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Apr 25 2025 06:11pm
It seems reasonable so Zelensky is unlikely to agree to that.



Some of the alleged counters to me are unlikely IMO.

Russia is not going to give away $300Bn in frozen funds. They wouldn't accept some piece meal slow walk on sanctions removal either i don't think.
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Apr 25 2025 07:15pm
Alleged deal and counter proposal by Ukraine. Not sure if real but seems realistic.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1915818486212825269


Doesn't seem realistic at all to me. If real, it's just more delusion from Ukraine.

They have no leverage and are still acting tough. If Trump gets fed up with their BS and walks away, Russia rolls over all of Ukraine in less than a week.
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Apr 25 2025 08:23pm
Alleged deal and counter proposal by Ukraine. Not sure if real but seems realistic.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1915818486212825269


Some of the alleged counters to me are unlikely IMO.

Russia is not going to give away $300Bn in frozen funds. They wouldn't accept some piece meal slow walk on sanctions removal either i don't think.


Russia also isn't going to agree to an article-5 style military alliance for Ukraine, whether its formally in NATO or not. Nor are they going to approve of unlimited / unrestricted military buildup in Ukraine by NATO countries.
What kind of agreement would it be from Russia's POV? They end the war that was made to thwart NATO expansion on their doorstep, and then we give them a "article 5-like agreement" and "no restrictions on the presence, weapons and operations of friendly foreign forces on the territory of Ukraine."
Russia is fine with Ukraine being in the EU economically and deepening its ties, but there's no realistic peace deal if Ukraine isn't demilitarized and neutral. Why should Russia stop fighting otherwise?

I think everything else is just minutiae that wouldn't hold it up. Russia doesn't really care about control of the ZNPP or EU economic agreements with Ukraine or non-hostile ceasefire monitoring. They do not need the west's approval to control Crimea or the DPR/LPR, we aren't giving away territory, they already took it and we have no say. They might even be willing to overlook the theft of their assets in the west, its just bean counting and swapped for other fungible assets. They might even accept western "security guarantees" for Ukraine if they are the kinds of vague EU bureaucratic empty promises instead of NATO troops setting up missile batteries in Kyiv.

I just don't see any way in which this proposal works as written, all the rest is irrelevant the sticking point is Zelensky's demand that Ukraine be built up as a military threat to Russia and Russia's demand that Ukraine not be a threat and the part where Ukraine is obviously losing the war to decide that very issue. If we won't recognize it, Russia has a very simple plan: Win.
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Apr 25 2025 10:22pm
Doesn't seem realistic at all to me. If real, it's just more delusion from Ukraine.

They have no leverage and are still acting tough. If Trump gets fed up with their BS and walks away, Russia rolls over all of Ukraine in less than a week.


Realistic as in I could actually see this being the ask/counterask.

Russia also isn't going to agree to an article-5 style military alliance for Ukraine, whether it’s formally in NATO or not. Nor are they going to approve of unlimited / unrestricted military buildup in Ukraine by NATO countries.
What kind of agreement would it be from Russia's POV? They end the war that was made to thwart NATO expansion on their doorstep, and then we give them a "article 5-like agreement" and "no restrictions on the presence, weapons and operations of friendly foreign forces on the territory of Ukraine."
Russia is fine with Ukraine being in the EU economically and deepening its ties, but there's no realistic peace deal if Ukraine isn't demilitarized and neutral. Why should Russia stop fighting otherwise?

I think everything else is just minutiae that wouldn't hold it up. Russia doesn't really care about control of the ZNPP or EU economic agreements with Ukraine or non-hostile ceasefire monitoring. They do not need the west's approval to control Crimea or the DPR/LPR, we aren't giving away territory, they already took it and we have no say. They might even be willing to overlook the theft of their assets in the west, its just bean counting and swapped for other fungible assets. They might even accept western "security guarantees" for Ukraine if they are the kinds of vague EU bureaucratic empty promises instead of NATO troops setting up missile batteries in Kyiv.

I just don't see any way in which this proposal works as written, all the rest is irrelevant the sticking point is Zelensky's demand that Ukraine be built up as a military threat to Russia and Russia's demand that Ukraine not be a threat and the part where Ukraine is obviously losing the war to decide that very issue. If we won't recognize it, Russia has a very simple plan: Win.


Good point, the pseudo article 5 alliance is probably a non starter.

I do think the first doc is actually a good compromise. Ukraine keeping the rest of the 4 oblasts and not having to give them up is a decent concession.
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Apr 26 2025 01:11am
Those observations are more precise and credible points then mine.

This post was edited by ferdia on Apr 26 2025 01:11am
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Apr 26 2025 08:39am
Russia also isn't going to agree to an article-5 style military alliance for Ukraine, whether its formally in NATO or not. Nor are they going to approve of unlimited / unrestricted military buildup in Ukraine by NATO countries.
What kind of agreement would it be from Russia's POV? They end the war that was made to thwart NATO expansion on their doorstep, and then we give them a "article 5-like agreement" and "no restrictions on the presence, weapons and operations of friendly foreign forces on the territory of Ukraine."
Russia is fine with Ukraine being in the EU economically and deepening its ties, but there's no realistic peace deal if Ukraine isn't demilitarized and neutral. Why should Russia stop fighting otherwise?

