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Oct 2 2022 01:22pm
Quote (kusotarre1 @ Oct 1 2022 04:21pm)
lol, even Russia-haters like Santara admit that Ukraine is taking 2-3 times as many losses as the Russians. Real number is probably close to the 10-1 the Russians claim when you see Ukrainians conscripting students.


1-1.5x as many, not 2-3x in my opinion. 10-1 is a pipe dream.





Separately: https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1576602192990961664



Ukraine has smashed through the Russian front lines in northern Kherson oblast, with some reports of units reaching Dudchany. If they can press their advantage, they might rout the orcs west of the Dnieper.
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Oct 2 2022 01:36pm
1.5-2x is probably correct. Any higher is fantasy.

Not that kill/death ratio matters (historically)


UKR pushing currently, but this equation will be tilted and grinded to a halt once the 300k get into action. The russians have 3 choices really:

1: Leave and go home
2: Entry of the 300k, grind to a halt and go into bloodbath attrition mode (possibily a deal). If not a deal, this is the worst scenario which will cause most bloodshed on both sides.
3: Call in 1 million, push and end this before winter ends. Actual war, destroy all infrastructure, electricity/trains/gas/water etc

Personally i think it will be option 2 because putin is a pussy

This post was edited by ownyaah on Oct 2 2022 01:48pm
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Oct 2 2022 01:45pm
Quote (Ironfister @ Oct 2 2022 09:47pm)
Its not racist because:
1) its truth. Majority of Russians are fine with their country attacking other countries like Ukraine. They kind of dont like the mobilization thing, because they would rather stay at home than risk their own life.
2) its about behaviour and actions, something people can change. If you steal things, and I call you "thief" its not racism, because it was your decision to steal things. It doesnt have anything to do with your skin color, its because of your actions, who were wrong.

I specifically said in my posts, that I blame russian TV, which, as we all know, is run by politicians. So its mainly, if not only, the politicians responsible.

One could say that any discrimination against citizens of other countries is forbidden as all people are equal and deserve equal rights.
But one example. Does your country allow unlimited travel and immigration from various poor areas of the globe? Of course not. Which means that your country can be called racist too, because you limit other people rights based on their country of origin.
See where it goes?
Im all against racism, but lets not get crazy in total equality of rights for all people around the globe, the world aint perfect and we cant pretend it is.
If the Europe were 5billion people, and other continents just 1billion, we could maybe take them all in. But its otherwise proportion, and we cant really absorb 5billion people from different cultures as a 0,5billion continent. We need to tell them: "sorry, we cant absorb too many people from outside cultures, we cant give you visa".


I dont know why poles are so emotional about ukraine. Not long ago ukranians were putting your village children into wells. The same bandera that they still love. Neither ukraine or russia has ever done anything mariginally decent towards poles. If i was polish id sit this one out and hope they end eachother. Imagine writing 500 word essays daily for a people that buried 100k of your people alive. y'all are nuts.

The russian gifted your cities to the ukranians, lviv/lutsk belongs to poland. If you weren't subhumans instead of sucking ukr dick you would let them fight it out them take back your land when both are weak.

This post was edited by ownyaah on Oct 2 2022 01:54pm
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Oct 2 2022 01:54pm
Quote (babun1024 @ 2 Oct 2022 19:25)
I've finally got some time. Let's dissect what I by a "beggar nation" meant. Have a look how much every country benefits from EU etat:
https://i.ibb.co/tKWsjHR/eu-etat.png
Nothing has changed up until today with the difference that Germany, France and Italy pay the part UK doesn't anymore. After 20 years of being in EU, getting funding, money and everything to allow business on your ground your country asks for the most amount of EU funds every year.


According to this chart, Belgium, Greece and Hungary get more money, yet they are only 30 million people, while we are 37mln people. So per capita they are bigger receivers. Didnt check other countries, but will probably find some more per capita.
Also 13bln eur per year is a lot, but not really absurdly high, as Poland spends 200bln eur every year. So its something like 6%. And we all know its going to get smaller soon.

Quote (babun1024 @ 2 Oct 2022 19:25)

What is your gouverment's solution?

