thanks Djunior, I had in the back of my mind to hear the Russian view on this point, noting Kaja Kalas has a few crack brained ideas.
most of the money as i understand it is in Belgium
The added complexity:
1) big chunks of those assets (70bn+ reportedly out of 300bn) are retail investors money, not govt reserves. Theft of those is literally theft of private property. Currently there is no affordable mechanisms to prove you are not sanctioned for individual investors to have your savings returned to you. You literally need to sue Euroclear to have your savings released (50€K endeavour).
2) theft of those assets will forever destroy the image of European markets as “investable” for the global south (think BRICS+) who are already building up a bloc of their own. Why would China or Saudis buy German or French bonds ever again if they can just steal their money on a whim?
3) many of govt reserves are in form of German and French bonds. Stealing them and liquidating to finance the war will tank yields and will affect those govts ability to borrow. Unfortunately for them they are also these reserves are also quite long dated so it will take a long time for them to mature. Hence those wierd “borrowing against future cash flows from assets” facilities they are trying to set up.
4) if stolen Russia will reciprocate by stealing Euroclear reserves which might put Euroclear out of business and it will need to be bailed out as the amount of Euroclear assets frozen by Russia exceeds its equity.
Don’t quote me though, it’s all up in the air right now and quite fluid.
PS: fun fact, Zakharova is fluent in Chinese and lived in China for decades.
PSS: in my personal opinion, judging by the precedents of recent years, those assets are gone. Similar to Lybian reserves that were never returned using all kinds of legalese and tricks. Qadaffi was killed, country ravaged by a civil war between UN supported govt in Tripoli and Langley appointed warlord in Tobruk that went rogue. It all has now been written off and forgotten by majority of (un)educated public. Oh well. Sucks to sucks.
This post was edited by Malopox on Aug 31 2025 11:34pm