The dramatic, 1944-style collapse of the Ukrainian fronts has been predicted time and time again and never actually materialized. I wouldn't entirely rule it out, though, if Trump really cuts off all arms supplies and intelligence cooperation.


The big unknown, imho, is how much Russia wants to cut this war short vs continuing to push forward to capture more of Ukraine. That will largely determine how willing they are to take a peace deal which enshrines their current gains, but makes it harder for them to take another bite in the future.

Trump lashes out at Putin in emotional two-word rebuke as Ukraine peace talks collapse

'If we're in the midst of a negotiation, you could say that I was very angry, pissed off, when Putin said yesterday that – you know, when Putin started getting into Zelenskyy's credibility, because that's not going in the right location, you understand?' Trump told the Meet the Press host.

'What he wanted – and I mean, he thought, you know, started talking about new leadership,' he added. 'But new leadership means you're not gonna have a deal for a long time, right?'

The president vowed: 'If a deal isn't made, and if I think it was Russia's fault, I'm going to put secondary sanctions on Russia.'

'Anybody buying oil from Russia will not be able to sell their product, any product, not just oil, into the United States,' he said of the potential economic punishment for Moscow
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14552285/trump-emotional-outburst-putin-ukraine-war-turn.html

Balancing the scales after that oval office beat down me thinks!

even if there was a collapse of the Ukrainian army Russia does not have the manpower to push further, push all the way to Western Ukraine, as it would leave Russia open as a consequence of not having a fortified rear, because again, the Russian army is simply not that big. This is relative noting the Europeans have no men at all.



this would appear to support my view that Trump realizes that being unable to make Ukraine play ball, he is trying now to make Russia play ball. Good Luck with that.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 30 2025 12:23pm

Gotta disagree. Imho, Trump or his advisors have realized that Putin wasn't actually interested in a peace deal just yet and instead wanted to press his advantage on the battlefield to make further gains. Imho, the demands the Russian side kept making were clearly a delaying tactic. Seems like Trump has finally caught wind of it and understood that taking all the leverage against the Russians off the table preemptively wasn't the right strategy to move the negotiations forward.


I also disagree with the notion that Zelensky has called Trump's "bluff" - which bluff is that supposed to be? The Ukraine war isn't particularly popular in the US, and deeply unpopular with Trump's own base. Politically speaking, he could quite easily get away with pulling all US support for Ukraine. Particularly if the Europeans hustle to fill the gap, so that there are no ugly images of a collapsing Ukraine being immediately overrun once the US pull out. (Think of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.) And if he pulls US support, Ukraine is fucked in the medium-term.

The Partnership: The Secret History of the War in Ukraine.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/29/world/europe/us-ukraine-military-war-wiesbaden.html

Interesting reading. We all here thought US was more involved than was made public, but not to this extent jfc.

I wonder if this was published by the (very Dem aligned) NYT to try to put a wedge between USA and Russia in light of recent détente?

This post was edited by Malopox on Mar 30 2025 03:16pm

Don’t feel like creating a thread so putting this here. Chinese Panama Canal port owner refuses to sell to US. Wouldn’t be surprised if Trump orders military action here. I think this is a rare case where military action is justified for national security reasons.

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https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1906005945785733532?s=46

uh oh

a snippet:

"a New York Times investigation reveals that America was woven into the war far more intimately and broadly than previously understood. At critical moments, the partnership was the backbone of Ukrainian military operations that, by U.S. counts, have killed or wounded more than 700,000 Russian soldiers...Side by side in Wiesbaden’s mission command center, American and Ukrainian officers planned Kyiv’s counteroffensives. A vast American intelligence-collection effort both guided big-picture battle strategy and funneled precise targeting information down to Ukrainian soldiers in the field.

One European intelligence chief recalled being taken aback to learn how deeply enmeshed his N.A.T.O. counterparts had become in Ukrainian operations. “They are part of the kill chain now,” he said."


Do we all remember the howls of people in this thread saying that NATO was not in Ukraine ? I wont hold my breath for an apology of the obvious. Why cant people use reason, logic and common sense.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 31 2025 03:19am

Whole article takes an hour to read. Zerohedge made a nice summary of key takeaways.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/key-takeaways-nyts-secret-history-us-shocking-level-involvement-ukraine-war