Ukraine's fate is still up in the air. The American interests in Ukraine aren't. That's one distinction to be made in all this.
We're not winning the war, we're not rebuilding the iron curtain and perpetuating a forever proxy war against Russia. That is going to come to an end. Russia is not going to invade the baltics, NATO is going to resume a rough approximation of the status quo ante when the dust is settled. Maybe the EU will question how much of a burden it has from Ukraine, but honestly it won't trouble us much. Our interests are mostly settled, maybe we can strike up deals with Ukraine and Russia for rebuilding and resources but its not really a major consideration in the scope of the world, not compared to hostilities between the two biggest nuclear powers.
But for Ukrainians? This ball is in their court, I can't tell you how this ends. This is absolutely the kind of step that could be written in history books as presaging the fall of the zelensky regime and western government and create a power vacuum like we've been dreading for a few years now, and as I pointed out repeatedly, the heavily armed Nazis who already overthrew one government, are the obvious inheritors in a vacuum. Can Zelensky appeal to the EU to prop him up and be the new puppetmasters? Will he come back to Trump with his tail tucked between his legs? I don't know. Its chaos
I dont agree that Ukraine's fate is still up in the air, there is no pathway to victory, rather it is a question of how much land Russia is going to steal (and how much more resources the US and Russia will steal). It has to be acknowledged that its trajectory was determined by listening to the false promises of successive American Governments. I believe Ukrainian Governments (not just the current one) have been incredible naive here. However, collectively the west falls into this boat as well, not just the previous Biden Administration. Relating to US plans to rape Ukraine of its natural resources, and probably share the spoils with Russia, this looks to be a certainty. The EU appears to be grandstanding with lofty ideas but no military force capable of supporting them.
I honestly do not believe, based on the incredible events over the past few days, that Zelensky will be able to remain as the leader of Ukraine. Events are happening way too fast. Unfortunately what we are seeing from Europe is a lot of words but no action. All of them are terrified of Trump. The most likely scenario is a sidelining of Zelensky in some way. With Zelensky removed, (one way or the other) they will then install someone more willing to end the war. This will wreck Ukraine both as a country and society for generations.