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Oct 30 2020 12:53pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 03:53am)
DC statehood is polling quite badly among the rest of the country though. There's no chance to spin this any other way than what it really is: a power grab by the Democratic party which is intended to give them 2 safe Senate seats, and Congressional representation to the residents of DC - in this order.


i'd still rather 2 perpetual DNC senators to 5 new scotus judges.
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Oct 30 2020 01:42pm
Quote (thesnipa @ 30 Oct 2020 19:53)
i'd still rather 2 perpetual DNC senators to 5 new scotus judges.


I wouldnt. Republicans could easily retaliate by adding 5 new judges of their own once they get back in control - which they will. It would just lead to a bloated SCOTUS with 45 judges by 2032 or so...
By contrast, there is no obvious response or counterplay for Republicans against DC statehood.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 30 2020 01:42pm
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Oct 30 2020 01:45pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 02:42pm)
I wouldnt. Republicans could easily retaliate by adding 5 new judges of their own once they get back in control - which they will. It would just lead to a bloated SCOTUS with 45 judges by 2032 or so...
By contrast, there is no obvious response for Republicans against DC statehood.


They don't really need a response honestly. DC statehood isn't going to significantly swing the balance of power. When Republicans have taken over the senate they've taken over by a greater margin than 2. There's only been 2 congresses that would have resulted in a different distribution of power since the 1960's. 01-03 and 07-09.

Honestly it would bring the senate into greater balance. Right now Republicans are really over-represented in the senate due to underpopulated rural states.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Oct 30 2020 01:46pm
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Oct 30 2020 01:45pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 02:42pm)
I wouldnt. Republicans could easily retaliate by adding 5 new judges of their own once they get back in control - which they will. It would just lead to a bloated SCOTUS with 45 judges by 2032 or so...
By contrast, there is no obvious response or counterplay for Republicans against DC statehood.


and how exactly is rapid escalation of the entire Judiciary better than a few extra senatorial votes?

i posted pages ago how 2 extra DNC senators would have affected the last few senates going back about a decade or more. it put one massive majority into a super majority, every other senate wouldnt have gone super. it wouldnt in reality change that much, and many GOP controlled senates would still have been GOP controlled.
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Oct 30 2020 01:51pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 11:15am)
We're currently living in a D+8 or so environment coupled with hyperpartisanship. Most issues fal roughly 52-44 in favor of the Democratic position.
Those poll numbers show that DC statehood is still rather unpopular, and only propped up by hyperpartisanship and fresh outrage over ACB's appointment to the SCOTUS. Those 48-52 (-4) numbers are probably the high water mark on this issue. I expect it to poll at -10 or worse by the time it actually comes up.

You're right though that right after the election would be the best time for Dems to push it through.


Well these were back in June so they don't take RGB's death into account. I imagine that there will be high-ish levels of support among Democrats (~60%) for the next year and that might be enough to get it passed. I think they'd have to do this with part of a Voting Rights package to make it seem less partisan. I imagine Fox will freak the fuck out and MSNBC will play coy but it will need to be done quickly.
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 11:37am)
Why the fuck would Republican governors play along with these shenanigans? Particularly after Trump has (in this scenario) just been proven to be a drag for his party...

The much more realistic kind of shenanigans lie in the courts, where Trump could try to let large swaths of mail ballots be thrown out. Say Trump overperforms his polls by 2%, thus wins FL, GA, NC, OH and IO. The election comes down to AZ and PA, where he trails by roughly 2-3% instead of the 4-5% that polls had predicted, with 40-60% of the entire vote coming from mail ballots which break two to one in Biden's favor. So it would only take about 20% of mail ballots being thrown out to hand the election to Trump. (And set the entire country on fire, let's be real...)


More likely is the scenario where Biden wins by 8+ nationally and by 5+ in PA, such that stealing the election via shenanigans is out of reach.


I've asked myself this regarding a lot of things that Trump has done. The GOP seems completely impotent to stand up to him. I doubt that it'll happen but never underestimate the cowardice of the GOP.

Quote (Thor123422 @ Oct 30 2020 11:22am)
Depending on how messy Trump wants to make it we could end up in a lot of reform happening very quickly.

If the Dems win a majority in both houses and Trump tries to take the presidency by forcing changes in electors at the state level regardless of election results (like he's currently looking at in PA) and other shenanigans there's gonna be a ton of political will to reform the electoral college system to prevent future shenanigans.

Can you imagine if Trump loses the popular vote by 10% or more, then goes to 3 or 4 states, gets their governors to remove and appoint Republican electors, and takes the white house again? There would be legitimate blood in the streets and he might end up the first president ever actually removed from office by Congress.

This is the kind of scenario that scares me, where Trump makes a blatant power grab that is only barely legal and riles up his supporters along the way.

That's a red line for me to leave this country because it wouldn't be worth saving at that point. I REALLY doubt that it'll happen though because A LOT of people would die.

This post was edited by thundercock on Oct 30 2020 01:51pm
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Oct 30 2020 02:11pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ 30 Oct 2020 20:45)
They don't really need a response honestly. DC statehood isn't going to significantly swing the balance of power. When Republicans have taken over the senate they've taken over by a greater margin than 2. There's only been 2 congresses that would have resulted in a different distribution of power since the 1960's. 01-03 and 07-09.


