The Avalanche have a mountain of cap space with only a couple of free agents left to sign, and if any team can weaponize that it’s Colorado. We saw that once when they acquired starting goaltender Philipp Grubauer and they have the flexibility to do it again. In Nathan MacKinnon, the team has one of, if not, the best contracts in hockey, with Gabriel Landeskog and Nazem Kadri being solid bargains on top of that.
So why are they this low on the list? The team is ranked higher when it comes to surplus value and cost per win, but their average positive value probability is below average. That comes from a few overpayments on defence, mainly Erik Johnson and Ian Cole, both of whom are making a bit too much, and in Johnson’s case for a bit too long. Aside from them, and the star players on the team, there’s a lot of fair value deals here. Nothing wrong with that, but it explains why they’re closer to the middle of the pack.
The other reason is that Colorado should see a lot of value coming from their trio of players currently on ELCs, especially defenders Samuel Girard and Cale Makar.