x/1022x where x is the number of resets that have been achieved (25sc+3hc, so maybe 28 resets/ 28616 attempts)

............Bolded in your quote is why I want the data and made the topic in the first place.

And now you're talking something different.....now you're talking probability of an alchemist resetting the ladder

We're going in circles here, or we are thinking of different probability events.

So please guys, please just post relevant data from now on, or else this topic could be closed for being....well, off topic.

This post was edited by Casey on Jun 16 2019 06:12pm

Looking at alchemists is really the only way to analyze the 1/1022 in my opinion, since I think they're really the only ones to be able to love up to their full potential

My sample size is much smaller, but here's what I have for this season:

Feeder, 1/8, 21
Samurai, 1/8, 213, 1x 2nd door fail
Paladin, 0/8, 213, 3x 2nd door fail

5/16 getting the first key on 3 doors is just about right on the mark, but my 1/8 on feeder was a bummer

If I did 1,000,000 two door master quests, how many pass vs fail would you expect?

It is funny how this has come full circle.

Feeder has 2 keys, you ONLY have a 50% chance to succeed in picking the CORRECT key. You pick key number 1, it is wrong, now you have to restart. You get to MQ again, and once again you have to choose between 2 keys, you ONLY have a 50% chance to succeed in picking the CORRECT key. You pick key number 2, it is wrong, now you have to restart (etc, etc)... Now, let us say that you ONLY chose key number 1 in both attempts... boom you passed on the second attempt.

Their 1/1022 is based on sticking to a set key order, BUT, they can also argue otherwise because all keys are random.

Each key has a % chance to pass, whether it be 1/2 or 1/6, it all boils down to luck or chance, however you want to word it. If you want to increase your odds of passing or finding out which key opens #X more often is not mathematically sound.

How about every single player doing a Master Quest all agree on one key sequence. The ONLY first key ever to be used is the 2nd Key. Now, when you pass, the first key used is #2, the second key to use is the 3rd key. Now everyone ONLY uses key 2 then key 3 when facing 3 keys until they eventually pass. Upon passing, you stick to the same sequence: Key 2 / Key 3 ... now your 3rd selection is Key 1, until you pass. The sequence changes on the next pass... so let us take a look at the key sequence that everyone COULD follow if they are all WILLING to do so for your stats:

F = k2 / k1
S = k2 / k3 / k1
P = k2 / k3 / k1
M = k2 / k3 / k1 / k4
N = k2 / k3 / k1 / k4
W = k2 / k3 / k1 / k5 / k4
H = k2 / k3 / k1 / k5 / k4
A = k2 / k3 / k1 / k5 / k6 /k4

And there you have it. A predetermined key sequence you can gather information on. It is up to others to help or not with their rates staying with that sequence. Good luck.

the key sequence/order does not matter at all. As it is random the chances for one order to work is the same for another

2 door = 1/2 x 1/1 = 50% = expected pass after 2 tries
3 door = 1/3 x 1/2 x 1/1 = 16.6666% = expected pass after 6 tries
4 door = 1/4 x 1/3 x 1/2 x 1/1 = 4.16666% = expected pass after 24 tries
5 door = 1/5 x 1/4 x 1/3 x 1/2 x 1/1 = 0.83333% = expected pass after 120 tries
6 door = 1/6 x 1/5 x 1/4 x 1/3 x 1/2 x 1/1 = 0.13888% = expected pass after 720 tries

the total chance to do a reset is actually 1/1022. To explain it: once you passed a class you do not need to redo it once you failed the next mq. With that in mind you need to add the individual expected tries instead of multiply them.