Quote (ferdia @ Sep 8 2025 06:22am)

sure here you go:

Early 2000s – 2013: Tensions and Political Alignments
After Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, it maintained a complex relationship with Russia. During the 2000s, the United States encouraged Ukraine to pursue closer ties with Europe and the West, while Russia sought to retain influence over the country. Political tensions often centered on energy dependence, trade, and the status of Crimea.

2013 – 2014: Euromaidan and Crimea Annexation
In late 2013, protests erupted in Kyiv, known as the Euromaidan movement, after President Yanukovych rejected a European Union association agreement in favor of closer ties with Russia. These protests received backing and support from the United States. Yanukovych fled Ukraine in February 2014, creating a shift in the country’s political orientation. Shortly afterward, Russia annexed Crimea, citing strategic concerns and the presence of foreign influence near its borders.

2014 – 2021: Donbas Conflict and Stalemate
Following Crimea’s annexation, armed conflict broke out in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists. The conflict caused significant casualties and damage to infrastructure. Ukrainian politicians frequently warned of the potential for a larger war with Russia. During this period, the United States provided financial and military assistance to Ukraine, including support for defense and security programs.

2021 – 2022: Build-Up to Full-Scale Invasion
After Germany’s Angela Merkel left office, the United States became more active in shaping the Ukraine-Russia situation. European countries played a more restrained role, while the U.S. increased its support for Ukraine and its engagement in the region. Diplomatic efforts to address security concerns, including Russia’s objections to NATO expansion, were unsuccessful. Tensions escalated, and in February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine.

2022 – Present: Escalating Full-Scale War
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, targeting multiple cities and infrastructure. Ukraine resisted, but the conflict escalated as Western countries, led by the United States, increased military support over time. Early aid included defensive equipment, later expanding to tanks and F-16 fighter jets. In the final months of President Biden’s term, the U.S. delivered long-range missile systems to Ukraine, a move widely seen as a major escalation and interpreted by Russia as a critical turning point. The war has caused extensive civilian casualties, displaced millions, and severely impacted the regional economy.

Forward Look: Likely Trajectories
As the conflict continues, Russia appears to hold significant advantages on the battlefield. Proposals to station Western troops in Ukraine face both practical and strategic limits: Western countries lack sufficient forces to deploy effectively, and any stationed troops would likely be seen by Russia as legitimate military targets.

Given the widening gap between Ukrainian and Russian positions, a negotiated peace appears increasingly unlikely. The most plausible outcomes involve continued military escalation, with Kyiv under extreme pressure. While Zelensky remains in office, there is no clear path to resolution other than the potential defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces. Russia now appears focused on achieving its objectives through battlefield gains rather than diplomacy, particularly given years of Western insistence on preventing a negotiated settlement.

TL;DR: Western powers are struggling to influence the conflict. The decisive factor now appears to be how much of Ukraine Russia intends to control, with the likelihood that continued Ukrainian resistance could prompt Russia to pursue even greater territorial gains.

Quote (ferdia @ 7 Sep 2025 16:02)

For some time now the United States has taken a more aggressive stance with its allies and enemies. It has continued to ratchet up the conflict in Ukraine with Tanks, F16's and Long Range Missiles. It threatened countries around China with Invasion if they leaned towards China and it is actively seeking to create a forward base using Australian Submarines. It turned an isolationist Russia, which was not relevant, into a problem. Not content with this, it decided to ratchet up its rhetoric with China and relations are only heading one way. Now in recent days it appears to have killed its relationship with India.

a little bit of diplomacy would go a long way around now, but sadly this is an art form the US and Europe are now lacking for some time.

Quote (duffman316 @ Sep 8 2025 09:11am)

"Escalation" is a weird word to use after a full scale invasion has begun. Putin doesn't recognize ukraines sovereignty and believes the whole of it should be part of russia again - a point our resident orc supporters are aligned with. What point is there in any "peace" when we know what putin wants? They will just rearm and launch another invasion in a few years

Quote (Goomshill @ Sep 8 2025 08:47pm)

Escalate is not at all a weird word after the start of a regional conflict, since over the past 300 years of history regional conflicts have repeatedly escalated into worldwide war.

There is a direct line from Prussia invading Austria's bountiful and rich Silesia region in 1740 under the pretext of Maria Theresa's succession to the Hapsburg throne after the death of Emperor Charles VI- to George Motherfucking Washington leading a Virginia militia with attached Mingo Warriors under Chief Tanacharison ambushing the French and killing Jumonville at his eponymous Glen in 1754. Some 3000 miles and 14 years removed.

Quote (ferdia @ Sep 7 2025 05:02pm)

For some time now the United States has taken a more aggressive stance with its allies and enemies. It has continued to ratchet up the conflict in Ukraine with Tanks, F16's and Long Range Missiles. It threatened countries around China with Invasion if they leaned towards China and it is actively seeking to create a forward base using Australian Submarines. It turned an isolationist Russia, which was not relevant, into a problem. Not content with this, it decided to ratchet up its rhetoric with China and relations are only heading one way. Now in recent days it appears to have killed its relationship with India.

a little bit of diplomacy would go a long way around now, but sadly this is an art form the US and Europe are now lacking for some time.

Quote (Norlander @ Sep 8 2025 09:00pm)

https://files.catbox.moe/cg3onb.mp4

Quote (Goomshill @ Sep 9 2025 07:16am)

Top EU officials are now openly saber rattling about sanctioning China for stepping up their Russian energy imports, and this week opening the Chinese bond market to Russian energy companies. Meanwhile the EU trade imbalance with China has doubled over the past 5 years. They have no intent to protect their local production just to try to harass China despite the reverse leverage. Very smart plan.