If no deal is reached, im gona go out on a limb here and state that Russia is gona try and advance where the money (minerals) is.
That war machine theyve kicked into high gear aint stopping anytime soon, especially now that its less reliant on western parts to function.
https://i.postimg.cc/C1gNLNBt/1740601243084992.pngI mean its what they're already doing with their creeping advance. The DPR/LPR and the swathe of land east of the Dnipro that Putin openly set his aim upon, are the sweetbreads of Ukraine. The minerals yes, but also gas fields, arable land, population and developed industry. If the war ended on the lines today Russia would already have seized a vastly disproportionate amount of resources for the land in the country
And importantly, Russia has invested heavily in rebuilding the areas they've taken and solidifying their hold. They aren't on a pure war economy, their engineers are running around making housing and utilities behind the front lines. They are planning for a long game, a modernized eastern ukraine folded into Russia and productive. We are fighting for an impoverished west ukraine, the poorest half of the poorest EU country, bombed to rubble and with no male population anymore. That's our prize at the negotiating tables.