Source:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-14/why-poland-s-demanding-1-3-trillion-euros-in-war-reparations-from-germany

That's not a joke party like AFD in Germany. The actual ruling party in Poland asks for that. More than 50% of Poles elected that gouvernment. It's YOUR gouvernment. You're officially, a nation of beggars then in my eyes. The best solution to generate more money isn't attracting business or help statups thrive but this.

1) PiS get 38% votes in elections. Some of the opposition parties didnt reach the 8% threshold required to get into parliament, so their votes were nulled. Also in our voting rules, party with best score gets the "winner bonus". Not sure if its the same in Germany but this is quite common around the world.
2) Technically when you ask somebody to "repair damages" its not "begging". For example: Somebody damaged your car, you call the police, you sue him, the judge says he needs to repay you certain amount.
So you shouldnt call us beggars, lol.

Quote (babun1024 @ 2 Oct 2022 19:25)

Back to PiS, members of that party are Apparatchiks who were forced to suck Russian d*** for a long time:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apparatchik
They know how to "fake" a democracy, be corrupt, steal EU money then act as if everything would be alright. They're no better than Putin people suppressing people in Russia. You, your people let them make Poland authoritarian by bypassing judicative. The ruling party can pass any law without being afraid for being called unconstitutional. You said German judges are influenced the same which isn't true. We have a got a separate branch called "Bundesverfassungsgericht". Those judge's sole purpose is to see whether a verdict or a law is conforme with the constitution. An organ called "Verfassungsschutz" is there soleily to monitor whether Bundesverfassungsgericht is influenced in any way. To give you an example, protesters in the other thread in US who tried to make judge lives' hard by disturbing them during daily life would've been arrested without question for obstruction of the judicative. Your country is most similar to an ex east block country from USSR times than any eastern European EU member. Did you like Russian cock sucking so much during occupation? If not, why do you insist electing people who helped them suppress your people?

We want our neighbours to be ruled by a democratic rule in a democratic republic because we know if shit goes down the drain we'd also be in trouble.

Wrong again.
Our current leader, Kaczynski, was one of few highest brains behind the antirussian opposition. Walesa was the frontline leader, but he was just a good guy to speak to the crowds of people like him, workers. Kaczynski was the real brain.
Our current PM is a son of one of antirussian opposition leaders, who was imprisoned for years.
Our president was a kid 30 years ago :)
PiS is a branch of solidarity, antirussian opposition.
I already told you that polish judicial rules were changed to be similar to germany ones. Its correct that politicians have now some limited impact on judicial, which they didnt have in the past, but it aint big, and its to make necessary progress in the area.
People were really angry about judges "giving back" newly builded buildings in Warsaw to people who claim to be land owners 100 years ago. PiS scored some points on dealing with it, even if it meant touching the judicial.
Nothing to panic about.
I kind of like USA rules about consitutional courts: there you get elected for life. In Poland the term is 9 years, which means that party could gain majority there in just 3 years, if its lucky, or something like 5 years, if its not.
It was wrong imo, but what can I do? these 9 years were the rules when we entered EU, you guys could have tell us "its wrong, make it lifetime".
Look what happened in USA. Such a great country, yet they elected Trump, which is basically PiS, except that republican party was slowing him down.

Quote (babun1024 @ 2 Oct 2022 19:25)

We want you to become first class citizens that's why our, French and Italian companies heavily invest in Poland while your "friend" Great Britain doesn't do so and even made Brexit partially because Brits were fed up with Polish immigration (just type in google "Polish immigrant Brexit", you'd wonder).

Well, nobody treats us as equal to them in Europe. like your posts calling us "beggars" without apparent reason. We are honest workers and people, not beggars god damnit.
It seems we are victims to racism, even more than black people because people often dont criticise black people because dont want to be/look racist.

Quote (babun1024 @ 2 Oct 2022 19:25)

Your youth doesn't fight high percentage of unemployment like Spain during its crisis partially because they can work in Germany and elsewhere then come back.

I think its more because we:
1) used to earn less than spanish
2) dont have Euro, our currency got cheaper so our products became cheaper, while the spanish didnt.

