Quote (thundercock @ Jun 28 2021 10:17pm)

The expectation should be that the House will be a disaster for the Dems because of redistricting. Only a handful of blue states DON'T have independent redistricting commissions and they don't really have many districts when you combine them all. Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania now use independent commissions so it's possible that things will be a bit more fair.

The Senate is difficult to predict because it really depends on who is up for reelection. I'd say that Democrats have an advantage there because so many Republicans in purple/pink states are retiring. It's not a terribly big advantage though. Ultimately, Biden isn't going to be the one who makes or breaks Dem success during the midterms. Much of it is preordained.



Crowd size is meaningless. You only get 1 vote no matter how excited you are.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 28 2021 11:47pm)

I dont think the bolded part is true. Biden is the leader and public face of this administration, his raw and net approval ratings capture how satisfied/dissatisfied Americans are with their Democratic government - and that will set the tone for the midterms. Trump's skyhigh disapproval and middling approval ratings definitely set the tone for the 2018 midterms, didn't they? I see no convincing arugment why the same shouldnt be the case for Biden and the 2022 midterms.

Sure, based on redistricting, we would assume a House result of R+10seats in a repeat of the environment from 2020, but Biden's popularity can make the difference between Republicans barely capturing a majority and them getting to 240+ seats. In the Senate, with lots of close races being expected, he can make the difference between losing the chamber or gaining enough seats so that Manchin (and Sinema) can no longer block his agenda.

According to 538, the generic congressional ballot and the president's approval ratings are the two biggest predictors of how a midterm election will go.

Quote (thundercock @ 29 Jun 2021 21:06)

Oh, I think it will be much much more than R+10 but it will ultimately how each state draws it's districts. For example, Missouri is currently 6 GOP, 2 Dems. It could easily be 7 GOP, 1 Dem: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1403081325775577094

Texas is currently 24-13 GOP but will get 2 seats. If Texas wants to be aggressive, they could get R+10 from that state alone. This is all conjecture though and we really need to wait for the maps.

As for Biden, he doesn't really seem to be the face of the party compared to Trump/Obama. I think how people feel about Congress will be much more impactful.

Quote (Superman @ 29 Jun 2021 23:08)

If Joe Biden finishes his second term, he will be 86.

Quote (IceMage @ Jun 24 2021 08:31pm)

Why would patriots like Trump and yourself care about soldiers being posted around the US Capitol?

Quote (Superman @ Jun 29 2021 04:08pm)

I think they should put an age limit of 60 on the eligibility requirements to be President of the United States and to be a Senator because senility is a real thing. If Joe Biden finishes his second term, he will be 86.

That goes for Trump too.

Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 29 Jun 2021 23:25)

Let's make it more dynamic. Limit the age of the president during the election year to below the 75th percentile age of the country and instead of having a minimum age of 35 have it be the bottom 25th percentile.

Quote (EndlessSky @ Jun 29 2021 12:42pm)

njaguar was right about bathrooms.

there is only one solution.