Quote (ofthevoid @ Jun 12 2023 03:42pm)
Naa. This is the start 'high' ask, similarly to when negotiating price. You never start or ask where you think you you will actually end up.
Realistic ask or expectation is Crimea is Russian, that's pretty much set in stone. The original (pre-full scale war) Donbas remaining Russian or autonomous and this war is being fought over what happens with ZAP, Kherson and the regions of the Donbass that were taken over when Russia announced SMO, at least that's what I think.
I think collective wants to see how the counter-offensive goes. If it goes well and they cut off the land bridge, they want Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength. I still think the longer this war goes on the more toxic it will be for western politicians, I don't think Biden wants to go into 2024 with war still raging on and us still committing hundreds of billions.
I'm pretty sure Biden does want to prolong the war, else they would have made a deal last year.
Biden has stated that he wants regime change in Russia, and essentially I see no other narrative right now.
It would be pretty much double standards if Ukraine wins back all of its land and then asks for peace. Better to find some middle ground. The means in the unlikely event that Ukraine regains alot of its land, Russia then counter attacks and they land somewhere in between the two points ?
TLDR the war continues well into next year and beyond.