Of course, P/E is a shitty way to value a high-growth company but forward-looking gives insight into the growth rate. The lower interest rates are the higher P/E ratios are, typically.

I view Tesla as an automotive manufacturer, SaaS, insurer, autonomous taxi, energy storage, and battery producer. All of which, vertically integrate into a massive corporation that will heavily compete and disrupt whatever industries they are in.

TSLA is a big question mark for me lol

I know I might miss out on a ton of gains, but at the same time I can't figure out if they will be the apple of car manufacturers, swiping huge market share with a more expensive product, an Amazon, where they supply everything but the kitchen sink to their competitors, or anything in between or none of those at all.

There's a lot of ways forward for TSLA to be an insanely huge company in 20 years, but I don't know in what fields or how their share price will reflect that with their massive current valuation.

You forgot about the x-factor of TSLA .... Elon fking Musk

He has the memes, but I don't think that'll hold the stock valuation for 5 more years. Eventually he'll be a boomer just like all of us will.

Aliens don't age, at least not in Earth terms.

Hopefully stimulus shows a green market Monday.

What's after that though. What's the forward looking market have to look at next to continue to stimulate markets and continue this upward trend? That's what I continue to ask myself. I can't be bothered with small daily fluctuations but what's the long run. I don't typically advocate holding cash and I personally don't but what does the market honestly have to look forward to. Any recovery must be priced in. Maybe we just see money move from tech to other industries?

Wall Street will have a big rotation back into technology quickly and many people who have sold out of techs are going to be left behind on that rebound. I truly believe inflation numbers are going to create fear, bonds will continue to sell-off causing rates to inch higher into the month of May. I personally believe August/September will be new ATHs.

Current/Future potential bull catalyst;
Federal Reserve reduces liquidity requirements on Bank by extending their capital reserve exemptions.
Inflation on long-term treasuries comes down and inflation fears are reduced. (Ignore YOY inflation growth you hear during April and May. April & May of 2020 had 0.3% and 0.1% of inflation, respectively. Whereas March of 2020 had 1.5% and June had 0.6%.)
The stimulus package is approved by House and Biden passes it this coming week.
Dips/corrections are short-lived and we should see a flattening beginning in April if this falls into the average.

Current/Future potential bear catalyst;
Liquidity remains low - tons of IPOs, SPACs, Cryptos, Stonks & NFTs are spreading money thin. Most retail investors who have been buying the dip are out of money or are very low based on forums I have read.
LT inflation continues to rise exceeding levels pre-covid & we see a continued correction in stock prices.
Any bad worldwide event, lol.

I wouldn't be surprised if Monday is a super green day and the rest of the month is better than last week (in regards to total % dips). Regardless, I'm buying and likely need to be more aggressive.

This post was edited by S3th on Mar 6 2021 06:36pm

We are about to see an explosion in earnings for most cyclical things. For a few reason really. Pent up demand,, the fact that our savings rate is very high & inflation are a few of the main ones. Even secular stocks like tech & growth will benefit because usually when the business cycle picks up companies start to invest in new software, new ERP systems, etc.

So if the e from p/e goes higher then the p/e is actually not going to be so egregiously high as many people think it is now. I think s/p 500 p/e will go sub 20, so in reality I really don’t think the market is as overpriced as people think if we exclude the likes of Tesla, Snowflake, crowdstrike and so on.

I also agree with your point on tech. Usually the pendulum swings too far and everyone is piling into energy, financials, industrials right now. I think the mega tech stocks msft, Apple, Google, FB are growing at such a high rate and they’re so hegemonic in their respective industries that people will quickly realize that these names deserve the high premium. To me all of the latter tech names I mentioned are a no brainer buy and hold right now considering they’ve been consolidating since August and are like 15% off their highs. I personally bought a bunch of FB and Apple this last month. You won’t get retard 50-100% gains going forward but 10-20% for the year? I think so.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 6 2021 08:53pm

Agreed