I was told this would be over on day 1 of his presidency!!!

To be fair trump did tweet “Vladimir stop!!!” which basically solved the whole ordeal.

Somewhat double-edged- no mention of which specific Vladimir.

This post was edited by Norlander on May 22 2025 10:54am

Nope. Zero progress on Russia's willingness to negotiate a proper compromise, next to no progress on Ukraine's willingness either. And also zero progress in terms of ideas on how to solve the dicey, problematic questions (security guarantees, where to draw the lines, etc.)






And when he did and Zelensky agreed to negotiate in person, Putin refused to show up and instead sent a deliberately obscure third rate politician as Russia's representative. Make of that what you will.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 22 2025 11:22am

Russia and Ukraine are actually having some level of ceasefire talks now, and that is a significant step towards peace compared to the status quo ante of Ukraine refusing to talk to Russia under any circumstances
Zelensky challenging Putin to fly to Turkey on short notice unscheduled and without the kind of setup and advance security one would expect of a state visit was already a longshot, and its more important that the delegations actually met and what they hashed out, or failed to hash out. And in this case, it basically amounted to Russia and Ukraine both sticking to maximalist positions and not really agreeing on either side to start seeking compromises or negotiate the granular details necessary to find peace- but they did agree to a massive 1000:1000 PoW exchange. Which is itself curious and doubtful since its unlikely the rate of PoWs taken has been remotely comparable, and the last year of body repatriations has been repeatedly 40:900 or so in each swap

Trump has next to no control over Putin, but he has control over Zelenskyy. Trump wanted to drag them both to the table, "now kith", but he can't control Putin.

So he's done his part, for now. Russia has offered the table since the war began, but it makes sense to me he wants it done on his terms.

Now, them both finally atleast talking a little bit is nothing short of a massive step in ending the war. Trump wants to push Ukraine to make a resolution as fast as possible, but Russia is under no such timetable - if Ukraine refuses terms that are acceptable to Russia, they'll continue to do battle and occupy more and more territory as they have the upper hand on the battlefield. Ukraine has no resources and is dependent on US aid.

Essentially, the more Ukraine remains uppity making delusional peace demands, Russia will just continue to say no. And Trump will be more and more incensed with Ukraine until he pulls the plug. And if the plug is pulled, all of Ukraine falls.

This post was edited by El1te on May 22 2025 12:12pm

I wouldn't really call a meeting which basically ends with "we agree to disagree" a great breakthrough or the beginning of ongoing ceasefire talks.

Even if Putin himself was too scared to drag his sorry ass out of the Kremlin, he could have sent his foreign minister Lawrow to Istanbul. Instead sending the minister of culture, an obscure guy who nobody had ever heard of, was unmistakably a gesture of disrespect, a figurative middle finger toward Trump and his efforts at brokering a peace deal.





Trump has no influence on Putin because he refuses to use any leverage the US could wield against Russia. His whole theory of the case is the mistaken belief that Russia being wronged by the West is the root cause of this conflict and that appeasing Russia would therefore lead to peace. The way the Istanbul meeting went down imho once and for all proved this assumption wrong.




You're essentially arguing that Ukraine must surrender unconditionally and simply accept every single Russian demand.

Wat
We're applying the biggest set of sanctions any sovereign world power has applied on another in peacetime. We're sanctioning businesses, politicians, even innocent family members for their blood relations. We're supplying billions of dollars of weapons and intelligence to the side killing Russians, and American operatives are on the ground in Ukraine and almost certainly firing long range weapons that are killing Russians, an undeclared but direct act of war. We're applying so much "leverage" I didn't get to see Malofeev perform as a child prodigy

Joe Biden made two huge mistakes on escalation. He dithered when Putin threatened invasion and refused to defend Ukraine, letting Russia storm in unchallenged. Then he threw the full leverage of America against Russia and showed us to be impotent and toothless, all of the US and EU material and advanced weapons and we're losing the war. All the sanctions to destroy the Russian economy and they're prospering

This post was edited by Goomshill on May 22 2025 01:01pm

Let’s be honest - this war is effectively over.

Sure, it takes them some time to negotiate conditions and a lot of influencial, rich corporations are taking good care to secure their interest, but we all know how this movie will end. Sooner or later.

While previously it wasn’t clear whether escalation or deescalation would be in play.

@ second part - that is true, but that is only if the US cuts supports and the EU doesn't make up the difference satisfactorily. The fact is that if US support disappears, Ukraine no longer has the ability to stop Russia from rolling over them entirely. Now, if Europe ups their support to a level where they wouldn't immediately collapse, they still have some leverage.