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Mar 1 2025 01:36pm
As I understand it:

https://i.imgur.com/NQaU5WV.png

everything EAST of the Dnipro River (the big river running down the center and veering off to the right) is on the table. If Ukraine refuses to negotiate I believe that in its entirety will be the spoils of war, as an Israeli might put it, that they will claim.
Russia does not want all of Ukraine, it would be too unmanageable (as i understand the logic).



That's what Russia wants to get long term. The war will restart inevitably at some point until they'll get to that point. Baltics are probably pissing their pants.
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Mar 1 2025 01:39pm
https://i.ibb.co/Cp0Dtmrt/NQaU5WV.png
That's what Russia wants to get long term. The war will restart inevitably at some point until they'll get to that point. Baltics are probably pissing their pants.


Seems doubtful. Putin has shown disinterest in a lot of that western territory. Both historical disinterest and military disinterest.

This post was edited by InsaneBobb on Mar 1 2025 01:41pm
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Mar 1 2025 01:47pm
https://i.ibb.co/Cp0Dtmrt/NQaU5WV.png
That's what Russia wants to get long term. The war will restart inevitably at some point until they'll get to that point. Baltics are probably pissing their pants.


My guess is that they will acquire all this land with the incoming peace treaty.

They're victorious, Ukraine is in no position to oppose their demands, Ukraine should be thankful if Russia will leave them Kiev, or perhaps Kiev will be partitioned. After all, Lviv is the cultural capital of Western Ukraine which Russia has no claim to, but the history of Kiev and Russia goes way back. Russia is also not about to forsake Transnistria in their victory so they'll have to link up the land bridge as you illustrated to incorporate them into the Federation

This post was edited by El1te on Mar 1 2025 01:49pm
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Mar 1 2025 01:49pm
Seems doubtful. Putin has shown disinterest in a lot of that western territory. Both historical disinterest and military disinterest.


No way, Putin leaves Odessa alone and allows Ukraine entrance to the see to fuck up Russia ships/transport. They ignored them because Ukraine was considered a brother nation. Now, Putin wouldn't want the situation to repeat itself again. Him or his successor will push for Odessa, Mikolaev is on the way on the supply route, theyl'll take them as well. Then, they'll try to minimize the border they have to patrol meaning flattening the dent Ukrainian territory does into Russia's heartland. The more flat that dent is the easier it is to defend against future aggressions. Rivers are natural barriers.

It's a very ugly ongoing divorce with Russia being the woman taking half of the stuff, the house and some more.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Mar 1 2025 01:50pm
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Mar 1 2025 01:55pm
No way, Putin leaves Odessa alone and allows Ukraine entrance to the see to fuck up Russia ships/transport. They ignored them because Ukraine was considered a brother nation. Now, Putin wouldn't want the situation to repeat itself again. Him or his successor will push for Odessa, Mikolaev is on the way on the supply route, theyl'll take them as well. Then, they'll try to minimize the border they have to patrol meaning flattening the dent Ukrainian territory does into Russia. The more flat that dent is the easier it is to defend against future aggressions. Rivers are natural barriers.


That's not really how Russian tactics work though. That's a western view of strategy. The Russian view is retreat and attrition. They willingly cede territory to an invader, and use grinding layers of fortifications and artillery on firm, winterized bulkheads, to absolutely cripple invading forces.

The idea that they're going to push all the way to Kiev is absurd. And they don't want the Bolshevik population centers. All that would cause is problems. They seek the ethnic Russian majorities. They're still seeking to provide Russians defense against the Asov Nazis who're trying to butcher them.

Putin doesn't have the time or the successor to try to revive the USSR, and he's shown no inclination. But it's very clear based on the State of Ukraine that Kiev cannot control Crimea or the Donbas, and some of the surrounding region should likewise fall under Russian Protectorate status. The people are Russian. The Bolsheviks kill the Russians.
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Mar 1 2025 02:01pm
That's not really how Russian tactics work though. That's a western view of strategy. The Russian view is retreat and attrition. They willingly cede territory to an invader, and use grinding layers of fortifications and artillery on firm, winterized bulkheads, to absolutely cripple invading forces.

The idea that they're going to push all the way to Kiev is absurd. And they don't want the Bolshevik population centers. All that would cause is problems. They seek the ethnic Russian majorities. They're still seeking to provide Russians defense against the Asov Nazis who're trying to butcher them.

Putin doesn't have the time or the successor to try to revive the USSR, and he's shown no inclination. But it's very clear based on the State of Ukraine that Kiev cannot control Crimea or the Donbas, and some of the surrounding region should likewise fall under Russian Protectorate status. The people are Russian. The Bolsheviks kill the Russians.


Let's agree to disagree then.
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Mar 1 2025 02:04pm
That's not really how Russian tactics work though. That's a western view of strategy. The Russian view is retreat and attrition. They willingly cede territory to an invader, and use grinding layers of fortifications and artillery on firm, winterized bulkheads, to absolutely cripple invading forces.

The idea that they're going to push all the way to Kiev is absurd. And they don't want the Bolshevik population centers. All that would cause is problems. They seek the ethnic Russian majorities. They're still seeking to provide Russians defense against the Asov Nazis who're trying to butcher them.

Putin doesn't have the time or the successor to try to revive the USSR, and he's shown no inclination. But it's very clear based on the State of Ukraine that Kiev cannot control Crimea or the Donbas, and some of the surrounding region should likewise fall under Russian Protectorate status. The people are Russian. The Bolsheviks kill the Russians.


They don't need to push to Kiev if the land is ceded in a deal.

This post was edited by El1te on Mar 1 2025 02:05pm
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Mar 1 2025 02:08pm
They don't need to push to Kiev if the land is ceded in a deal.


They won't cede the land now and Russia won't ask for it. They'll push for it in the future. That's why Europe has to arm itself to the teeth till then for deterrence. That's the only way to achieve lasting peace.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Mar 1 2025 02:21pm
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Mar 1 2025 02:11pm
Let's agree to disagree then.


Or we'll not. Putin has stated his position. Your claims on his motivations match neither his actions nor his words.

The only way Russia is pushing that far west is if Kiev FORCES Russia to conquer them to stop the killing. And even then, they still won't be interested in western Ukraine. It's about the people, not the land.
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Mar 1 2025 02:21pm
https://i.ibb.co/Cp0Dtmrt/NQaU5WV.png
That's what Russia wants to get long term. The war will restart inevitably at some point until they'll get to that point. Baltics are probably pissing their pants.


yes this is accurate (the area). i am not convinced they will go back to war if there is a peace, but i accept the western narrative is that russia wants to invade europe ( i just dont agree with it ). i mean, if there is no negotiation, then the area you highlighted...ye
i.e. maybe not all of that if they say peace today, but in a few months time all bets are off and the area you highlighted looks to be the area of interest.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 1 2025 02:22pm
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