What are you trying to insinuate?

Where exactly are you seeing a contradiction? If both Russia and the West take an economic hit of say one trillion dollars, Russia will be affected far more because a hit of this size represents 60% of their annual GDP while it only represents 6.2% of the EU's GDP.

Your entire logic only pans out if the "pain point" (amount of economic suffering that's necessary to drive the commoners to the streets in protest against this war) is something like 10 times higher in Russia than in the EU. Yes, the Russian people are more committed and willing to sacrifice for the Ukranian cause than the people in the West, but most definitely not to such a lopsided degree. This entire thing could only have worked for Putin if Europe had gotten into a proper gas shortage without his supplies, triggering economic chain reactions across entire industries etc. pp.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 1 2023 06:11pm

GDP is a very limited metric because it ignores purchasing power parity. But the big point to make here that's evident from this war as well as covid money printing wave is that actual physical resources > fiat currency which can be devalued at will. Who cares about zeros on a computer which represent the billions and trillions in GDP and currencies when it's crystal clear that real things like energy, food, metals are what matter fundamentally. Charlie Munger, Buffett's right hand man basically said that in the next hundred years the dollar is going to zero, I think he's probably going to be right, meanwhile the raw resources that Russia has will always retain inherent value.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Feb 1 2023 08:37pm

How much does a 'big hit' cost at Vkusno & Tochka in Moscow? I want to adjust the big mac index for pricing parity into 2023 but America's new shiny iron curtain keeps you from seeing daily life in Russia pretty effectively

Nikita Khrushchev did terrible nuclear threats during the Berlin crisis. When Ussr collapsed false numbers regarding its economic indicators have been exposed. Along with gulag camps data...
Don't be scared by lies.

So according to you Russia's tiny economy is suffering trillions in losses.

That's exactly like saying that Russia's trash army that can't do anything right is threatening to conquer Europe.

LOL

Our ruskie friend chimed in to say the Big Hit isnt out yet but will be in the 139-149 ruble range

in terms of PPP its about 2.5:1 on the big mac index

This post was edited by Goomshill on Feb 2 2023 04:53am

I don't disagree with anything you're saying, in particular the bolded part. But none of that is an actual counterargument to the point I was making. Yes, Russia might sit on a lot of natural resources, and that gives them a certain baseline, they will never collapse to the point where civilization breaks down entirely. But in spite of all their resources, their industrial output (real, physical, tangible things) is pitiful and doesn't compare to that of Europe, let alone Europe + USA + Japan + South Korea + Australia.




1. If you read back in this thread, you will see that I have always been pushing back against this notion that Russia could conquer Europe. As early as April of last year, I was saying that Russia wouldn't even be able to conquer Poland, let alone the rest of Europe.

2. I wasn't saying that Russia has already suffered trillions in losses, I said that the sum of all the costs this war will inflict on them will eventually go into the trillions. This figure includes the direct economic consequences (sanctions, collapse of trade with the West), the increased military spending, the indirect costs (having to sell to China and India at a discount, literally burning excess gas which was slated for Europe rn), the costs from missed investment and maintenance (struggling to replace worn out components in their energy industry, not opening up new oil and gas fields), and the loss of future revenue and market share.

3. I've have repeatedly stressed that the economic impact of this war comes on an asymmetric timescale: the West takes the biggest hit in the short-term (3-18 months after the start of the war) while the adverse effects on Russia will only unfold their full potential in the medium-term (18-36 months).

The EU is being hit harder (trillions) due to much larger economies and much larger populations like you said yourself in a previous post. You cannot possibly inflict that same kind of damage on the small Russian economy.

Bolded: Sure, the sanctions are hurting Russia but they find ways around the sanctions just like Iran, sanctions are not going to stop Russia.