538 Candidate chances:

Sanders
Before Iowa: 3.5 in 10
After NH: 5.5 in 10

Biden
Before Iowa: 4.5 in 10
After NH: 1.5 in 10

Buttigieg
Before Iowa: 0.5 in 10
After NH: 1.0 in 10

Surprised Buttigieg is only at 1 in 10 after two good showings. Guess it just speaks to how White NH and Iowa are. He'll do worse in states with more POC, but maybe not as bad as originally thought after recent Quinnipac polling.

I think the DNC fucked up by caving to Bernie's demands. By removing "winner take all" states, it becomes MUCH harder to consolidate support among a single candidate. If anything, it's the voters that are fucking up. The "winners" are still in the mid 20s which means that everyone is taking their fair share of delegates. Donald Trump was winning in the mid thirties at this point of the election.

Iirc, PaRD (and jsp as a whole) is almost exclusively white, male, 24-40 years old. And at least PaRD probably skews heavily toward people with a college-degree. So yeah, we're definitely not representative and form a bubble of our own.

That said, I dont underestimate the importance of the black vote in the Democratic primary - I just doubt that they will really stick with Biden in the face of disastrous results. It's not like Biden has decades-old, super-tight ties to the black community. Before he became Obama's VP, he actually had very few such ties. I also dont think that they will stick with him en masse since electability is an important factor for them, and Iowa and NH have really cast a big shadow of a doubt on Biden's case for electability.

Also, retaining his black support wouldnt help Biden much anyway if he continues to get wiped out among all other demographics.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 11 2020 11:33pm

He does though...that's why they like him so much. However, black voters are extremely pragmatic and they tend to back the winner. They may abandon him in later states but I REALLY doubt that they'll do it in SC.

But you're right, Biden can't win with JUST the black vote. I'm sure he'll get some rust belt folks though since that's part of his bread and butter. They aren't as loyal though.

It seems like Bernie and Pete tied in terms of delegate count: 9 each. Klobuchar managed to get 6 delegates.

That brings the ESTIMATED delegate count to:

Buttigieg: 23
Sanders: 21
Warren: 8
Klobuchar: 7
Biden: 6

Women have been met with a lot of hostility and misogyny here when they've came. We have had several female users. It's been awhile.

This post was edited by Skinned on Feb 12 2020 05:38am

im pretty sure all users are hit with hostility

does not appear to be LARPfag, appears legit, as they actually posted pictures / more details to facebook page. Of course, its not exactly a very significant incident, but still







This post was edited by Goomshill on Feb 12 2020 08:09am

Widow was super hostile to catkaboodle (sp?) when she was here. Way more than other users, and way creepier.

Had a few Muslim users pop in as well, they didn’t stick around long.