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The Lions’ ideal free-agent options for their biggest areas of need
By Chris Burke Feb 9, 2021 14

Two realities facing the Lions, and new GM Brad Holmes, as they settle into an offseason that’s already been full of fireworks:

1. This new regime is wholly committed to building the Lions through the draft, no matter how long that takes or how difficult it may be to scout in 2021 — Holmes’ background as college scouting director in the Rams’ aggressive front office is a big part of why Detroit made that hire.

2. They’re just not going to have a lot of money to spend. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Sunday that the 2021 salary cap is expected to land around $181 million, and the Matthew Stafford-for-Jared Goff swap at QB means that the Lions will move from Stafford’s $33 million cap hit there to a $46.825 million charge ($19 million in Stafford dead money plus $27.825 million guaranteed for Goff).

Even with Holmes able to roll over around $13 million from last year — giving them $193.8 million in cap space, if it’s a $181M starting point — that’s still a huge chunk committed to one roster spot. Add in Trey Flowers’ nearly $20 million cap hit, Jamie Collins at $11.3 million, Halapoulivaati Vaitai at $10.4 million and possibly a Kenny Golladay franchise tag/contract, and it adds up quick.

The Lions could free up $20 million to $40 million with cuts, and more via restructured deals, but it’ll take a creative approach to give them any wiggle room in free agency.

Dan Campbell said as much when he spoke with The Athletic recently, in discussing his efforts to build a staff: “Nobody’s saying we’re not gonna try to win next year. That’s bull. We’re going to do everything we can. But there’s also a reason I brought in these coaches: We may have to rely on four college free agents to come in and start. Hey man, we’ve got guys that can develop those guys. We’ll do whatever we have to do here.”

Holmes promises to be an aggressive GM, which we’ve already seen in action. Out of the gate, though, that approach likely will connect more to trades and the draft. At least this year, the Lions won’t be at the front of the line when the market opens next month.

So, what can they do to make this roster more competitive in 2021? An early rundown of their most pressing needs, and a couple of suggestions for each:
Jayon Brown has an interception and eight pass breakups each of the past two seasons. (Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
Linebacker

Ideal option: Jayon Brown, Tennessee
Backup option: Alex Anzalone, New Orleans

I’ll try not to get too bogged down in the player-to-coach/GM past connections, but at least a couple reunions tend to be inevitable whenever there’s a regime change. Coaches like having at least a handful of players they know, to help both the on-field and off-field transitions. Anzalone could be one of those guys for Campbell and new defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. He’d also address a position of significant need, likely at a bargain price — Anzalone landed on IR in 2017 and ’19; the Saints attempted to replace him in their starting lineup in ’20.

If Holmes is willing to pay up in free agency, it’ll have to be for relatively young players who could be part of the long-term answers here. Brown, 26 later this month, fits. He’s one of the more consistent coverage linebackers in the NFL, and he’s excelled in those passing-down spots since his days at UCLA.
Wide receiver

Ideal option: Curtis Samuel, Carolina
Backup option: Josh Reynolds, LA Rams

Holmes can’t make roster decisions purely with the bottom line in mind. Kenny Golladay is an emerging No. 1 receiver who led the league in receiving TDs in 2019 (11) and can impose his will on the outside; Samuel is a 5-foot-10 make-you-miss player, who spent about two-thirds of his time last season aligned in the slot or backfield. They are completely different weapons and have to be assessed as such.

Still, if Holmes earmarks somewhere in the $18 million to $20 million range to upgrade at receiver, he’ll have to formulate a complete picture. Spotrac puts Golladay’s market value at $17 million per season (a franchise tag will be closer to $18.5 million-plus). It has Samuel at a $12.4 million projected average, so in theory the Lions could add Samuel and a low-priced option/draft pick to “replace” Golladay. And if they don’t target Samuel, they should be on the lookout for a receiver with a similar skill set — a matchup headache who can get into space.
LAR - WR
Josh
Reynolds
2020 stats
REC
52

YPR
11.9

YPT
7.6
Reynolds was targeted 81 times.

Reynolds is another one of those prior connections, both for Holmes and Goff. The Lions’ new QB has spoken highly of Reynolds, who was a 2017 fourth-round pick. He’s yet to put it all together, but he is coming off a career-best season (52 catches, 618 yards). With his 6-3 size and explosive athletic profile, Reynolds might be a nice, fairly cheap find.
Safety

Ideal option: John Johnson, LA Rams
Backup option: Jaquiski Tartt, San Francisco

The Rams might not be able to afford Johnson. The Lions probably can’t either. While the safety market can be tough to pin down, year to year, contracts at the high end are in the $10 million to $14 million range annually.