Spanish people make much money from tourism, have a rich Catalonia region, and they could also go work somewhere else.

Quote (babun1024 @ 2 Oct 2022 19:25)

All those rules are reasonable. Poland was a shithole run down by USSR 20 years ago. You came a long way. Where do you think did the money come from? Ask your grandpa/ grandma how they were living 20 years ago compared to today.

Communism fallen 33 years ago, not 20. It took us like 13 years to get accepted into EU, and to get ready with our laws and people.
The rules are not really always reasonable. Like we are working heavy to fight global warming in EU, while the rest of the world doesnt give a fuck and just enjoy life :(
If we didnt close the coal mines, we wouldnt have had energy problem this year in Poland, we were self dependant :(
I just really hope there will be a happy end to all of it, and we wont see a constant rise in prices, because of constant co2 reductions.

Quote (babun1024 @ 2 Oct 2022 19:25)

Nope, I have to convey you unpoplar truth. Estonia and Estland made gigantic progress even though they joined the union much later. Strangely enough, they don't have a democracy problem or excessive costs implementing EU rule. From the POV of market economy, you don't mention how much money the EU saves your government and us all in general by solving administration in common grounds. GB is slowly experiencing the costs of all of those institution paid by a single country. Their prices are going to skyrocket even more during the next few years.


We dont really have democracy problem over here, we are having elections next year, it will be fair elections.
Public TV will be helping current party, but private TV are generally pro-opposition, one is openly anti-government, another one tries to be neutral but rather tends pro opposition. so it looks like even elections to me.
If the situation in Poland was bad, than the EU would cut the money, just as they do to Hungary now.

Quote (babun1024 @ 2 Oct 2022 19:25)

The last bit about the lack of knowledge in Poland. The industrial heart of Europe is located between south Germany, western France, Northern Italy and Swiss. 99% products related to high level production and chemical industry are located there. Italy's problem is more its industry in Lombardy region than some immigration problem in south were the productivity is near zero. South Italy is to Northern Italians the same as Poland to EU with the difference Poland has got an actual potential to become a net contributer sometimes in the future. Lots of German companies create supplier companies in Poland for gear parts and more. The highest paying EU members who keep the union afloat are:
Germany
France
Italy
In that order. The others are far behind in contribution. Sweden populace pays the highest EU membership fees per capita. Those regions I mentioned stopped production as of now because their products aren't competitive price wise. Energy costs are driving production costs too high to be rentable. If those regions continue to be closed due to lack of gas and high electricity costs, then all of the EU is going to be in a recession. Poland which doesn't contribute anyways would be screwed even more. See where I come from? It's not Germany's problem alone, all of the EU is going to go down the drain.


Please see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Banana

I know its not a Germany problem only. But one of the reasons is that EU shut up or doesnt build Nuclear Plants. Another one: we shut up coal in EU. Instead we relied on unreliable russian gas, and subject to russian sabbotage. It was 3 wrong decisions it seems.
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Oct 2 2022 02:20pm
briefly:

There is a global superpower, that has bombed i dont know how many countries in the last 50 years. does that make most of their people bad guys too? I would never say that, because its racist and completely misguided.
Racism, Stealing, Invading, Immigration, are all different words which mean different things. you cant argue 1 of them by arguing about another of them.

If poland invaded X country, does that make the average pole a bad guy? No.

This post was edited by ferdia on Oct 2 2022 02:25pm
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Oct 2 2022 02:26pm
Quote (ferdia @ 3 Oct 2022 04:20)
briefly:

There is a global superpower, that has bombed i dont know how many countries in the last 50 years. does that make most of their people bad guys too?
Racism, Stealing, Invading, Immigration, are all different things. you cant argue 1 of them by arguing about another of them.


Completely agree, just because a government is bad, it doesn't mean their citizens are.
One should never make a blanket statement equating their government to their common folks.
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Oct 2 2022 02:45pm
Quote (ownyaah @ 2 Oct 2022 21:45)
I dont know why poles are so emotional about ukraine. Not long ago ukranians were putting your village children into wells. The same bandera that they still love. Neither ukraine or russia has ever done anything mariginally decent towards poles. If i was polish id sit this one out and hope they end eachother. Imagine writing 500 word essays daily for a people that buried 100k of your people alive. y'all are nuts.

