There is no credible effort for peace while the US and the EU continue to supply long range missiles to Ukraine, which they have now said may be used to strike deep into Russian territory. so ye, here we goooooooooooo

this and also

Most of what I've seen people express/opine reflects a general populace that is by and large devastatingly stupid but equally self-assured in their knowledge of Eastern European geopolitics, warfare and diplomacy - and my instinct tells me this is reflective of the general IQ operating the halls of power/public opinion in 2025. Even the ability to have leaders of men sit down, discuss the circumstances and trends as they are, and agree on reasonable concessions seems like an extinct skillset. Now in discussions about possible peace settlements, it's more about what Ukraine "deserves" or peoples' quasi pavlovian hatred of Trump + Russia (a pairing that rubes cannot decouple) and maintaining a sassy, marvelesque "resistance" to that. Idiocracy war - will never actually end because the human race is too degenerate

This post was edited by Thebarba on May 27 2025 10:01am

Is there some expectation that after a peace deal is reached (IF a deal is reached really) that Ukraine will disarm? or that Ukraine will not have long range missiles?

this logic seems to be the same as "you cant negotiate with guns pointed at each other".

is Russia halting their supplies to the front lines for negotiations? are they stopping producing shells and purchasing drones?

now do i think that missiles and resupplies of Ukraine make the negotiations easier? no. but impossible? that's silly.

imo neither side is too interested in negotiating now, because they're at a stalemate on the negotiations. Russia will want to keep Eastern territories, and they know this wont be acceptable to Ukraine. So why enter into a ceasefire to form an armistice when both sides know the basic terms of that armistice aren't possible to agree on? I dont think NATO is too interested in Ukraine membership, so that part of a deal is basically symbolic, NATO can proxy in weapons even without membership and they can place NATO troops in Ukraine post war. its really all about land at this point isnt it?

Disarm, no, but from Russia's POV they want to structure the agreement where this isn't just an underhand way for Ukraine to get a breather and get pumped full of weapons for round 2. It's a valid concern, that's why if you look at their asks one of them is they want a cap on Ukrainian military post peace, no NATO peacekeepers that in reality are just a large standing NATO army within Ukraine.

I don't think the expectation was that we would halt everything, but we're not just not halting we're upping the ante. Germany as of today 'lifts all restrictions on use of long term missiles into Russia'. Does this invite peace or is it like the 37th round of escalation we've seen for the last 3 years?

And we already know it's not 25 year old Ukrainians guiding and relaying target data for these type of strikes but western operators, because these are integrated systems and use satellite geolocating. So basically no limit on NATO operators striking within Russia. That's great, but there's this collective pretense that we want peace, when in reality we want Russia to accept the L.

while i dont disagree this is really not answering the core of my post, land retention. we can talk all day about what weapons they get to keep, even though the enforcement of that is a nightmare. and we can talk about long term NATO troops, although again it's a nightmare to enforce. but who gets what land? thats a border, that's legally recognized. and that's the real sticking point in negotiations. Russia wont give all of the land back, obviously. and Ukraine seems unwilling to accept most if not all of the territory loss.

imo the rest of it, including escalations of weapons, is just lip service to get around this. they're in a mexican standoff over the land, shifting sovereign borders is a serious thing. And while russia would clearly not be happy with long range missiles being used against them with US targeting, they hold the upper hand in the land dispute. ukraine cannot run them out, long range missiles or not, from their positions. in the entrenched positions russia holds land and wont be pushed off it. russia isnt going to respond with nukes even if they're long ranged missile attacked, it just weakens their overall position and risks losing some amount of chinese support. their best play is to turtle up and let ukraine indebt itself as well as letting europe and the US indebt themselves until they're tired of war enough to negotiate away land. the rest of the terms arent really binding in a sense that russia would reinvade, just cry foul on an international stage if broken. if say france brings in 10,000 troops against the treaty they'd be idiotic to attack nato troops. so its just a promise by ukraine. but land is land. If ukraine crosses its now a war of ukrainian aggression on russian terriroty.

This post was edited by thesnipa on May 27 2025 01:23pm

Would Ukraine even have the manpower for a hypothetical round 2 in a couple of years, even if they were pumped full of weapons by NATO post-ceasefire? Isn't the argument we've been hearing for almost 2 years from the (tacit or explicit) pro-Russia camp that "Ukraine is acutely running out of troops" and that their defeat is therefore inevitable anyway, so any Westerns arms supplies "are pointless and only prolongate the suffering"?

Merz has kinda walked back his comments, by the way. He's now retreating to the claim that range restrictions had already been lifted for quite some time and that he has just spilled the beans on this fact.



As a side note: if Russia was really striving for peace negotiations, they wouldn't intensify their drone and missile attacks. Hell, what's stopping Russia from announcing an unilateral pause for a meaningful timeframe, say a month or so? If Ukraine keeps shelling them during this timeframe, they have a huge PR win and can claim that "the fascist regime in Kyiv has revealed its true colors to the world". If Ukraine reciprocates, great, now you have a significant deescalation and both sides made a gesture of good will.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 27 2025 04:34pm

Why would Ukraine agree to disarm? Russia has shown they have no real interest in honoring agreements. Any agreement that gets a disarmed Ukraine is just putting a delay timer on the area again until Russia reinvades and gets what it couldn’t the first time.

I think the impasse isn't about the eastern territories Russia already controls. Any halfway sane Ukrainian knows that those are gone. Imho, the thing keeping this war going right now are that

1.) Russia wants to capture more land while they have the initiative and are making very slow but steady progress.
2.) Russia wants to force Ukraine to demilitarize, so that they are at their mercy going forward.
3.) Ukraine wants Western security guarantees, so they aren't at Russia's mercy going forward.
4.) NATO wants stable peace, but isn't willing to engage all that much for it; isn't willing to actually put the asses of their own troops on the line.


The crux imho is the complete lack of trust. Both sides fear that the other side would just use a ceasefire or negotiated peace to regroup and arm up for round 2.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 27 2025 04:45pm

Half the issue is they can't train replacement units fast enough, the newbies have to be integrated into existing units or they fold like lawn chairs, a few years break to train, integrate the new batch of youngins to grow up would help.

As far as intensifying both sides are going full throttle. Before Russia's clap back this past week, Ukraine sent a fuck ton of drones which allegedly even threatened Putin's helicopter ride back from Kursk. Russia is not going to announce an unilateral pause when their objective is the full Donetsk which Ukraine is adamently defending and absolutely refuses to yield no matter what.

Where is
Magic understanding of “geo politics” and he will solve it in one day ?
🤣🤣🤣🤣