i think they'll toss out a round of missiles at "military targets", aka not Kiev, and that will be the only response. largely agree. but then he's still down in the win/loss for any negotiation, imo. so hard to predict.
I'm rooting for "shooting down a satellite"
nobody gets killed, everyone goes nuts, people doomsay over its effects on space exploration but it really won't matter much, and the US/EU are forced to engage with how they're supposed to react to the reaction