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Aug 12 2018 11:16am
Quote (fender @ 12 Aug 2018 16:05)
what study would you refer to that is not funded by any partisan group?

I dont know, and to be honest, I dont really care. But certainly not one funded by soros and antifa-activists.



Quote
do you think leave has a real majority amongst brits?


no. but I think that it's still fairly close, and that remain did make inroads, but didnt make inroads which are nearly as drastic as portrayed in your article and similar pieces of the anti-brexit-media. (which the Guardian is very much a part of...)

Quote
sounds a bit like ghot / endless talk: 'i don't like the findings, so i try to discredit the source as biased.'


the source IS biased in this case.


Quote (fender @ 12 Aug 2018 17:36)
if he pointed out specific things he took issue with (like for example biased phrasing, insufficient sample size, cherry picked participants...) i'd understand his reservations, but simply pointing to evil soros and 'obscure' market research groups without any ACTUAL arguments seems a bit lazy and simplistic to me, that's all...


um, I did actually point out a very specific flaw of the study: that it is based on survey data from june and july - and june and early july, before May revealed her Chequers plan, were the time when the confusion and chaos surrounding brexit was highest, which plausibly will affect the people's perception of and attitude towards the brexit process. this doesnt devalue the findings entirely, but it is a reason to expect a certain bias.

and the market research group responsible for this study is obscure. just google them, they havent done much, and if you visit their homepage, it gives the strong impression that their firm is an upstart.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 12 2018 11:18am
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Aug 12 2018 11:43am
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"Researchers at the Focaldata consumer analytics company compiled the breakdown by modelling two YouGov polls of more than 15,000 people in total, conducted before and after Theresa May published her proposed Brexit deal on 6 July. It combined the polling with detailed census information and data from the Office for National Statistics."


in general i'd support your reservation if you argued 'the study might not represent the exact percentages of today' since it relies on data that is IN PART more than one month old (shocking surprise, it takes some time to analyse, model, and publish such a study) - but you clearly imply they deliberately chose a specific timeframe in order to doctor the results, rather than analysing the latest available data, which i understand they did. i mean by that ridiculous standard you could argue that no study is ever representative...

seriously, i still think it's very much possible that this study might be biased, but your criticism of it (the soros / antifa fearmongering, backed only by an argument that doesn't even fully apply and is weak to begin with) is rather shallow and does NOT support that allegation.

This post was edited by fender on Aug 12 2018 11:48am
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Aug 12 2018 12:17pm
Quote (fender @ 12 Aug 2018 19:43)
in general i'd support your reservation if you argued 'the study might not represent the exact percentages of today' since it relies on data that is IN PART more than one month old (shocking surprise, it takes some time to analyse, model, and publish such a study) - but you clearly imply they deliberately chose a specific timeframe in order to doctor the results, rather than analysing the latest available data, which i understand they did. i mean by that ridiculous standard you could argue that no study is ever representative...

seriously, i still think it's very much possible that this study might be biased, but your criticism of it (the soros / antifa fearmongering, backed only by an argument that doesn't even fully apply and is weak to begin with) is rather shallow and does NOT support that allegation.


uh... just for the record: I did never say, and never meant, that they chose this specific timeframe with bad intentions. but this doesnt change the fact that polling data taken at a survey subject's low point will distort conclusions if you base your study mostly on this specific data.
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Aug 12 2018 12:56pm
https://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/

Voting Intention: Conservatives 39%, Labour 35% (8-9 August)

This is still 26% who dont know, theres no reason to lose time with all this, guys and girls.
People like boris jonhson are bitching arround while taking no reponsabilities.

May is a courageous woman, doesnt means her boat will not sink (which should be pityfull )
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Aug 12 2018 01:10pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Aug 12 2018 07:56pm)
https://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/

Voting Intention: Conservatives 39%, Labour 35% (8-9 August)

This is still 26% who dont know, theres no reason to lose time with all this, guys and girls.
People like boris jonhson are bitching arround while taking no reponsabilities.

May is a courageous woman, doesnt means her boat will not sink (which should be pityfull )


b..b..buut the tories are scared of Corbyn!

No wonder Scaly doesn't show his face in this topic anymore.
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Aug 12 2018 01:22pm
Quote (dro94 @ 12 Aug 2018 20:10)
b..b..buut the tories are scared of Corbyn!
No wonder Scaly doesn't show his face in this topic anymore.


They could if things are turning bad about this -fucking- Brexit, since they will take all the blame and that Corbyn is canalizing each drop of mistake against them.

Im suspecting UK people are backing your tories --yet-- like a people is backing its governement during a war or conflict, so it could swap really quickly, or not !
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Aug 12 2018 01:22pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 12 Aug 2018 19:17)
uh... just for the record: I did never say, and never meant, that they chose this specific timeframe with bad intentions. but this doesnt change the fact that polling data taken at a survey subject's low point will distort conclusions if you base your study mostly on this specific data.


when i mentioned that you only criticised the study based on its funding and not its methodology or any specifics, you replied by pointing out the timeframe, described it as 'flawed' and therefore justifying your expectation of 'bias'.
there is a difference between saying it's an unfortunate timeframe for those convinced it's actually more balanced, and calling it 'flawed', 'biased', and 'highly partisan' - and i'm rather confident that you are aware of that.

fair enough though, let's say this wasn't what you were implying, you can't be genuinely surprised it was understood this way - i'm sure if the study used similarly biased phrasing, you would have pointed that out as suggestive, and rightfully so.

so if you concede that the timeframe was not deliberately chosen with bad intentions, but merely concerns a time that was not exactly filled with positive news concerning the negotiations (which i totally agree with, that's a fair evaluation - then again, do you really think public support to leave has increased noticeably since then?) - where are your arguments supporting the 'biased' and 'highly partisan' nature of the study, which you insisted upon in more than one post?

This post was edited by fender on Aug 12 2018 01:23pm
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Aug 12 2018 01:26pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Aug 12 2018 08:22pm)
They could if things are turning bad about this -fucking- Brexit, since they will take all the blame and that Corbyn is canalizing each drop of mistake against them.

Im suspecting UK people are backing your tories --yet-- like a people is backing its governement during a war or conflict, so it could swap really quickly, or not !


'my' tories? I've never voted tory in my life...do not mistake my dislike of far left ideologues for support of the conservatives
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Aug 12 2018 01:44pm
Quote (dro94 @ Aug 12 2018 03:26pm)
'my' tories? I've never voted tory in my life...do not mistake my dislike of far left ideologues for support of the conservatives


Conservatives dont exist outside the US

Euro-aussies just have social conservatives
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Aug 12 2018 01:49pm
Quote (EndlessSky @ Aug 12 2018 08:44pm)
Conservatives dont exist outside the US

Euro-aussies just have social conservatives


UKIP on the other hand...
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