Quote (thesnipa @ 21 Apr 2021 22:30)
my point tho was FL had higher turnout, and it didnt help democrats. they even had felons voting and didnt win.
That's an incorrect conclusion. The higher turnout most definitely helped them in Florida (although not by much in the case of FL), but it was offset by an unrelated factor (Cubans coming back home to the GOP).
In 2016, Trump won Florida by 120k votes. In 2020, he won it by 370k. In 2016, Hillary got a margin of 290k out of Miami-Dade alone, in 2020, Biden only got a margin of 80k out of it.
So this one county alone accounts for 210k out of the 250k swing toward Trump. Once we factor in the Cubans living in other counties of Florida than Miami-Dade, this should pretty neatly explain all of the swing toward the GOP in 2020.
This is of course not exact science, but without the Cuban factor, Trump would have won Florida by just about the same 120k votes as in 2016, which would have been a smaller margin percentage-wise due to the significantly higher turnout.