Should Holmes take one big swing in free agency, though, this might be the spot to do it. Holmes, of course, helped find Johnson in Round 3 of the 2017 daft, and Johnson since has developed into a premier safety. He’s proven to be a versatile option, capable of playing in the box, up high or over the slot. Assuming the Lions shift Tracy Walker back to more of his natural free safety spot, Johnson’s all-around game would pair extremely well. It’s a pipe dream, perhaps, but … maybe.

Otherwise, the Lions could go bargain hunting to complement Walker. Tartt offers a linebacker/safety hybrid skill set, and he very well may be available during the second or third round of free-agent action — he hasn’t played more than 12 games in a season since 2016. A more high-profile, box-safety option: Keanu Neal, from Atlanta. A year removed from an Achilles injury, he racked up 100 tackles in 2020 and can bring some of that thunder Campbell will want down near the line.
Dawuane Smoot finished the 2020 season with 4.0 sacks in his final six games. (Douglas DeFelice / USA Today)
Defensive line/edge

Ideal option: Shelby Harris, Denver
Backup option: Dawuane Smoot, Jacksonville

Still guessing at exactly what the defensive scheme will look like, but Harris would fit regardless of the final setup. That’s especially true because he has been productive as a pass rusher — 6.0 sacks in 2019, 11 QB hits (and 2.5 sacks) this past season. It should be a priority this offseason to find a disruptive three-tech. The Lions don’t really have one, unless Holmes and Campbell are convinced this is finally going to be the year Da’Shawn Hand stays healthy and takes a huge leap.

Detroit also needs more off the edge, its desperation level there to be driven by Romeo Okwara’s future. Smoot would be a more affordable replacement option. His development took a bit after the Jaguars used a Round 3 pick on him in 2017, but he just put together a strong year (5.5 sacks, 17 QB hits) under new Lions defensive line coach Todd Wash.
Running back

Ideal option: Jamaal Williams, Green Bay
Backup option: Mike Davis, Carolina

Improve your team and hurt a division rival — what’s not to like? Campbell has made little secret of his desire to find a back to pair with D’Andre Swift for a 1-2 punch. Williams knows all about that type of role, having spent his first four NFL seasons behind Aaron Jones on the Packers’ depth chart. Over that span, Williams averaged 155.5 touches per season and 736.5 yards from scrimmage, with 500 rushing attempts and 122 catches.

He’d fit well with what OC Anthony Lynn’s scheme could be. He’d also make it easier to disguise what’s coming from the offense, as opposed to the Swift/Adrian Peterson splits of 2020.

Davis has more of that downhill, bowling ball-type build, but he showed in Christian McCaffrey’s absence this season — as he did for Seattle in 2018 — that he’s entirely capable of a) running outside the tackles and catching the football. The Rams have used a bunch of draft picks in recent seasons on backs, but it might be better business for the Lions to lean into Swift and pick through free agents again.

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Michigan State and the improbable 16-day run to an NCAA Tournament bid
By Brendan Quinn Mar 7, 2021 30

EAST LANSING — Some Michigan State students, perhaps less than sober, were looking to celebrate a win over rival Michigan early Sunday night and had nowhere else to go, so they congregated outside the front door of Breslin Center. Braving the cold, Rocket Watts signed autographs and posed for pictures, slinging his arm around strangers, stretching a big smile for the camera — a scene you might not have expected to see as recently as 16 days ago. One student yelled out, “Hey, Rocket, tell Josh that we say thanks!” — a comment you might not have expected to hear as recently as 16 months ago.

Time has a funny way of changing what’s possible. So, too, does this Michigan State basketball team.

Let’s consider Watts. Sixteen days ago, when Michigan State was 10-9 overall and 4-9 in the Big Ten, his season was considered a total wash. The sophomore was wandering through an erratic, maddening year, one in which he scored 20 and 23 points in December wins over Detroit and Duke, then averaged 6.0 points per game on 29.2 percent shooting in the next 21 games. It was worth wondering, given the nature of college basketball nowadays, if he might be playing his final days as a Spartan. Even as recently as Thursday night, Watts was in Tom Izzo’s doghouse, having failed to dive for a loose ball, and was benched for the final 17 minutes of a loss at Michigan.

And let’s consider Josh Langford. Sixteen months ago, in October 2019, he was sent back to the surgeon’s table with a recurring foot injury. There were fears he’d never play again, let alone suit up for Michigan State. Langford’s collegiate journey has long felt Shakespearean in scope, a saga told and retold because there are lessons in there somewhere. He arrived at Michigan State in the summer of 2016 as a can’t-miss, all-everything prospect with an NBA career ahead of him. All this time later, he’s a 24-year-old What If?

None of it has been easy, but on Sunday, both Watts and Langford, along with the entire Michigan State team, got what they had coming to them. The hands of time came together and shook on it.

