Merkel and her Christian Democrats were (slightly) more hawkish on Russia than our new chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democrats. We Germans are more hesitant to fully take sides in this conflict because we have far less economic interest in a Ukrainian EU membership than in trade with Russia, just like we have no real interest in admitting Ukraine to the NATO. On Ukraine, German and American interests simply diverge. This fact, rather than the energy dependence, is at the root of these disagreements.

Also note that Putin/Russia's state finances are completely dependent on the revenue from commodity sales to the West. The one time he tried to pivot to China, during the height of the sanctions in the wake of the annexation of Crimea, he got bend over backwards and Xi definitely used more than JustTheTip. Russia had to sign a long-term contract with China which stipulated such low prices that the Russians barely make any profit off of these exports. Russia simply cannot have any interest in cutting off gas shipment to the West, not even during times of war. Likewise, they cannot have any interest in Europe contemplating a reorientation of its energy mix, e.g. a shift to LNG. For all these reasons, I am not concerned with the Russians weaponizing our energy dependence. It is an attractive talking point, but doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

Putin is a ruthless and shrewd asshole, but he's not a fool. He will not commit medium-term economic suicide for short-term military gain.

Notably, America had the capacity to subsidize construction of LNG terminals and exports and sell at a loss and just absorb it because we have a robust economy, while like you say Russia is a petro-state. That means America had the economic leverage, even if it went as brazen as Berlin Airdrop 2.0. And it wasn't in our interests to see Russia implode either, nobody sane actually wants to topple Putin, it was an issue of playing the game to our advantage. Exploiting that leverage required will and competency, which Biden lacks. We just straight up said that Putin can have his pipeline, forget about LNG, take Ukraine, do whatever, go nuts. Putin is just capitalizing on America being asleep at the wheel. Biden will slap some meaningless sanctions on Russia while the gas flows unimpeded from Vyborg to Greifswald, he'll probably get on camera and shake his fist and give a sternly worded statement of concern as Russian troops 'liberate' Independence Square in Kyiv.

Ukraine going back to the Russian sphere of influence isn't bothersome, but Putin coming out in the end with uncontested long term energy leverage over Europe is a huge issue. It doesn't give him unlimited control or total leverage, its still a two-way relationship of necessity as Russia remains an export economy, but its a giant strategic gain on the geopolitical board.

I think it's silly to assume that Putin actually wants to annex the entire Ukraine. That would give him a hundreds of miles long border with NATO member Poland. Also, western Ukraine is underpopulated and deindustrialized anyway. Even the very fertile black soil in the region would require huge investment because Soviet era farming in the region was given up and the land has been neglected for decades.

Imho, he's just testing the West and trying to extort some concessions. The biggest Russian ambition I consider realistic is to annex the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine which would create a land connection to Crimea and its warm water ports.

I think there's a scenario where he's satisfied with restoring Ukraine to its pre-2014 status quo, swapping it back to a KBG FSB puppet from a CIA puppet from an FSB puppet all over again. He wouldn't need to annex Ukraine if he could just make it his vassal again. Taking the Donbass however is an immediate military possibility, so there's that. I think this has more to do with spheres of influence than formal absorption or alliances. I would gander that Russia is no more interested in taking the whole of Ukraine than America is in actually allying it into NATO.

i wonder why people still get so excited over this childish back and forth talk from the cold war era

just for the record: the dumbass western states are to blame for this ukraine mess, ukraine could still be whole without civil war and with the crimea

but we simply couldnt help ourselves and financed the insane maidan violence to overthrow a pro russian government a few months before the next election, only to get pro european oligarchs immediately attacking their own people in eastern ukraine, because they didnt agree with this

all of this could have been avoided

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-20-2022-231302138.html

The Nasdaq plummeted nearly 3%, clocking in its worst week since March 2020, while the S&P 500 and Dow accelerated losses. A day earlier, the Nasdaq Composite dropped more than 1%, adding to losses after sinking into a correction earlier this week. The Nasdaq has shed 12% for the year-to-date.


we were in the throes of full covid pandemic panic when the market was last falling like this. the covid pandemic brandon said he was going to “shut down”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60061473

even teh far left bbc can't explain much lmao

Kamala Harris one year: Where did it go wrong for her?

https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1484503546636742657?t=BdYe1mncJszN-TV9TXYJYQ&s=19

here is some actual leadership

encourages vaccines, is against mandates. a pro-science stance. wants businesses to continue with limited restrictions. is a proponent of personal choice.

a rare breath of fresh air. lefties want him to be more like the dim wits in charge of Cali and NY who have been major factors as to why covid cases are so much higher now than pre-brandon administration

just despicable the lefties and media said Desantis wasn’t working during mid December because he was helping his wife through her chemotherapy treatments for cancer. lefties and media really are anti-science anti-life net-negative to society groups

I could see desantis president