Ok good. Entirely possible I overlooked something that was said. I'm jumping around between a few things.

I also believe ink isn't as detached from reality as he pretends to be.
He's acting as a far left provocateur and deliberately reframes topics in an absurdly partisan manner without regard for the truth.
Didnt he work for thinkprogress? (i forget exactly)
Its basically the same thing

https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/1311874895987519493

Ehh the evidence on pizzagate is very scant.

There is evidence that Democrats are afraid to arrest pedophiles from fear of blowback but pizzagate honestly sounds like something the left made up as bait.



Hes a skilled liar. Its terrible for political discourse to lie about big issues like race and corruption the same way Obama did.

This post was edited by EndlessSky on Oct 2 2020 09:49am

Today is the day of the VP debate so I want to get this in before polls take the results into consideration. It shouldn't matter too much since no one really cares about VP debates and there are more important events to care about. Anyway, Trump is fucked and there's almost no way he can win now. He had a horrible debate and then his stupid ass got COVID. Biden is now up by 9 points nationally which is basically Ronald Reagan vs. Jimmy Carter. National polls have NOT been kind to Trump lately and we're seeing double digit margins now (including a +16 CNN poll)

AK: Trump +4.9 (+0.4). There needs to be more polling here. This should be an easy win for Trump and Sullivan but things could get even worse! 538 chance to win: Trump 78% (-1%), Economist chance to win: Trump 89% (-3%).
AZ: Biden +4.4 (+0.9). It seems like older voters REALLY dislike Trump's COVID reaction. The trend isn't looking good and I expect this to go into +5% or higher. Kelly seems to have a double digit lead now. 538 chance to win: Biden 66% (+2%), Economist chance to win: Biden 68% (+6%).
FL: Biden +3.5 (+1.8). Similar to AZ, it seems like older voters are sick of Trump's COVID antics. 538 chance to win: Biden 66% (+8%), Economist chance to win: Biden 71% (+4%).
GA: Biden +0.9 (+2.0). Trump has been trending slightly lower over the past 3 weeks but Biden got a noticeable jump in the past week. I think Biden needs to be polling at least 3 points ahead in order to have a shot of winning this. 538 chance to win: Trump 55% (-9%), Economist chance to win: Trump 51% (-12%).
IA: Trump +1.1 (+0.3). Surprisingly little movement, even a little boost for Trump. Senate race is still dead even. Recently, a judge invalidated 100,000 absentee ballot requests. I'll leave it to you to decide who is correct: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/05/iowa-judge-blocks-secretary-state-invalidating-pre-filled-ballot-request-forms-2020-election/3630399001/ 538 chance to win: Trump 64% (+1%), Economist chance to win: Trump 63% (-4%).
ME-2: Biden +0.8 (-2.6). Trump got a really strong poll here to bring down the average. Again, this district is more of a bellwether than anything. If Biden wins this on election night, it's probably a guaranteed landslide. 538 chance to win: Trump 55% (+2%). Economist: N/A
MI: Biden +7.6 (+0.7). There was some news about the Michigan Supreme Court invalidating some of Whitmer's COVID orders. It will be interesting to see if that causes any polling movement. 538 chance to win: Biden 90% (+4%), Economist chance to win: Biden 92% (+4%).
MN: Biden +9.3 (+0.6). There hasn't been any reliable polling here since the debate but I imagine Trump is getting obliterated. 538 chance to win: Biden 90% (+2%), Economist chance to win: Biden 95% (+3%).
NE-2: Biden +6.4 (+1.0). This bellwether proves that Trump is going to be annihilated this election. 538 chance to win: Trump 71% (+5%). Economist: N/A
NV: Biden +6.8 (+0.4). Seems to be just noise in the polling. NY Times will release their poll in the morning. 538 chance to win: Biden 85% (+3%), Economist chance to win: Biden 88% (+3%).
NH: Biden +9.7 (+2.9). Got some high quality polling here caused a substantial jump for Biden. 538 chance to win: Biden 80% (+6%), Economist chance to win: Biden 91% (+5%).
NC: Biden +2.2 (+1.1). So there's some crazy shit going on here in the Senate race. Tillis is the GOP incumbent on the judiciary committee and he got COVID. That puts ACB's appointment in jeopardy. Cunningham, the challenger, got caught sexting a woman who is not his wife. So who the fuck knows what's going to happen in the end. 538 chance to win: Biden 58% (+4%), Economist chance to win: Biden 62% (+8%).
OH: Biden +0.5 (-0.5). Not much movement here due to a lack of polling. NY Times will release their poll in the morning so watch out for it. 538 chance to win: Biden 51% (-1%), Economist chance to win: Trump 59% (-3%).
PA: Biden +6.3 (+0.8). The race is becoming unwinnable for Trump at this point. Pat Toomey will retire in 2022 so we might see 2 Democratic senators in this state. 538 chance to win: Biden 82% (+3%), Economist chance to win: Biden 87% (+5%).
TX: Trump +1.7 (-0.2). We don't have any polling that show the effects of the most recent news developments. In addition, there appears to be a new lawsuit to challenge the governor's order: https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/519739-progressive-groups-file-second-lawsuit-to-stop-texas-policy-limiting 538 chance to win: Trump 71% (+0%), Economist chance to win: Trump 78% (-2%).
WI: Biden +7.0 (+0.5). So, this is the last of the rust belt that Trump MUST have. He's down by a significant margin here and there is no momentum going his way. 538 chance to win: Biden 83% (+2%), Economist chance to win: Biden 91% (+4%).

https://www.270towin.com/maps/nGdJx

Yeah, if his polls still look like this on election day, he's toast. Due to all the swaths of early voting, he might actually be toast even if there are positive stories or developments for him during the final 2-3 weeks of the race.

I still expect him to win Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa in the end. The big problem for Trump is that Arizona is looking quite bad, both in terms of polling and structurally, and that winning exactly one out of the Blue Wall states (WI/MI/PA) will not be enough for him if AZ falls. Even in the absolute best case scenario where AZ falls and he carries PA and NE-2, he'd still be short of 270 in the EC: https://www.270towin.com/maps/dpNo8 And even this scenario seems exceedingly unlikely at the moment.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 7 2020 01:53am

the VP debate will be incredibly interesting because last time around Pence did Trump a solid after the latter didn't do well in the first debate and all the damage from the access hollywood tape coordinated media release had really taken its toll. that said i expect Kamala to have a better debate strategy than Kaine but who knows.

as for some of the senate races:

collins is in a dead heat in ME, will be interesting to see what she does with the ACB confirmation and vote
lindsey is also in a dead heat in SC, that's what $80M of outside-state money will do for your opponent
cunningham in NC is an interesting development. the leaks keep coming, it wasn't just sexting - he had his mistress holed up for a week in his family's home over the summer. apparently his girlfriend (yes you read that right) wasn't thrilled that he had a mistress as well. oh and he was playing jody to the mistress, who is married to fellow military officer. no word on what his wife thinks about all this.

"Biden Even More Determined To Not Get COVID After Finding Out He Could Lose Sense Of Smell"

https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-even-more-determined-to-not-get-covid-after-finding-out-he-could-lose-sense-of-smell