I think near term wars will be fought in smaller periphery states. The cold war model. Personally i see more flashpoints in places like Venezuela-neighbors, Cambodia-Thailand. Basically countries where the west and east are at frontiers of influence. India-Pakistan, both nuked armed isn't likely to spill into a bigger war because the stakes are too high.
India needs a ton of resources and i think they need and hope to look like the China of today. They like China have a ton of human capital, so how do they retain it? So many young Indians today are clawing to get into western countries. It's kind of annoying tbh to look around and see half the company being filled with Indians.
India is quite a complex country. They have a lot to do (and there is no evidence they are moving in the right direction) to propel their nation forward. They have a problem with the US Backed Terror state of Pakistan, They have cultural problems, as well as multiple issues in their national pillars - justice system etc, nevermind the severe wealth divide. They need to find a way to resolve these issues, if they can do that and have vision then they will have clear skies. I mean, they ARE doing well, but the notion that they will resolve their inherent issues within 2 decades does not (to me anyway) appear credible.
China is way further along. decades (and i dont mean just 2 decades).
Pakistan is FUBAR and not relevant, except that we can expect problems (civil war, terrorism etc) in the short-medium and long term. Don't listen to me, ask any Pakistani.
This post was edited by ferdia on Sep 2 2025 10:28am