d2jsp
Log InRegister
d2jsp Forums > Off-Topic > General Chat > Political & Religious Debate > Russia / Ukraine
Prev1477747784779478047815001Next
Closed New Topic New Poll
Member
Posts: 31,666
Joined: Dec 29 2016
Gold: 291,611.20
Warn: 10%
Mar 1 2025 03:58am
No matter what Trump says, it already were the Europeans which were footing the bulk of the bill for this war. Be it arms supplies, financial assistance, feeding 10 million Ukrainian refugees spread across the continent or the economic fallout. Likewise, it was always obvious that the Europeans would foot most of the rebuilding effort post-war.

This will only be a massive win for North America if the peace deal which will be signed in the coming months actually holds up in the long run and succeeds in pacifying this conflict once and for all.


You don't get to count economic fallout of your politicians shutting down your industries to 'stick it to putin' as a contribution to the war effort.
It's the EU's fault they spent a trillion dollars on energy subsidies.
Member
Posts: 54,137
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,945.67
Mar 1 2025 04:03am
This is precisely what was being litigated in front of the whole world at this press conference. It is a question of military dominance. The only guarantee Ukraine can have against Russia being a threat, is a military threat that would make invasion impossible. That means NATO presence, or nukes. Or simply beating Russia in a war and the Russians capitulating. That's the thing about victors in a war, the losers don't get to dictate the terms and demand a future where they have the dominant position.

Imho, you're falling for a false dilemma fallacy here. A Ukrainian or Russian capitulation aren't the only possible outcomes. "Russia ultimately accomplishes its core goals, but it was so painful and costly that they will think twice about invading Ukraine again" is a middle of the road outcome, and clearly the one the West had been striving for for the past 2 years, roughly since the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed and it became clear that Crimea and the DPR/LPR were gone.


Quote
What guarantee did imperial japan have that America wouldn't pillage the japanese homelands and take their women as sex slaves like they had done in china and korea? Unconditional surrender. What guarantees did nazi germany have? When the Israelis and Palestinians or Hezbollah agree to their umpteenth ceasefire, what guarantees do they get it will never happen again?

Same theme: there are different degrees to winning a war. Ukraine's current position isn't nearly as hopeless as that of Imperial Japan or Nazi Germany at the end of WW2. The Russians aren't steamrolling across Ukraine like the Red Army steamrolled in 1944 after Operation Bagration. Nor are they able to detonate nukes over Ukrainian cities at will without any consequence like the USAF did in Japan in 1945.


------------------------------------------------


Trump is right to seek an end to this war, but I still disagree with his negotiating tactic. More strategic ambiguity would have served him well, there was no need to make his intentions of dropping Ukraine like a hot potato public.

Member
Posts: 54,137
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,945.67
Mar 1 2025 04:07am
You don't get to count economic fallout of your politicians shutting down your industries to 'stick it to putin' as a contribution to the war effort.
It's the EU's fault they spent a trillion dollars on energy subsidies.


Despite their rosy rhetoric, half of Europe continued (or, in some cases: continues) to buy Russian gas and oil. It were the Russians which shut down their pipelines using the flimsiest of excuses in the summer of 2022. And just to reiterate: the Russians closing the gas tap happened weeks before the attack on the NS pipelines.
Member
Posts: 18,368
Joined: Jan 8 2022
Gold: 22,843.67
Mar 1 2025 04:09am
This is precisely what was being litigated in front of the whole world at this press conference. It is a question of military dominance. The only guarantee Ukraine can have against Russia being a threat, is a military threat that would make invasion impossible. That means NATO presence, or nukes. Or simply beating Russia in a war and the Russians capitulating. That's the thing about victors in a war, the losers don't get to dictate the terms and demand a future where they have the dominant position. What guarantee did imperial japan have that America wouldn't pillage the japanese homelands and take their women as sex slaves like they had done in china and korea? Unconditional surrender. What guarantees did nazi germany have? When the Israelis and Palestinians or Hezbollah agree to their umpteenth ceasefire, what guarantees do they get it will never happen again?

You are hitting the nail on the head that NATO was never going to commit to Ukraine when it risks world war 3. And its been clear since the war began, and its why I kept calling out how suicidal and destructive the ukrainian ultranationlists infecting the Biden administration were, because they weren't just compromising American interests, they were going to get get Ukraine destroyed in the pull between east and west. Russia was always willing to invest force to secure their own back yard and we weren't willing to step in with a nuclear ultimatum that we would defend Ukraine even if it meant the brink of armageddon. We don't know whether such a threat would be a bluff or get called or get us all killed, because Biden meekly stood back and told Russia directly we would not fight on Ukraine's behalf and stood down so very publicly. And all the consequences have played out just as predictably as we expected, and when the next step we expect is all those weapons in the hands of an azovite coup, well that doesn't bode well


I think the best form of guarantee Ukraine could have had from Russia invading was to work with both the West and Russia economically, so that the war wouldn’t be in anyone’s interest.