Michigan State beat rival Michigan 70-64 in a game that not only punched the Spartans’ ticket to the NCAA Tournament but also marked the team’s third win over a top-five team in two weeks, assured that this impossible pandemic season wasn’t for nothing, and left Izzo walking off the Breslin Center court brushing away tears. His program is on its way to a 23rd straight appearance in the dance.

“Probably six games ago, when we were looking at playing four top-five teams, I said it’ll be a memory-making experience if you can do your job,” Izzo said. “To win three out of four of those games, with the schedule we had, I just think speaks a lot about the character of our guys.”

That character was tested Thursday night. Michigan State players and coaches were forced to live out some kind of crude nightmare. They gathered outside the visiting locker room at Crisler Center collecting postgame meals and preparing to board the bus back to East Lansing as Michigan players made snow angels in confetti and celebrated a Big Ten championship. The Wolverines won Part I of this very odd late-season rivalry doubleheader 69-50, overwhelming Michigan State in a second-half romp that showed a massive gap between the teams.

Sunday was different. Sunday showed Michigan State can adjust and adapt.

Lord knows the Spartans spent the entire season doing so, sometimes successfully, sometimes not.

In the rematch, Michigan State summoned some offensive support around star Aaron Henry, getting key contributions from Watts and Joey Hauser, and held Michigan’s top three scorers (Franz Wagner, Hunter Dickinson and Isaiah Livers) below their season averages. The Wolverines suffered a heavy blow early in the first half when starting guard Eli Brooks went down with an ankle injury and struggled mightily without him.

Now Michigan State is safely in the NCAA Tournament and most likely will avoid a spot in the First Four. MSU is trending toward a No. 10 or 11 seed, which would have sounded totally improbable two weeks ago.

That changed with a Feb. 20 come-from-behind win at Indiana, a Feb. 23 home upset of Illinois, a Feb. 25 home upset of Ohio State, another win over Indiana on March 2 and Sunday’s win versus Michigan.

“The guys that we’ve got around us, the coaching staff and my teammates, they know what it takes,” Watts said Sunday. “We were practicing hard through the ups and downs, and tonight it showed.”

Watts dropped 21 on Michigan in a performance that seemed to uncap all of his bottled talent. Michigan State drew up play after play for him to curl off screens and attempt pull-up jumpers from the elbows. He was aggressive but mostly under control, and he made eight of 16 shots to go with four assists. He also ran some action at point guard and helped the Spartans dial up some transition offense.

One of the great ironies of Michigan State’s surging finish to the regular season is that it will now be considered one of Izzo’s all-time coaching performances (or magic tricks, depending on how you look at it). In reality, he freely admits this year’s coaching was rife with struggles and not without mistakes. His handling of Watts was at the center of it all. The 6-foot-2 scorer was kind of turned into a point guard, except he wasn’t one, and there are myriad reasons to explain why it didn’t work, notably the lack of an offseason. Regardless, the plan blew up in everyone’s face. On Sunday, Izzo said he and Watts have had a lot of good conversations this year. This was code for the two having plenty of issues needing to be hashed out over the course of the season.

“I was proud of his character,” Izzo said. “I was proud of him, and I’ve told him when I wasn’t. It is tough love, but it’s the right thing to do.”

The fact that Sunday ended with Watts fighting back tears while hugging Izzo spoke volumes to everything that has happened in the last 16 days. It also spoke volumes to what this day meant for Watts. Early in the game he looked up in the stands and saw his mother. It marked the first time she had seen him play in college. Watts took that emotional voltage and overwhelmed Michigan with it.

It all felt so appropriate.

But nothing was more appropriate than Langford. If there’s to be a portrait painted of this season, let it be of the senior, with his follow-through held high, eyes wide open, watching the 367th 3-pointer of his 108-game career, fly high.

Michigan State led 61-59 with under a minute to go in a game that seemed to be coming apart at the seams. Langford was in the middle of the undoing, having committed a turnover and a personal foul on the previous two plays. With that, the Spartans found themselves eye to eye with a possession that had to end with points. Henry swung the ball to Langford. “Shoot it!” Izzo yelled.

Was it a great look? Not particularly.

Did it look like it was going in? Not really.

And yet, perhaps the biggest shot of Langford’s career splashed in, setting off an eruption on the Michigan State sideline and among those few friends and family gathered in the stands. Included in that group were Tellus and Yolanda Langford, Josh’s parents. They drove up from Alabama for the game. They declined an interview after the game because, really, what else is left to say?

It has been a long road for everyone.

Whether it was 16 days.

Or 16 months.

This post was edited by Crunkt on Mar 8 2021 08:12pm

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