looks like 538 (nate silver’s site)

Different types of moving average and poll weighting most likely. RCP excludes some polls and 538 excludes others.

RCP is at 1.4
538 is at 3.9 (this is what I use)
Economist is at 3.6
Electoral Vote is at 3.x

Why do people care about national poll averages?

We have an electoral college system.

Because the state vote is correlated with the national vote to some degree. If there is a 3 point swing nationally, there's like a similar swing in PA.

https://news.yahoo.com/biden-campaign-under-fire-tv-200752577.html

C'mon Joe
At least when Trump astroturfs his Blacks for Trump messaging, he doesn't use people in blackface to do it.

Joe Biden's ad with a 'struggling bar owner' trying to make it by in the pandemic- with shots of his empty bar room- actually featured a wealthy tech investor who inherited a fortune from his grandfather and chose to keep his bar closed even after restrictions were lifted back in June. Because he can easily afford to do so, because he's not a struggling bar owner.

another pale pasty privileged lefty lying (D) pretending to slum it but still lives in the ivory tower. shocker!!

Basically he is an inheritor like Biden's rival in this election. For shame.

This post was edited by Skinned on Oct 21 2020 02:58pm

I think this election would have been much more of a nailbiter without COVID. I'd probably give Biden a 60% chance to win if that were the case but that's not much better than a coin flip. After the first debate, I was 100% confident that Biden would win.