But, instead, they chose to be NATO’s pawn in putting more and more pressure on Russia, moving military bases closer to the Russian border. Also a completely corrupt country, with bioweapon labs, no rule of law, oligarchs laundering public money, etc.
Member
Posts: 56,400
Joined: Jan 19 2007
Gold: 585,553.49
Mar 1 2025 04:11am
The ex-wife anology is pretty shit right now.
Member
Posts: 50,829
Joined: Jan 20 2010
Gold: 5,846.00
Mar 1 2025 04:25am
Imho, you're falling for a false dilemma fallacy here. A Ukrainian or Russian capitulation aren't the only possible outcomes. "Russia ultimately accomplishes its core goals, but it was so painful and costly that they will think twice about invading Ukraine again" is a middle of the road outcome, and clearly the one the West had been striving for for the past 2 years, roughly since the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed and it became clear that Crimea and the DPR/LPR were gone.


We could sell that as a spin, we could wrap up as loss in that language, but Zelensky got up in the oval office and bluntly said that is not enough. Every word out of his mouth was about a security guarantee. A resource deal only as a stepping stone to a security guarantee, it being his condition for any ceasefire. Well we're already shipping him more weapons than we did to the allies in WW2 lend lease, and he's talking about a NATO foothold.

I think the best form of guarantee Ukraine could have had from Russia invading was to work with both the West and Russia economically, so that the war wouldn’t be in anyone’s interest.

But, instead, they chose to be NATO’s pawn in putting more and more pressure on Russia, moving military bases closer to the Russian border. Also a completely corrupt country, with bioweapon labs, no rule of law, oligarchs laundering public money, etc.


The LNG thing is a great example of how that could have been done. Baltic states, Ukraine included, didn't want to be reliant on Russian gas that could be leveraged against them. By having LNG terminals they make American gas competitive- which doesn't necessarily make them reliant entirely on the west, instead it gives an economic pressure on Russia to not weaponize the gas supply and keep that economic relationship steady. And that was also exactly what Trump was pursuing in his first term foreign policy. But along came Dark Brandon and we instead blew up the Russian pipelines in a naked bit of economic warfare. Without economic incentive, Russia had no reason to compromise and only dug in harder and invested more in the war.
Member
Posts: 56,400
Joined: Jan 19 2007
Gold: 585,553.49
Mar 1 2025 04:31am
let see where zelensky is in 3 months time. i.e. 01/06/2025.
Member
Posts: 18,368
Joined: Jan 8 2022
Gold: 22,843.67
Mar 1 2025 04:52am
But along came Dark Brandon and we instead blew up the Russian pipelines in a naked bit of economic warfare. Without economic incentive, Russia had no reason to compromise and only dug in harder and invested more in the war.


I even heard recently that the war was not only indirectly provoked by NATO expansion but also directly triggered by communicating to Putin the rockets will be put on the Russian border.

Obviously can’t know for sure if that’s true or not, but it would make sense to me.

Not only did Biden represented the forces of evil in this world that would do exactly such a thing, but also this whole initial phase of invasion didn’t look well planned in advance by Russia. More like a half-rushed decision.
Member
Posts: 9,701
Joined: Mar 2 2006
Gold: 1,590.00
Mar 1 2025 05:05am
I even heard recently that the war was not only indirectly provoked by NATO expansion but also directly triggered by communicating to Putin the rockets will be put on the Russian border.

Obviously can’t know for sure if that’s true or not, but it would make sense to me.

Not only did Biden represented the forces of evil in this world that would do exactly such a thing, but also this whole initial phase of invasion didn’t look well planned in advance by Russia. More like a half-rushed decision.


This is a proxy war and the US decides when the proxy war is over, not its proxies.

What has been done to Ukraine over the past decade is disgusting, it was used to bleed Russia and now its utility is over.

Member
Posts: 18,368
Joined: Jan 8 2022
Gold: 22,843.67
Mar 1 2025 05:15am
This is a proxy war and the US decides when the proxy war is over, not its proxies.

What has been done to Ukraine over the past decade is disgusting, it was used to bleed Russia and now its utility is over.

https://i.imgur.com/UFKgmas.jpeg


I agree.

Although it looks like Europe is now making some false promises to Zelensky to convince him to continue the war and throw even more innocent people into the meat grinder.

But the end result will be the same (or worse). Just more people will die for it :(

This post was edited by kayko on Mar 1 2025 05:16am
Go Back To Political & Religious Debate Topic List
Prev1477747784779478047815001Next
Closed New Topic New Poll