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Norlander
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Feb 21 2024 03:58am
Quote (ferdia @ 21 Feb 2024 11:55)
There are several things here, so I will ask the first question and will see where we go from there - i.e. :

1. If the plan is to supply Ukraine...to enable them to hold roughly their current territory, then why did they not agree to the peace deal last year, or destroy this years talks of peace? I can only assume that when you refer to retaining their sovereignty you mean reclaim crimea and the donbass? can you clarfiy?

anyway, im going to watch a few hundred video's from Zelensky to try to understand him a bit better.


Malopox
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Feb 21 2024 04:20am
Quote (ferdia @ 21 Feb 2024 09:55)
There are several things here, so I will ask the first question and will see where we go from there - i.e. :

1. If the plan is to supply Ukraine...to enable them to hold roughly their current territory, then why did they not agree to the peace deal last year, or destroy this years talks of peace? I can only assume that when you refer to retaining their sovereignty you mean reclaim crimea and the donbass? can you clarfiy?

anyway, im going to watch a few hundred video's from Zelensky to try to understand him a bit better.


A country that relies on foreign military and economic aid to continue functioning normally is not sovereign by definition. Ukraine has lost its sovereignty for the foreseeable future.
ferdia
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Feb 21 2024 04:40am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 21 2024 01:08am)
A lot of opportunity has already been squandered. Had the West not been as reluctant with supplying heavy weapons, Ukraine could have driven Russia out of much more occupied territory back when Russia was in disarray in the fall of 2022. By giving Russia enough time to dig in and fortify their positions, the spring 2023 counteroffensive was doomed from the get go.

Anyway, to answer your question: imho, the plan is to supply Ukraine with enough weapons to enable them to hold roughly their current territory and ultimately retain their sovereignty. At the end of the day, Russia has taken just 2 cities over the past 20 months, one of them in a nearly indefensible position, both of them only after months-long fighting and suffering huge losses. And in both cases, it was a static fight in which Russia could concentrate its artillery fire and air support on a narrow battlefield, maximizing their advantage. But to go further from here, they'd need to capture and hold wide open territory.

The prevailing sentiment in this thread seems to be that Russia will steamroll Ukraine from here on out, but as long as Western support for Ukraine doesn't dry up entirely, this is absolutely NOT a given. Possible, yes, but far from inevitable.

One more thing to keep in mind: Ukraine will not be the only party suffering from attrition and war fatigue - it will affect Russian society too. Maybe not to the exact same degree, but still. So now that Russia got the things they wanted the most out of this war, will they really be able to keep up the same fighting spirit, the same willingness to invest a ton of resources and lives into further conquests?




this is an old video but to me it encapsulates Ukraine's objectives, to reclaim all land lost since the start of the war (and presumably Crimea as well). I have seen no evidence to suggest the plan has changed.
Gala
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Feb 21 2024 05:02am
Quote (ferdia @ Feb 21 2024 11:40am)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-kM4DCmFoY

Ukraine's objectives, to reclaim all land lost since the start of the war (and presumably Crimea as well). I have seen no evidence to suggest the plan has changed.


The question is if the Ukranian population still aligns with those goals. Zelenskyy himself cannot be faltering in his objectives or otherwise, his credibility would be at stake.
It remains to be seen how the elections will turn out this year in Ukraine. Anything else than a decisive approval for Zelenskyy would give Russia the affirmation that they are on the right track to win the war of attrition.


I'm also curios if Zaluzhnyi will run for the presidential office. He supposedly is a popular figure in Ukraine.

Speaking about the Western support the countries have proclaimed that they would support Ukraine till they win whereas winning is a term not frequently used anymore.
And hardly anyone in Europe is willing to do their part with the countries adjacent to Ukraine carrying the heaviest load.
And what the supporters say contrasts their actions. It was pretty obvious that they could not supply Ukraine with sufficient material, even NATOs own stocks are depleted and in a war scenario they would only last a couple of hours.
Malopox
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Feb 21 2024 05:15am
Quote (Gala @ 21 Feb 2024 12:02)
The question is if the Ukranian population still aligns with those goals. Zelenskyy himself cannot be faltering in his objectives or otherwise, his credibility would be at stake.
It remains to be seen how the elections will turn out this year in Ukraine. Anything else than a decisive approval for Zelenskyy would give Russia the affirmation that they are on the right track to win the war of attrition.


I'm also curios if Zaluzhnyi will run for the presidential office. He supposedly is a popular figure in Ukraine.

Speaking about the Western support the countries have proclaimed that they would support Ukraine till they win whereas winning is a term not frequently used anymore.
And hardly anyone in Europe is willing to do their part with the countries adjacent to Ukraine carrying the heaviest load.
And what the supporters say contrasts their actions. It was pretty obvious that they could not supply Ukraine with sufficient material, even NATOs own stocks are depleted and in a war scenario they would only last a couple of hours.


There will be no elections in Ukraine until martial law is lifted. Zelensky is here to stay until the end.

This post was edited by Malopox on Feb 21 2024 05:22am
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