I think everything else is just minutiae that wouldn't hold it up. Russia doesn't really care about control of the ZNPP or EU economic agreements with Ukraine or non-hostile ceasefire monitoring. They do not need the west's approval to control Crimea or the DPR/LPR, we aren't giving away territory, they already took it and we have no say. They might even be willing to overlook the theft of their assets in the west, its just bean counting and swapped for other fungible assets. They might even accept western "security guarantees" for Ukraine if they are the kinds of vague EU bureaucratic empty promises instead of NATO troops setting up missile batteries in Kyiv.

I just don't see any way in which this proposal works as written, all the rest is irrelevant the sticking point is Zelensky's demand that Ukraine be built up as a military threat to Russia and Russia's demand that Ukraine not be a threat and the part where Ukraine is obviously losing the war to decide that very issue. If we won't recognize it, Russia has a very simple plan: Win.


The only way to counter this is the EU putting boots on the ground. This will result in China and NK OFFICIALLY joining the Frey. Probably making a terrible “pear harbor” like mistake and forcing the US hand.

Whether that ends in a China, Russia and NK conventional defeat (most likely at this point with all of Russia’s losses) OR a MAD doctrine result (possible but less likely) is the question.

Those 3 don’t have the capacity to fight a world war on 5 major fronts without losses that would lead to rebellion.

With that being said… let’s say they don’t make a Pearl Harbor like mistake and the EU/Nato continues its disagreements with the US… we could very well be looking at alliance lines changing and 3 super powers eventually becoming allies.

(We can’t pretend the Russian military is even at 50% right now. Their losses we KNOW are immense. The problem is they hide the true numbers. They can’t take on the EU at this point without help. The smart Russian move is doing what they are doing. Distracting everyone with “faux” talks while they cement their land.”

This post was edited by MadMan87 on Apr 26 2025 08:43am
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Apr 26 2025 08:53am
The only way to counter this is the EU putting boots on the ground. This will result in China and NK OFFICIALLY joining the Frey. Probably making a terrible “pear harbor” like mistake and forcing the US hand.

Whether that ends in a China, Russia and NK conventional defeat (most likely at this point with all of Russia’s losses) OR a MAD doctrine result (possible but less likely) is the question.

Those 3 don’t have the capacity to fight a world war on 5 major fronts without losses that would lead to rebellion.

With that being said… let’s say they don’t make a Pearl Harbor like mistake and the EU/Nato continues its disagreements with the US… we could very well be looking at alliance lines changing and 3 super powers eventually becoming allies.

(We can’t pretend the Russian military is even at 50% right now. Their losses we KNOW are immense. The problem is they hide the true numbers. They can’t take on the EU at this point without help. The smart Russian move is doing what they are doing. Distracting everyone with “faux” talks while they cement their land.”


Boots on the ground is world war 3. unless you are referring to a peace keeping force AFTER the war is over?
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Apr 26 2025 08:58am
The only way to counter this is the EU putting boots on the ground. This will result in China and NK OFFICIALLY joining the Frey. Probably making a terrible “pear harbor” like mistake and forcing the US hand.

Whether that ends in a China, Russia and NK conventional defeat (most likely at this point with all of Russia’s losses) OR a MAD doctrine result (possible but less likely) is the question.

Those 3 don’t have the capacity to fight a world war on 5 major fronts without losses that would lead to rebellion.

With that being said… let’s say they don’t make a Pearl Harbor like mistake and the EU/Nato continues its disagreements with the US… we could very well be looking at alliance lines changing and 3 super powers eventually becoming allies.

(We can’t pretend the Russian military is even at 50% right now. Their losses we KNOW are immense. The problem is they hide the true numbers. They can’t take on the EU at this point without help. The smart Russian move is doing what they are doing. Distracting everyone with “faux” talks while they cement their land.”


In a WW3 MAD scenario, how many men and civilians are you willing to lose.
Do you think you can decimate 90% of the Chinese population and the US losing only a few million or less? :mellow:

A rebellion...... I think you might be thinking that the Chinese are still in the squalor condition they are in back in the 60s and 70s.... Why you think they will rebel?
Your citizens wouldn't rebel if there is massive loss of men and civilian ?

Nobody is going to fight on 5 fronts, once it starts...there will be no conventional war.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Apr 26 2025 09:00am
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Apr 26 2025 09:02am
In a WW3 MAD scenario, how many men and civilians are you willing to lose.
Do you think you can decimate 90% of the Chinese population and the US losing only a few million or less? :mellow:

A rebellion...... I think you might be thinking that the Chinese are still in the squalor condition they are in back in the 60s and 70s.... Why you think they will rebel?
Your citizens wouldn't rebel if there is massive loss of men and civilian ?


Huh? In a MAD scenario most of us are goners. The US and Russia alone have enough nuclear capability to decimate well over 90% of the world population. In short, we all die. In short we also have the EXACT world leaders in charge right now for this to be a real scenario. Egotistical and narcissistic.

(Keep in mind both the US and Russia have single nukes capable of leveling a city like Tokyo with just ONE.)

This post was edited by MadMan87 on Apr 26 2025 09:12am
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Apr 26 2025 09:14am
Thus, a real nuclear conflict on the territory of Ukraine itself seems the most realistic. What are 25 million lives in exchange for peace for all of humanity for many years to come?


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