Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 2 2023 03:06pm)
This is not how this works. The EU is not automatically being hit harder (in absolute terms!) just because its economy is bigger. It might well be, but it's not a given.
For the record: I'm not a fan of the economic war the West has unleashed on Russia, and the energy sanctions in particular were just moronic. This does not, however, imply that Russia will come out unscathed, that Europe will be economically ruined, that Russia is outright "winning" the economic war or whatever else the Kremlin talking point of the day is.
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The economic war weakens us both compared to China and the US. We are US' partners. Whoever is the geopolitical advisor of white house is a huge idiot. They basically accelerated US and EU's downfall. Russia HAS to ask China for support. We've got no leverage over them anymore.
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 2 2023 03:06pm)
No sane person ever claimed that Russia will be so ruined that their people will end up literally starving on the streets. :rolleyes:
Also, if there's one lesson history told us, it's that the weak are hit harder by crises than the strong. There definitely is no automatism that you lose more the more you have.
To name just one example, look at the way the West was able to flex its financial muscle to buy up LNG from around the world and thus mitigate the impact of Russia closing the gas tap. Because we were strong, we were able to soften the impact on ourself and force weaker nations (Sri Lanka, Pakistan etc.) to shoulder some of the burden which was meant for us. Or look at how low skill workers are the first to be laid off during a recession and the last ones to be rehired once the recession is over.
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Standard of living in Russia isn't high to begin with. Their people are going to "cope" just like they did after soviet Russia fell apart. Our people don't even know how it is to live in subpar standards.
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 2 2023 03:06pm)
The West didn't instigate the Iranian revolution. The West installed a corrupt ruler to do his bidding (the Shah) which led to the revolution, so it carries a hefty amount of moral guilt. But still, it was the Iranian people themselves who either genuinely supported the theocratic extremism of Khomeini, or got duped by him like all those female students who were ardent supporters of the revolution until they realized that the new regime would turn them into oppressed second-class citizens.
Leaving them to themselves without any means to defend was the same as a sentence. Imagine Ukraine without the western support..
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 2 2023 03:06pm)
That's not actually true. China suffered from centuries of cultural and technological stagnation until they were hopelessly lagging behind the Western world, followed by 2 centuries of decline, chaos, misery and humiliation. In 1950, China was one of the poorest nations on the entire planet, worse off than many African nations. The reason China was able to bounce back is their sheer size and their embrace of market-based economics, not some "inherent cultural strength". Italy hasn't been on top of Europe or the world for over 1800 years.
It's true, western nations stole everything possible from India and China. That was the advantage of gunpowder and acquired higher technological standpoint. All of that can be traced back to renaissance in 16the century. Even gunpower was invented by Chinese. Most of the fruits or vegetables come from China or Americas besides the berries native to Europe. Clothing style with pants is also derived from there. What you see right now is the erosion of the cultural, material and technical advantage gunpower and later atom bombs provided. They'll be back on the table and we won't be able to do anything about it because they're numerically superior.
About Italy, they're interesting in the sense that when shit will go down the drain at some point, they're going to be the place where Europe will stand up again.
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Feb 2 2023 02:58pm)
Right... And by falling apart you mean the highest living standards of anywhere, ever in recorded history?
Its all relative.
Dude, Scots were really good warriors at some point and that's it. Most of your history is all about famines on an Island or being subjugated by Anglosaxons. You guys literally escaped to US to have a life at all.
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Feb 2 2023 02:58pm)
I think what he is saying is Russia's economy is brutally undiversified. Sure the gas station might sell drinks and snacks, but when 60% of your state budget comes from selling gas/oil.
Thats a problem.
They don't give two fucks about diversity. I can tell you why: you can't miss something when you don't know how it'd be if you had it. They never had high standards, they aren't going to miss anything.
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 2 2023 05:50pm)
Might be true when it comes to oil, but definitely not true when it comes to natural gas. Also note that one of your favorite talking points about LNG being inherently more expensive than pipeline gas cuts both ways - in the future, when Russia sells its oil and coal to India or Africa, the high transportation costs apply too, meaning that Russian fossils lose a big chunk of their competitiveness on the world markets.
TTF futures, one of the leading indicators of gas prices in Europe, are now lower than they were 1 year ago, before the start of the war:
https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5508663&span=2https://i.imgur.com/2xBwBWw.jpgYes, due to the higher shipping costs, gas prices in Europe will never come back down to the super cheap levels they had before mid-2021, but "cheap-enough" is feasible and all the talk about the "inevitable deindustrialization" of Europe is vastly exaggerated.
We permanently pay higher prices for the same goods, our industrially made products are going to cost more, they're going to be less competitive in an already very competitive world market. We've got 0 leverage on Russia through economical means. But wait, Russia is going to suffer losses, too? What do I care about what happens over there?
This post was edited by babun1024 on Feb 2 2023 11:50am