Quote (thesnipa @ 30 Oct 2020 20:45)
i posted pages ago how 2 extra DNC senators would have affected the last few senates going back about a decade or more. it put one massive majority into a super majority, every other senate wouldnt have gone super. it wouldnt in reality change that much, and many GOP controlled senates would still have been GOP controlled.


Uh, excuse me, do you not remember the time GOP senate from 2017-2019? The one where attempts at an Obamacare repeal came down to one vote - McCain's thumbs down? The one where Kavanaugh's confirmation hinged on one vote? The one where the Trump tax cuts bill passed 51-49? The one where several of Trump's cabinet nominations and lots of nominations for the federal judiciary passed by a margin of two or fewer votes?

Pretty much everything the congressional GOP did during Trump's first 2 years in office would not have been possible with 2 extra Democratic senators. Likewise, the GOP currently has a decent chance at preventing a Democratic trifecta - with 2 extra Dem seats, they wouldnt.


I think you two severely underestimate the importance of those two Senate seats, particularly in a post-filibuster era.

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Oct 30 2020 02:15pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 03:11pm)
Uh, excuse me, do you not remember the time GOP senate from 2017-2019? The one where attempts at an Obamacare repeal came down to one vote - McCain's thumbs down? The one where Kavanaugh's confirmation hinged on one vote? The one where the Trump tax cuts bill passed 51-49? The one where several of Trump's cabinet nominations and lots of nominations for the federal judiciary passed by a margin of two or fewer votes?

Pretty much everything the congressional GOP did during Trump's first 2 years in office would not have been possible with 2 extra Democratic senators. Likewise, the GOP currently has a decent chance at preventing a Democratic trifecta - with 2 extra Dem seats, they wouldnt.

I think you two severely underestimate the importance of those two Senate seats, particularly in a post-filibuster era.


All of that sounds pretty good, not just from a partisan "I like my side" but from a "we will have to actually do a minimal amount of reaching across the aisle to get our job done".

The GOP from 2008 to 2016 opposed everything no matter what on the basis that Democrats wanted it. Then they expected to not get the same treatment.
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Oct 30 2020 02:16pm
Quote (thundercock @ 30 Oct 2020 20:51)
I've asked myself this regarding a lot of things that Trump has done. The GOP seems completely impotent to stand up to him. I doubt that it'll happen but never underestimate the cowardice of the GOP.


But that was only because Trump was still the incumbent president and de facto leader of the party. Until now, Trump was always the one holding power over those governors, senators and congressmen. But in the scenario Thor described, it is these governors who would hold the power to get rid of Trump. What would he do if they refuse to follow his wildly undemocratic and probably unconstitutional ideas? Rail on twitter, and not much else!

Also... if Trump loses the popular vote by 10%, his spell would be broken, his mystique shattered. He'd be a SAD! loser. I dont think that his entire base would stick by him in such a situation and really be fine with stealing an election which was clearly and undoubtedly lost. Let alone the ~15% of the electorate that is gonna vote for him, but not part of his core base or cult.
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Oct 30 2020 02:28pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 03:11pm)
Uh, excuse me, do you not remember the time GOP senate from 2017-2019? The one where attempts at an Obamacare repeal came down to one vote - McCain's thumbs down? The one where Kavanaugh's confirmation hinged on one vote? The one where the Trump tax cuts bill passed 51-49? The one where several of Trump's cabinet nominations and lots of nominations for the federal judiciary passed by a margin of two or fewer votes?

Pretty much everything the congressional GOP did during Trump's first 2 years in office would not have been possible with 2 extra Democratic senators. Likewise, the GOP currently has a decent chance at preventing a Democratic trifecta - with 2 extra Dem seats, they wouldnt.


I think you two severely underestimate the importance of those two Senate seats, particularly in a post-filibuster era.


no, im not saying they're unimportant, i dont want DC as a state for the very reason that they are important.

im just saying i'd rather an imbalanced senate to a destroyed SCOTUS.

and as i said earlier, if DC was voted as a state and got 2 senators, the GOP would run commercials nationwide about how the DNC grabbed power of the senate nefariously and they'd win back seats in contested divisions, and eventually a new balance would reach equilibrium. the rhetoric that 2 DNC DC senators forever ruins the balance of the senate is stupid, it changes the status quo which changes the future status quo.
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Oct 30 2020 04:28pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 01:16pm)
But that was only because Trump was still the incumbent president and de facto leader of the party. Until now, Trump was always the one holding power over those governors, senators and congressmen. But in the scenario Thor described, it is these governors who would hold the power to get rid of Trump. What would he do if they refuse to follow his wildly undemocratic and probably unconstitutional ideas? Rail on twitter, and not much else!

Also... if Trump loses the popular vote by 10%, his spell would be broken, his mystique shattered. He'd be a SAD! loser. I dont think that his entire base would stick by him in such a situation and really be fine with stealing an election which was clearly and undoubtedly lost. Let alone the ~15% of the electorate that is gonna vote for him, but not part of his core base or cult.


If Trump loses by 10 points, the GOP is at a crossroads. They might chalk it up as bad luck due to COVID. They might chalk it up to the media being unfair (seeds planted already due to Hunter Biden coverage). Or, they could look at themselves in the mirror and do an actual deep dive on the future of the party. There's a very real chance that they continue down the path of Trumpism. I'm not convinced his supporters will abandon him given that they are still defending him NOW.
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