The russian gifted your cities to the ukranians, lviv/lutsk belongs to poland. If you weren't subhumans instead of sucking ukr dick you would let them fight it out them take back your land when both are weak.


There are no polish citizens now in lviv/lutsk. They moved right after the war. Its 80 years since WW2. Nobody alive even remembers anything about these cities being polish. Idea of taking these ukrainian cities to Poland is crazy. World War 2 was tragic, and now you say: "hey, why dont you guys have another round of war"?
lol, Im truly surprised, didnt expect anybody coming up with such an idea :)
Also they werent really truly polish cities, although we considered Lviv to be the most beatiful city in our country before the war. Both polish and ukrainian people used to live there, with a majority of ukrainians back then (if I remember correctly, too lazy to check lol).
We were occupying part of Ukraine before the war. Its true we didnt really have that bad intentions as russians with the great hunger they imposed, and we just wanted to build a single big country that could stand russian invasion, but I imagine for Ukrainians we werent better than Russians, as they wanted to run their own country, and we didnt want to grant them independence.

Im aware Ukrainian people aint perfect. There was a lot of corruption in their country, and plentiful russian agents were making troubles and spreading false propaganda in various areas of the country.
But a mutual enemy brings people together.
We are aware that we are one the next targets on the Putin list, so while we cant get directly involved because Ukraine isnt in NATO, we keep our fingers crossed for Ukraine :)
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Oct 2 2022 02:59pm
Quote (ferdia @ 2 Oct 2022 22:20)
briefly:

There is a global superpower, that has bombed i dont know how many countries in the last 50 years. does that make most of their people bad guys too? I would never say that, because its racist and completely misguided.
Racism, Stealing, Invading, Immigration, are all different words which mean different things. you cant argue 1 of them by arguing about another of them.

If poland invaded X country, does that make the average pole a bad guy? No.


If the average Poles people truly supported invasion, and they were glad that their soldiers bring various stolen equipment home, and they were dreaming of "great Poland taking the whole Europe for ourselves because we deserve it" than yes, that would make average pole a bad guy.

I can imagine Russia attacking Ukraine even without their citizens support of that actions, and that would made a kind of different story, but they do have support for the war amongst average russians. Not so much support for forced mobilization though, as Russians like the offensive war, unless its them who are sent to war.

Chillout note, please see the proposed map of polish country in the world. Red one is Poland ;)
http://www.wielkarzeczpospolita.net/img/mapa_big.jpg
of course this is just a joke somebody made on the internet, dont take it seriously, lol
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Oct 2 2022 03:22pm
Quote (ownyaah @ 2 Oct 2022 21:36)
1.5-2x is probably correct. Any higher is fantasy.

Not that kill/death ratio matters (historically)

UKR pushing currently, but this equation will be tilted and grinded to a halt once the 300k get into action. The russians have 3 choices really:

1: Leave and go home
2: Entry of the 300k, grind to a halt and go into bloodbath attrition mode (possibily a deal). If not a deal, this is the worst scenario which will cause most bloodshed on both sides.
3: Call in 1 million, push and end this before winter ends. Actual war, destroy all infrastructure, electricity/trains/gas/water etc

Personally i think it will be option 2 because putin is a pussy


How do you train and equip 1 million soldiers? Especially since you have already deployed 80% of your troops to war?
Not to mention the logistics required to give them some food and shelter.
You know its not really World War times any longer. Russians wont really accept 500k dead people.
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Oct 2 2022 04:12pm
Quote (Ironfister @ Oct 2 2022 10:22pm)
How do you train and equip 1 million soldiers? Especially since you have already deployed 80% of your troops to war?
Not to mention the logistics required to give them some food and shelter.
You know its not really World War times any longer. Russians wont really accept 500k dead people.


It takes roughly 15-20 people to service someone on the front line when they are on the offensive and the recipricol when they are defending. The whole concept is madness. I suppose everyone is waiting to see what Putin does whilst Ukraine keep on liberating. I don't think Ukraine will stop until they have the Crimea back.
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