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“Pneumonia kills about 50,000 people each year in the U.S., according to the CDC.

This year, at least 89,555 deaths have been attributed nationwide to pneumonia between February and mid-May.

It tends to follow a typical flu season, coming on in December and peaking in January and February before declining in March to April.

But preliminary CDC data from this year show pneumonia deaths steadily climbed in March to peak in April, mirroring the trend line for deaths linked to the coronavirus outbreak.

Surrounding states are also seeing death counts several times greater than normal:

Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384)

Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782)

Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611)

Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820)

Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451)

West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117)”

Quote (Kayeto @ 27 May 2020 01:47)

Links to CDC data:

CDC numbers for 2020 (since Feb 1) here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

CDC mortality numbers from 1999-2018 can be searched by month, state, and cause here: https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html

Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 26 2020 09:44pm)

What's your point? That's textbook prevention paradox.

Simply put, you cannot compared the visible Covid-numbers which were left after the whole country went to unprecedented lengths to stop Covid with the full, unmitigated pneumonia numbers.

The explosive growth of Covid-cases in NYC and many parts of Europe should really be enough to prove the potential of this disease. The right course of action would have been to start social distancing and mask wearing earlier, followed by a more gently-sloped curve of infection numbers and an earlier reopening of the country.

Quote (Kayeto @ 27 May 2020 03:49)

The point is: Do you really believe that all the deaths attributed to pneumonia are actually just pneumonia and not covid?

The weekly reported pneumonia deaths increased this year from March to April (in most years it declines during that period).

Overall, we are reported to have twice as many pneumonia deaths so far this year than we normally have in an entire year. Does that seem reasonable?

Or is it more likely that many of these so-called pneumonia deaths are actually being caused by covid?

Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 26 2020 09:02pm)

There will of course be some masquerading effect in play here, with covid deaths labelled as pneumonia. But the extent is almost impossible to estimate for non-experts like us. An amateur analysis of the numbers wont get you anywhere.

Pneumonia numbers fluctuate quite a lot from year to year, depending on the weather and the course the seasonal flu took that year. Getting a meaningful estimate of the baseline number of pneumonia deaths that would have been expected this particular year if there had been no coronavirus is very complicated and not something you can do by looking at raw numbers.

Quote (Thor123422 @ May 26 2020 10:35pm)

is a virus that causes pneumonia appearing that hasn't previously existed.

Quote (Kayeto @ May 26 2020 09:53pm)

Let's say that we are looking to report the effect of the coronavirus pandemic.

If a person gets corona, which then causes them to get pneumonia, then they die of the pneumonia: Should that death be reported as part of the coronavirus pandemic?