Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 11:15am)
We're currently living in a D+8 or so environment coupled with hyperpartisanship. Most issues fal roughly 52-44 in favor of the Democratic position.
Those poll numbers show that DC statehood is still rather unpopular, and only propped up by hyperpartisanship and fresh outrage over ACB's appointment to the SCOTUS. Those 48-52 (-4) numbers are probably the high water mark on this issue. I expect it to poll at -10 or worse by the time it actually comes up.
You're right though that right after the election would be the best time for Dems to push it through.
Well these were back in June so they don't take RGB's death into account. I imagine that there will be high-ish levels of support among Democrats (~60%) for the next year and that might be enough to get it passed. I think they'd have to do this with part of a Voting Rights package to make it seem less partisan. I imagine Fox will freak the fuck out and MSNBC will play coy but it will need to be done quickly.
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 11:37am)
Why the fuck would Republican governors play along with these shenanigans? Particularly after Trump has (in this scenario) just been proven to be a drag for his party...
The much more realistic kind of shenanigans lie in the courts, where Trump could try to let large swaths of mail ballots be thrown out. Say Trump overperforms his polls by 2%, thus wins FL, GA, NC, OH and IO. The election comes down to AZ and PA, where he trails by roughly 2-3% instead of the 4-5% that polls had predicted, with 40-60% of the entire vote coming from mail ballots which break two to one in Biden's favor. So it would only take about 20% of mail ballots being thrown out to hand the election to Trump. (And set the entire country on fire, let's be real...)
More likely is the scenario where Biden wins by 8+ nationally and by 5+ in PA, such that stealing the election via shenanigans is out of reach.
I've asked myself this regarding a lot of things that Trump has done. The GOP seems completely impotent to stand up to him. I doubt that it'll happen but never underestimate the cowardice of the GOP.
Quote (Thor123422 @ Oct 30 2020 11:22am)
Depending on how messy Trump wants to make it we could end up in a lot of reform happening very quickly.
If the Dems win a majority in both houses and Trump tries to take the presidency by forcing changes in electors at the state level regardless of election results (like he's currently looking at in PA) and other shenanigans there's gonna be a ton of political will to reform the electoral college system to prevent future shenanigans.
Can you imagine if Trump loses the popular vote by 10% or more, then goes to 3 or 4 states, gets their governors to remove and appoint Republican electors, and takes the white house again? There would be legitimate blood in the streets and he might end up the first president ever actually removed from office by Congress.
This is the kind of scenario that scares me, where Trump makes a blatant power grab that is only barely legal and riles up his supporters along the way.
That's a red line for me to leave this country because it wouldn't be worth saving at that point. I REALLY doubt that it'll happen though because A LOT of people would die.
This post was edited by thundercock on Oct 30 2020 01:51pm